New Pace with RDSS

[gl45]

Few more races (35) added to previous post. This black box doesn't win much but isn't lose either. 13 more race cards to go

[pktruckdriver]

Originally Posted by gl45

Few more races (35) added to previous post. This black box doesn't win much but isn't lose either. 13 more race cards to go

I could easily see now how I would have just had a streak of bad luck when I did my 3 session plays with the following

All Race Classes

Races 85

Lost 72

Won 13


With that scenario, and my small bank of 80 a session, I easily see now the bigger picture of a few quick losses in a row and bam down I go, but if the Bank is big enough and persistence, there is a reward there, to me this is progress.

As it would explain my 3 quick session losses with New Pace, in just say 4 races lost, and looking at the numbers , it would be easy to lose 4-8 in a row before a nice payoff, so I am not as discouraged as before , thanks for this information and hard work , honestly


Patrick

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Look at the IV column and tell me if you think there is a lot of difference.

I'm sure there is valuable context to your chart in the video link you provide, which I'll get to, but I'm afraid I can't grasp the impact of your chart to say other than: if faced with an Early or Late contender, off say 190 days, I am less likely to treat it as an equal opportunity to Win (or put equal weight on it on top in Exacta combinations) than I would for any other NP contender returning sooner. That was what I was referring to earlier as recency being impactful, perhaps 'impact' having a different meaning than you mean: I'll hit far fewer > 180 day Layoff horses than < 180. I have many other tools in the bag to help downgrade putative NP contenders, and that was the original question.

Another factor to consider (responding to shoeless' initial query) is that some of the High SRs may come from compromised or non-equivalent races: a horse last week running at DMR (who Bill commented on, can't remember who??) looked swell as a ES% #1 and E1 contender but earned the high rating in a 4f dash last year in a DMR maiden race. at elast using TrackMasters's SRs, that high rating was not equivalent to other high ratings, and the odds, other RDSS readouts and the result were all consistent (finished poorly).

Unless you're just pumping through the volume of races with little analysis (one way to go), even a little other comprehensive handicapping lets you qualify usually at least one of the 4 NP contenders - and lessens the bet cost. It seems.

Ted

[Dave Schwartz]

190 days off I totally agree with. And it shows in the chart.

But most people try to draw a line at (say) 30 days and that is clearly (according to the table) folly.

Dave

[JeffH]

I clicked on the link in the RDSS 2.0 program for the New Pace program; but all I saw was the video seminar. Is the program included in this or is this just the seminar discussing the software?

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by JeffH

I clicked on the link in the RDSS 2.0 program for the New Pace program; but all I saw was the video seminar. Is the program included in this or is this just the seminar discussing the software?

Jeff,

Dave Schwartz' NewPace is a video seminar, not software. RDSS 2.0 has a new software component which implements the NewPace rules and concepts ('cause doing it by hand is murder and we have races to win!)

The link is to a blurb which gives an overview of NewPace in RDSS2, and the link there is to Dave S' online store if you'd like to buy his video seminar. You need to buy that seminar (i.e. pay Dave for his work) before you can use the RDSS 2.0 NewPace software module.

If that's you interest, just send me the email receipt from Dave when you buy it (if you do).

Cheers,

Ted

[gl45]

my last run at Turfway Park.

Data was collected from 12/26/2010 to 2/27/2011

Black box, no handicapping necessary. If the favorite is in your New Pace 4 contenders, eliminate the favorite and box the three remain horses. I use BRIS numbers which are different from Track Master, so results might vary.

no much profits, but beats losing.

[pktruckdriver]

Originally Posted by gl45

my last run at Turfway Park.

Data was collected from 12/26/2010 to 2/27/2011

Black box, no handicapping necessary. If the favorite is in your New Pace 4 contenders, eliminate the favorite and box the three remain horses. I use BRIS numbers which are different from Track Master, so results might vary.

no much profits, but beats losing.

I am sorry here but this is not winning, as it took 828.00 TO WIN 89.00

Now that is great, but you lost 114 races, how many in a row as this would and has affected me and my smaller banks, is there a way to overcome this, with 114 lost races, a streak of 20 or more could be achieved, and that I feel would drain me dry, unfortunately.

Maybe all tracks or focusing on certain race type's may eliminates such large losses , I am looking at Saratoga current and will look at last year too in time, I may have to do this by hand still as I am not yet up to using my spreadsheet yet, but will have a tutor soon, I hope.


For example today at the Spa

8 wins for New Pace and 1 race not able to do, as it did not open

pays ranged from 2.60/5.00/29.60/5.00/5.10/8.70/38.00/6.80 = 97.20

That leaves 9 races at 2.00 win bets 9x8 = 72 plus 25.20

also no big exacta's either, biggest of the 2 was 25 for a 2.00 wager and 19.80 for 2.00

12 x 9 = 108.00 - 22.40 = 85.60 negative


so win betting today showed a small profit, but needed a 72.00 to wager

Now if the favorite was dropped and only 3 horse bet then 1 of the exacta's would not have been hit, maybe both of them , leaving a 54.00 loss 1 day, much better than a 108.00 loss


Okay enough, there must be a way here, maybe not, 1 thing for sure more work is needed.

Thanks to all the guys putting up great stuff

I only hope my stuff will help you too

patrick

[Dave Schwartz]

828.00 TO WIN 89.00

Patrick,

PMFJI, but this is a $2.21 $net. While I have seen higher $nets on exacta wagers (and GL has posted such), that is over 10 cents per wagered dollar. If you are expecting more than that then you have very lofty and perhaps unrealistic visions.

I personally know of several people who make very high-quality livings at the races with much lower $nets.


On that topic - what ARE your expectations?


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[gl45]

Patrick,
Losing streak was 9 races. Keep doing just that and you'll be cashing big bucks.
Good luck