Early vs. Late

[mrhug]

Bill
This may be a stupid question, but I am not sure where you are getting the 3rd fraction off the TPR screen. Also, where are you coming up with the difference in lengths between 1 and 2.
Thanks

Originally Posted by Bill V.

1 2 3
Attachment 25505

Attachment 25506

Attachment 25507

[Bill V.]

Hi Melvin
Looking at the E/L TPR screen in the analysis
mode

The 2 has a 79.6 LPR
The 1 has a 76.7 LPR

Both horses ran on the same track and distance 6.5
Horse 2 with a 15 DTV and Horse 1 with a 13 DTV

Now LPR is rated off the 3rd fraction
I don't know how to convert FPS to fractions
and saying the 3 point difference in LPR between
these to horse equals exactly 3 lengths probably
is not accurate. But what ever it is, The concept that
horse 2 ran a better 3rd fraction than 1 by 3 is important

hope that helps

Anyone who knows Phase 1 I would be happy to understand
it better myself

GS
Bill

[For The Lead]

Bill put up a good post in analyzing this race. One of the things he used was the EPR, FFR, TPR (or CPR, whichever you prefer) along with E/L. He did this in an effort to condense the information. I thought I would condense it even further and use the information he posted. Here is the information taken from the lines used. The only addition I made was the #6 horse using line 2.

For those who may not be familiar with how to use this, the idea is this, the “contenders” for win are the top TPR horse and any other horse within 5 points of the top TPR horse. So in this race, the top horse has a TPR of 168.0, so any horse within 5 points of that number would qualify. In addition, any horse NOT within 5 points of the top TPR horse, but ranked either 1st or 2nd for EPR or FFR are also "contenders".

Here’s what it would look like. I put a ‘line space’ separating the top TPR horse and those within 5 points of it from the others. As it turn out, in this race the top TPR horses also make up the 1st and 2nd ranked EPR and FFR horses.

I know it doesn't line up exactly, but you'll get the idea.


H# EPR (R) FFR (R) TPR E/L Line# Used

#2 - 88.4 (2) 79.6 (2) 168.0 8.8.... 2
#1 - 90.0 (1) 76.7 (3) 166.7 13.3.... 1
#5 - 85.3 (4) 80.4 (1) 165.7 4.9...... 1

#6 - 88.3 (3) 73.4 (5) 161.7 14.6..... 2
#7 - 86.5 (5) 75.2 (4) 161.7 11.3..... 3

[Bill V.]

Thank you FTL I thought I could help you out
I reformatted your TPR chart for clarity

Horse EPR  (R) FFR (R)  TPR    E/L  Line #
#2    88.4  2  79.6 2   168.0  8.8   2 
#1    90.0  1  76.7 3   166.7  13.3  1
#5    85.3  4  80.4 1   165.7  4.9   1
#6    88.3  3  73.4 5   161.7  14.6  2
#7    86.5  5  75.2 4   161.7  11.3  3

FTL you used Line 2 for horse 6 I left it out. I see it showed good early speed
but it faded as the 1.9 favorite I can see the value in horses who show this
pattern in the last race And its a valid excuse but I thought paceline selection is Use the last line unless there is a valid excuse then go to the next line ? Since it was the second race
and the last race is not usable why use a line that is also a excuse

Can you help me with this ?

GS
Bill

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Thank you FTL I thought I could help you out
I reformatted your TPR chart for clarity

Horse EPR  (R) FFR (R)  TPR    E/L  Line #
#2    88.4  2  79.6 2   168.0  8.8   2 
#1    90.0  1  76.7 3   166.7  13.3  1
#5    85.3  4  80.4 1   165.7  4.9   1
#6    88.3  3  73.4 5   161.7  14.6  2
#7    86.5  5  75.2 4   161.7  11.3  3

FTL you used Line 2 for horse 6 I left it out. I see it showed good early speed
but it faded as the 1.9 favorite I can see the value in horses who show this
pattern in the last race And its a valid excuse but I thought paceline selection is Use the last line unless there is a valid excuse then go to the next line ? Since it was the second race
and the last race is not usable why use a line that is also a excuse

Can you help me with this ?
Attachment 25531
GS
Bill

You're absolutely right. The horse doesn't "deserve" a line.
I just put it in to have 5 horses.
Sometimes it is hard to illustrate something with 3 or 4 horses.

[mrhug]

Thanks Bill and FTL. This is great help. I went back and re-worked a lot of the races I was having trouble with and they made a lot more sense. I still have a long way to go, but you have helped clear up a lot for me. I really appreciate you taking the time to share your knowledge and experience to help a rookie like me. I want to wish you and your families a happy healthy prosperous 2012.
HAPPY NEW YEAR