Tentative Derby EL 2.0 Contenders, plus Reasoning

[Ted Craven]

I corrected a few things and re-ran the KY Derby for EL 2.0 purposes. Here's what I got:



Based on the TrackMaster numbers shown - and the (default) rules we have to work with, does anyone think the 2 Early and 2 Late selections are incorrect? If not, I'll post this publicly. At this point, just trying to get the software to perform consistently!

Reasoning:

In this race, the POR is the 106 of Uncle Mo, which is NOT 12 SR points higher than the next highest Low (95 of Comma to the Top). But using 106 as POR results in NO other horses Hi SR qualifying. So we take the next highest Hi SR of Mucho Macho Man (MMM) (102) and this gives us 2 Early contenders.

OR - we could say that Uncle Mo's 11 SR point superiority over next best Low SR - Comma to the Top (95) is close enough to 12 points, and then use the Hi SR of the #1 ranked E% horse (Comma to The Top's 100) and thus make the POR 100. This qualifies a bunch more Early horses, but the same 2 Earlies are still the top 2 ranked Hi: Uncle Mo and MMM. Am I right?


I appreciate that other handicapping may come up with other contenders. Just haven't got that far yet!

Thanks,

Ted

[stormbringer]

thanks ! you are the best will you do the card for saturday by any chance?
sorry to be so much trouble.ATTN: UNCLE MO MAY SCRATCH.

[mikesal57]

Ted..my opinion is that those monster numbers were from last year as a 2yo and the 2 he ran this year would be in line with the rest of the field.

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Ted..my opinion is that those monster numbers were from last year as a 2yo and the 2 he ran this year would be in line with the rest of the field.

I can't argue with that at all. If we make his Hi SR this year's 106, he's still the POR and he and MMM still the top 2 Early contenders. Let's see if he still runs...

One frailty of the Newpace approach (as currently implemented) is that the sampled range of SRs for smaller populations (say 5 and less pacelines) and thus for younger and typically improving horses can include either poorer past history or superior past history not relevant today. Current condition and form is not assessed in this. Which is why I tend to favour older horses with fuller histories. Even then, this can be a bit of a broad-brush approach because of the foregoing.

I'll get around soon to my other analysis.

Ted

[Ted Craven]

Gosh, I can't type fast enough Uncle Mo has scratched, so back to the drawing board.

Ted

[Ted Craven]

OK, here's my reworking of the Derby using only EL 2.0



The reasoning for Comma to the Top as 2nd Early contender is that all Early horses are separated by only 1 SR point in the Hi column, and 1 point is not enough to separate. MMM with 102 is first among equals. To separate ties, in the follow up workshop video, Dave suggested that as an alternative to (or instead of?) Jockey % he began to use lifetime high SR. So Comma to the Top's lifetime high SR (TrackMaster SR) is 105, last race, same as MMM (though 2nd back). And this 105 bests Pants on Fire's 103, also last race. So Comma wins the tie breaker and is the second E horse.

This is setting aside that from my normal handicapping approach for the Derby, I would not even use those horses (earlies or lates) who did not win or finish 2nd very close up in G1 or G2 events in 2011. This basic contender filter has not let me down in 10+ years.

Thoughts?

Ted

[SilentRun]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

OK, here's my reworking of the Derby using only EL 2.0

Attachment 22091

The reasoning for Comma to the Top as 2nd Early contender is that all Early horses are separated by only 1 SR point in the Hi column, and 1 point is not enough to separate. MMM with 102 is first among equals. To separate ties, in the follow up workshop video, Dave suggested that as an alternative to (or instead of?) Jockey % he began to use lifetime high SR. So Comma to the Top's lifetime high SR (TrackMaster SR) is 105, last race, same as MMM (though 2nd back). And this 105 bests Pants on Fire's 103, also last race. So Comma wins the tie breaker and is the second E horse.

This is setting aside that from my normal handicapping approach for the Derby, I would not even use those horses (earlies or lates) who did not win or finish 2nd very close up in G1 or G2 events in 2011. This basic contender filter has not let me down in 10+ years.

Thoughts?

Ted

Ted,

You have followed the "New Pace" methodolgy and therefore I concur with your
analysis above. This is the correct approach because you want to measure "New Pace" performance amoungst all levels of competition.
I feel you should not tweak it any further & go with it as is.

All of the E/L 2.0 contenders have either: won @ G1 (#8, #1) or G2 (#13)
and #6 just missed by a head in his last G1 race on 4/11. So these are viable
contenders.

(As an aside I like 2 other contenders that RDSS came up with....Nehro #19 and Santiva #12)

Ernie

[Ted Craven]

Thanks Ernie! I like those 2 other horses too, especially Santiva. I'll get to work on the rest of my analysis next! I posted this EL2 take on things in the public Kentucky Derby thread.

Ted

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

I can't argue with that at all. If we make his Hi SR this year's 106, he's still the POR and he and MMM still the top 2 Early contenders. Let's see if he still runs...

One frailty of the Newpace approach (as currently implemented) is that the sampled range of SRs for smaller populations (say 5 and less pacelines) and thus for younger and typically improving horses can include either poorer past history or superior past history not relevant today. Current condition and form is not assessed in this. Which is why I tend to favour older horses with fuller histories. Even then, this can be a bit of a broad-brush approach because of the foregoing.

I'll get around soon to my other analysis.

Ted

Ted...this can be a discussion for later on...but when you said that 106 was from THIS year..I said WHAT!!!

as you can in the PP's Uncle Mo's Beyers for his last 2 races this year is 96,95 which is about the same as other entries or worse..but TM has it 106 and towers over the others???

scratching my head

mike

[socantra]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Ted...this can be a discussion for later on...but when you said that 106 was from THIS year..I said WHAT!!!

as you can in the PP's Uncle Mo's Beyers for his last 2 races this year is 96,95 which is about the same as other entries or worse..but TM has it 106 and towers over the others???

scratching my head

mike

Comparing isolated speed ratings from different services will make you do more than scratch your head. Bris has a much tighter scale, Beyers and Trackmaster are on a fairly similar scale, but Trackmaster tends to run 5 to 12 points higher than Beyer, especially at the upper ranges.

The attached image is a quicky of the last 2 SRs from all the Derby horses. If I didn't blow the data entry from trying to handle 3 different sets of PPs. it might help to see the relationship. Hope it helps.

Dick...