PHA -- "What in tarnation...?" - Pace and Cap

alydar_ David · 10-11-2005, 03:43 PM

I feel like Yosemite Same, "What in tarnation...?"

Look at these mutuels for today so far:

36.80
6.60
7.00
102.60
12.00
30.00

Look at Sunday's payoffs:

5.40
17.40
3.20
47.20
5.00
62.80
18.00

The thing is, with a lot of these big prices...well, there's really no way you can get them.

There are too many that defy explanation -- horses that are 0 for everything in every category.

Something doesn't smell right. I'm done with this track, at least for a while.

Baffalator · 10-11-2005, 07:23 PM

Horses are winning with now apparent foundation. New handicapping method for Philly Park. Eliminate top five horses in current year earnings. Eliminate any horse that has not finished last in one of it's last three starts.

Now you may have a chance.

Binder · 10-12-2005, 12:45 AM

Hi David
some thoughts
Since they re did the track at Philly Park Its been dry and fast
very little rain
If you look at my Philly models You will see how Early = low prices its been
Sunday the track was good Today it was muddy

I have no idea about the mud, I went back and checked Sunday. I looked at race 8 since these were the better horses on this card
The winner # 10 Nice boy comes up VDC 1 .If you can find a reason to go back to line 5
Here is the PP for The winner
and some other readouts with the other horses I used
Total Energy/Primary line score / Hide to top 5

PN#	Name	Line	T.E.R	EPR	LPR	CPR	TT	HE	FW	FX	PLS Rank	Hide
1	Storm	3	3	2	4	3	3	3	1	3	3	-
2	Romol	2	4	1	5	5	2	5	3	5	4	-
4	Luvyo	3	7	7	4	7	6	5	7	7	6	X
7	Last	3	2	5	1	2	1	1	4	4	2	-
8	Brians	1	5	4	3	4	5	4	5	2	5	-
10	Nice	5	1	3	2	1	4	2	2	1	1	-
11	Two	2	4	3	5	5	4	5	6	4	6	1

BL/BL with VDC / hides

PN#	Name	Line	SR	Bal	LS	Odds	M/L	V_DC	Hide
10	Nice	5	83	3	21.8	8-5	15/1	1	-
1	Storm	3	82	7	20.8	9-5	15/1	3	-
7	Last	3	82	6	18.8	5/2	15/1	2	-
8	Brians	1	81	8	14.3	7/2	6/1	4	-
2	Romlo	2	76	6	13.8	4/1	12/1	4	-
11	Two	2	79	8	10.0	5/1	20/1	5	X
4	LuvYo	3	75	9	3.0	20/1	12/1	6	X

Final BL/BL with VDC / hides

PN#	Name	Line	SR	Bal	LS	Odds	M/L	V_DC	Hide
10	Nice	5	83	3	21.8	8-5	15/1	1	-
1	Storm	3	82	7	20.8	9-5	15/1	3	-
7	Last	3	82	6	18.8	5/2	15/1	2	-
8	Brians	1	81	8	14.3	7/2	6/1	4	-
2	Romlo	2	76	6	13.8	4/1	12/1	4	-

shoeless · 10-12-2005, 06:56 AM

Bill,If I was doing that horse I would throw him out.My figuring is his race 2 back was terrible it was the same distance as line 5 and in line 2 he was dropping class.I wouldnt go back 147 days when his line 2 back was from 62 days back.But I guess that's the reason you have mastered Val and I couldnt you follow directions. Shoeless

Binder · 10-12-2005, 05:21 PM

I was wondering , when you use Val or Spec,Synthesis Pl4
Do you look at the F2
where you can pick your lines that are the original line ?
Not the Adjusted Normalized equalized?

shoeless · 10-12-2005, 09:21 PM

Bill, Using Synergism it's all manual so Im picking stuff right from the racing form.I basically stick with sprints and try to pick pacelines within the Brohammer approach.In same class I want the horse within 2.5 lenghts at the stretch call .If dropping class I want the horse up close at the 2nd call.But by seeing you in action you really have mastered the Val program.And just in case someone doesnt believe it you really do stick 100% to Doc's rules.Shoeless

socantra · 10-14-2005, 03:12 PM

Nice call binder. That 5 back is a hard one to get to, but it is the third race back after a two month layoff and its only returning to the kinds of numbers it ran before the layoff.

Add to that the workout a week ago. I don't know if I could have made the leap or not off those last two dismal sprints, but it not only is following Doc's instructions, its sound longshot handicapping by anyone's standards.

Again, Good Call
Dick...

10-11-2005, 03:43 PM	#1
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	PHA -- "What in tarnation...?" I feel like Yosemite Same, "What in tarnation...?" Look at these mutuels for today so far: 36.80 6.60 7.00 102.60 12.00 30.00 Look at Sunday's payoffs: 5.40 17.40 3.20 47.20 5.00 62.80 18.00 The thing is, with a lot of these big prices...well, there's really no way you can get them. There are too many that defy explanation -- horses that are 0 for everything in every category. Something doesn't smell right. I'm done with this track, at least for a while.

10-11-2005, 07:23 PM	#2
Baffalator AlwNW2X Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 24	Phixadephia Park Horses are winning with now apparent foundation. New handicapping method for Philly Park. Eliminate top five horses in current year earnings. Eliminate any horse that has not finished last in one of it's last three starts. Now you may have a chance.

10-12-2005, 05:21 PM	#5
Binder Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Northern NJ Posts: 674	Thanks Jeff I was wondering , when you use Val or Spec,Synthesis Pl4 Do you look at the F2 where you can pick your lines that are the original line ? Not the Adjusted Normalized equalized?

10-12-2005, 06:56 AM	#4
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,610	Bill,If I was doing that horse I would throw him out.My figuring is his race 2 back was terrible it was the same distance as line 5 and in line 2 he was dropping class.I wouldnt go back 147 days when his line 2 back was from 62 days back.But I guess that's the reason you have mastered Val and I couldnt you follow directions. Shoeless

10-12-2005, 09:21 PM	#6
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,610	Bill, Using Synergism it's all manual so Im picking stuff right from the racing form.I basically stick with sprints and try to pick pacelines within the Brohammer approach.In same class I want the horse within 2.5 lenghts at the stretch call .If dropping class I want the horse up close at the 2nd call.But by seeing you in action you really have mastered the Val program.And just in case someone doesnt believe it you really do stick 100% to Doc's rules.Shoeless

10-14-2005, 03:12 PM	#7
socantra Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Norman, OK Posts: 387	Nice call binder. That 5 back is a hard one to get to, but it is the third race back after a two month layoff and its only returning to the kinds of numbers it ran before the layoff. Add to that the workout a week ago. I don't know if I could have made the leap or not off those last two dismal sprints, but it not only is following Doc's instructions, its sound longshot handicapping by anyone's standards. Again, Good Call Dick...