Penn 5th 6/11

[mikesal57]

looks like all but one likes it up front..

#4 at 12-1 looks like the only closer

after a little layoff..broke slow but made up lots of lengths..
dropping down in class and winning jock back on

gl

mike

[mikesal57]

back to normal...2nd

[alydar_ David]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

looks like all but one likes it up front..

#4 at 12-1 looks like the only closer

after a little layoff..broke slow but made up lots of lengths..
dropping down in class and winning jock back on

gl

mike

That all made sense to me. Out of curiosity I wondered how the race would show up on readouts.

                                                             Par Times    
           F1      F2      SC      F3     FT             22.1  45.2  110.6 
  Pace    21.2    22.1    43.3    24.6   109.3               2nd Call B/L  
  =============================================          ==================
  #5 PI   21.2*   22.1*   43.3*   26.0   109.3*          #5 PI         0.00
  #3 PE   21.2*   22.4    43.6    27.0   110.6           #3 PE         0.96
  #1 AC   22.0    23.4    45.4    26.3   111.7           #7 SL         6.45
  #7 SL   22.6    22.8    45.4    25.5   110.9           #1 AC         6.45
  #4 RO   23.6    22.6    46.2    24.6*  110.8           #4 RO         8.75

                                             PACE RATINGS          FAIR    O/L 
 NAME    A P    E P    L P        NAME    EPR   LPR   TOT  DIF     ODDS   ODDS 
 ==========================       ============================     =========== 
 #5 PI  57.57  60.97  55.87       #5 PI   100    87   187  -13     2.2     3.3 
 #3 PE  56.66  60.55  54.72       #3 PE    98    82   180  -16     4.4     6.7 
 #7 SL  56.02  58.15  54.96       #4 RO    85    94   179    9     5.0     7.6 
 #4 RO  55.98  57.14  55.40       #7 SL    89    89   178    0     5.8     8.7 
 #1 AC  55.50  58.15  54.17       #1 AC    89    86   175   -3     9.7    14.6 

                                                                            
           A P  E P  L P  F T  1+3  2+3  2FR  L E  SDP   SSR    MED E   R/S 
           ===  ===  ===  ===  ===  ===  ===  ===  ===   ===    =====  =====
 #5 PI      1    1    1    1    1    2    1    2    1     96    70.61    E  
 #3 PE      2    2    4    2    2    4    2    4    2     90    71.26    E  
 #7 SL      3    3    3    3    3    3    3    3    4     88    69.20    E  
 #4 RO      3    5    2    3    5    1    3    1    2     89    68.06    S  
 #1 AC      5    3    5    5    3    5    5    5    5     85    69.87    E

Even though #5 has a big 7 point advantage in TPR (which is generally tough to beat) his EPR/LPR balance is really of whack with a -13 difference.

The next choice, #3, is in a similar boat.

You'll note both of them have Median Energy of over 70.0 which usually indicates one, if not both, of them will throw in the towel before the race is over.

You can also see that they all have an "E" running style except your #4 which carries a "S" designation.

This is after the fact, but in spite of all the above I think I'd still have to have bet #5 at those almost 50% overlay odds.

At 12-1 I'd have been all over your #4 horse, but I think I'd have let him go at the actual 3.4 odds shown in the result chart.

Sharp race you picked though. These are the one of the kinds of races that can make you some nice scores when you connect.

[mikesal57]

thxs AD...didnt realize track was "sloppy" till I watched it..winner had a big slop win

mike

get em next time

[Capcondo]

Hello,

First off, I don't want what I'm about to say to be construed as a criticism. We're all here to remind each other of variou parts of the matchup that come to mind in a particular race.

Sitting in the San Jose, CA airport with a three hour delay, I had time to take a look at this race (before checking the results) and came to a different conclusion. The 5 horse looks like the earliest horse. He ran a 21.3 43.4 while fighting to hold his position in his last race at Philly. He is the FPLR horse. Looking further back, I see two races on the turf against fast fractions where he also held his position. The one at Calder I discount to a degree because the turf course there is so fast. The one at GP is 21.1 42.4 which is amazing. Now, to the other dirt races. He has one against a 22 and 46 where he was fighting in the slop and one against a 22 46.2 at Calder which is a very slow dirt track.

Who can run with him? The three has shown ONE TIME he can run a 21.3 44.1 at Penn National. He hasn't done that any other time. I liked the 5 because he seemed to be much faster early than anyone else in a speed filled field.

I saw one place where the man with the Hat said that just because there are two (or more) speed horses in a field doe not mean that one of the speed horses won't win.

Above, you said that the 4 was 12/1 on the ML. Price jump around a lot at that track with all the off-track money (I looked that track up on mapquest once; it's in the middle of no where). The 4 ended up going off at 3/1 and the 5 paid $8.20.

Tim

[Bill Lyster]

I know that this comment is not pure matching, but I was wondering if anyone else had noted or used the "Adjusted" screen while trying to detemine which of the early horses might prevail in a head to head duel?

In at least two recent match up race posts where the proper call was OTE, one of the E's managed to get the place position and in each case it was an E that in the raw time matchup I had disregarded as one of several that would not be able to withstand the early pressure. What I saw upon further review was that the surviving E horse when viewed on the adjust screen was faster than I originally thought.

Lately we have seen some posts of multiple E's where one actually won because it outran the other E's and then had no viable Martians to run them down in the last 16th.

Just curious of how valid the use of the "Adjusted" screen is seen by others in the process of verifying the visual matchup?

Thanks,

Bill

[Charlie D]

Hi Bill

I can't help with your adjusted query, however on the Matching E, PRM Race 9 i posted, if you look and go with Line 2 of #6 there is only one winner.

I talked myself out of going with it, so ended up betting the 2nd and 3rd in that race.