Contender/paceline guidelines

[mrhug]

Originally Posted by mrhug

I have another question about maiden line selection where there are 2 or less FTS. If a horse has only one race to show, do you use it for analysis in your program even if it does not qualify as a contender based on todays race (distance, track, surface,beaten lengths, etc.) I just ran across a race where a one race horse won a 6.5F race and his only race was a 5F where he was beaten 16 lengths. Same track and surface. When I went back and included him and 2 other one race horses, the other 2 did not qualify as being within 5 points of top CPR horse or were not 1 or 2 EPR,LPR. However, the one race horse who won was within 5 of top CPR horse, #1 EPR and was top TE horse.

I would love to still get an answer to this question if anyone has one.

[clore1030]

Originally Posted by mrhug

The number one thing I am struggling with is when to pass a race. Thanks again for all the help you give.
Merry Christmas to you and yours.
Melvin

Besides the obvious reason of passing when you can't get a decent price, my suggestion is to pass when there are too many unknowns. Just how many is "too many" will depend on the situation.

For example, in the Kentucky Derby, unless there is a foreign-based entry, chances are that none of the horses will have gone the distance. Thus, all are unknowns and one takes one's chances.

But take a race like the January 5 race #6 at AQU...

The 2 horse has never been in a route.
The 4 horse shows no dirt routes.
The 5 horse shows no dirt races at all.

That's three unknowns which in this case are too many for me. Sure, I could force a play, among the dirt horses the 9 horse looks fairly good and the morning line is 7/2.

On top of that, my own decision model for the distance does not show any top-ranked factor to achieve a 40% or better win percentage.

Meanwhile, at six furlongs, the top ranked CPR and BL horses have been winning at a rate of 48%. As long as I can get fair odds, that's where I focus. That's my comfort zone. I'm of the mind that anyone can up their winning percentage just by learning what to avoid.