SYN4 -- second cycle & Total stats

[alydar_ David]

This cycle, like the previous one, is based on non-maiden dirt races only. Ten of the 95 win bets were made at WO. No other polytrack venue was played.

Paceline selection was made selecting the best of the last three comparable races. Nothing fancy was involved.



The SYN4 top pick for the second cycle showed an ROI of 0.74. In other words it lost money. I got back 74 cents for every dollar invested.

The SYN4 second pick for the second cycle showed an ROI of 1.36. In other words I got back $1.36 for every dollar invested.

Boxing the top two in the exacta was about break even.

Boxing the top three in the exacta was not profitable.

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I like to see at least an 80% CL -- Confidence Level -- to know I'm not just blowing smoke...uh, somewhere. ;>)

The flat total ROI's for both cycles:

Top Pick to Win: 1.43 with 22% win rate (70% CL)

Second Choice to Win: 1.19 with 28% win rate (45% CL)

Flat betting the top two to win: 1.60 with 50% win rate (97% CL)

Boxing the top two in the exacta: 1.66 with 13% win rate (60% CL)

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Observations:

I could have further improved my results by being more selective about the races I played.

If I'd only played sprints I'd have picked up another. 0.02 in ROI

If I'd skipped races for 3YO+ I'd have picked up another 0.15 in ROI

If I'd flat bet the top two horses to win I'd have gotten back an ROI of 1.60 instead of the ROI of 1.34 I actually made by "being clever" betting 60%/40% at times.

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Conclusions: Flat betting the top two horses to win with SYN4 is profitable. Boxing them in the exacta may be profitable.

[admin]

Thank you David

You say best of the last 3 nothing fancy
do you enter every horse or do you eliminate horses ?

Bill

[alydar_ David]

Originally Posted by admin

Thank you David

You say best of the last 3 nothing fancy
do you enter every horse or do you eliminate horses ?

Bill

Hi Bill,

I enter every horse one by one as I come to them. I finish the first horse before I even look at the second.