The Derby-A look back

[For The Lead]

There are a couple of things that "Doc" said that most people seem to forget.
1 - when handicapping the derby, only use horses that have finished first or second in Grade I or Grade II races.
2 - the last line is the line...unless there is a "valid" reason to go back one line

To these points I will add one of my own that I have posted numerous times and that is;
eliminate horses with a ML=>20/1


If you followed these three easy steps, you would have started your handicapping with the following horses;
3,4,5,6,8,11,14,15 and 19.

I don't use any Sartin software or RDSS, however, I did run these horses through ENERGY and have posted the screen shots below.

If you look at the first screen, you will see that #11 and #15 have a much lower TOTAL ENERGY than the rest of the contenders, which means they are that much slower, and for that reason I eliminated them. That leaves seven horses remaining.

Now ENERGY does not have a "line score", but it is easy enough to calculate yourself. Just add the rankings across from screen 4 for each horse from left to right. This is the way they would line up:
#5 = 17
#19 = 18
#8 = 19
#14 = 21
#3 = 27
#4 = 27
#6 = 32

In addition, the "variegate" indicated "EARLY" (see screen 3). #19 was the third ranked "EARLY" horse. Coupling the variegate and the line score together, the eventual winner is clearly a play.

Also, although the #6 horse does not get a favorable line score, it is the "energizer" and owns the first two fractions in the race as seen on screen 5, where it is the 0.00 horse for the first two fractions. These are "serious" contenders.

As you are all aware by now, the final result was #19 first and #6 second.

There are no tricks or gimmicks here, just straight forward practices.