selecting contenders

[shoeless]

When I look at a card in the racing form I will look over the races to see
which ones I want to put the most money into.I know DM has a program that will pick
out certain races he likes to play.Wondering when people here use RDSS do
they do the same.

[mrhug]

I have really enjoyed this post, and as a beginner (14 months) wish we would have more like them. I really enjoy reading about the successes of other members and how they are accomplishing their success. However, it can become confusing very quickly.
DM
I have a question about how you are using NP. I see where each horse has a range posted within RDSS NP. However, are you establishing a speed rating for the current race and then comparing this rating to each horses range in NP? If so would you please explain in depth how you are doing it and if not then how exactly do you eliminate non contenders with NP.
Just trying to understand.
Thanks
Melvin

[mrhug]

Originally Posted by mrhug

I have really enjoyed this post, and as a beginner (14 months) wish we would have more like them. I really enjoy reading about the successes of other members and how they are accomplishing their success. However, it can become confusing very quickly.
DM
I have a question about how you are using NP. I see where each horse has a range posted within RDSS NP. However, are you establishing a speed rating for the current race and then comparing this rating to each horses range in NP? If so would you please explain in depth how you are doing it and if not then how exactly do you eliminate non contenders with NP.
Just trying to understand.
Thanks
Melvin

I would also love to see the model you are using.

[Dorianmode]

Originally Posted by mrhug

I have really enjoyed this post, and as a beginner (14 months) wish we would have more like them. I really enjoy reading about the successes of other members and how they are accomplishing their success. However, it can become confusing very quickly.
DM
I have a question about how you are using NP. I see where each horse has a range posted within RDSS NP. However, are you establishing a speed rating for the current race and then comparing this rating to each horses range in NP? If so would you please explain in depth how you are doing it and if not then how exactly do you eliminate non contenders with NP.
Just trying to understand.
Thanks
Melvin

I do not project a speed rating for a horse in today's race. The range you see "posted" in NP, is a calculated range using SOME of that horse's past SR's. Under some circumstances, that range can be predictive, to a certain extent. Have you watched/listened to the introductory NP videos in which Mr. Schwartz lays out his "confidence interval", for the SR "range" in NP ? The "confidence interval" that NP calculates, in general, "contains"/"projects", (statistically), to about a 90 %, ("confidence") level what an animal will do today. We have been talking about the problems of NP, and about that "other" 10% of the probability (total) spectrum, (90+10=100%). If NP drops the last 2 races, (as Schwartz says in the 5th video), then "things might have been happening", in the last two races, (which were dropped, ....by his definition), in the calculation of the NP range, that you see on the screen. That means, I have to look at each horse, and see if it has changed it's behavior in the last two races. Assuming it hasn't, the NP range can be predictive, at around the 90 % level.

BTW, I now have my own version of a "range", which calculates a slightly higher "confidence" level. It's almost the same, but instead of 90 %, (which Schwartz uses in his "confidence level), by definition, (statistically), mine is 95%, because 2 Standard Deviations, (under the "Bell Curve"..or statistically..what is called a "normal distribution"), contains within it 95% of the horse's behavior, (and mine uses all the SRs I can get, and weights them towards the recent ones).

I don't have a "magic" system by which I use NP for eliminations. I use it quickly, visually, to see the horses which could not possibly run up to par in today's race, and, ((after making sure they have not "improved" in the last two, (or whatever) races which were, by definition, dropped in the calculation of the NP range)), either toss them, or leave them in for further analysis, both by RDSS, and my own final "match up" handicapping.

I'll try to keep my eye out for an example race from today, which demonstrates how I used NP for eliminations, practically, today, and post it later today.

[mrhug]

Thanks. Still trying to get my hands around what you are saying. Any help will be appreciated.

[Dave Schwartz]

BTW, I now have my own version of a "range", which calculates a slightly higher "confidence" level. It's almost the same, but instead of 90 %, (which Schwartz uses in his "confidence level), by definition, (statistically), mine is 95%, because 2 Standard Deviations, (under the "Bell Curve"..or statistically..what is called a "normal distribution"), contains within it 95% of the horse's behavior, (and mine uses all the SRs I can get, and weights them towards the recent ones).

Brilliant!


Thanks.


Dave Schwartz

[barb craven]

Hi Shoeless You asked how RDSS users pick their race preferences for the day. RDSS2 has a filter feature that lets you get a quick look at all races playing for a particular day that you can filter down to your own preferences. It's called 'My races'. I happen to like routes with more than 8 in a field and 3+. I can quickly filter to those, look over them to see which ones are worth playing. I scan NP too, but use it more as another corollary. Hope this helps a bit.

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by barb craven

Hi Shoeless You asked how RDSS users pick their race preferences for the day. RDSS2 has a filter feature that lets you get a quick look at all races playing for a particular day that you can filter down to your own preferences. It's called 'My races'. I happen to like routes with more than 8 in a field and 3+. I can quickly filter to those, look over them to see which ones are worth playing. I scan NP too, but use it more as another corollary. Hope this helps a bit.

One caveat to this - it only looks through the race cards you have downloaded. Great if you download everything, every day, but not as useful if you pick and choose tracks, which is sort of a 'chicken and egg' scenario . Soon enough, the MyRaces filter will simply get the same info about all race cards from the RDSS server even if you haven't downloaded anything yet. Then you can download only those cards which have the types of races you want to work.

Ted

[Bill V.]

Hi Ted

I just hit My races and because the PA contest has so many tracks involved today, I had a bunch of tracks downloaded. I got 13 non maiden routes/ 8 or more horses races to pick from
Thats pretty neat

GS
Bill

[Ted Craven]

I think you do pretty well at those routes, Bill. It appears there are precisely 32 of them in total today, everywhere (dirt and turf), 21 dirt/poly, 11 turf.

Go gettem'



Ted