New Pace with RDSS
 

Ted,

I have a question for you how would you go about tying in the New Pace readouts with the RDSS screens.Or would New Pace just be a stand alone handicapping tool.

Some folks have discussed that very point in a few recent posts (check the one started by Pino re MNR).

Since VDC, for example, hits approaching 80% Top 3 and ties for Win, one of the NewPace contenders which is NOT also top 3 ranked VDC is likely a lesser chance for Win. Also, recency has a high impact value, according to stats by For The Lead and also Dave Schwartz, I believe. A NewPace contender off for 190 days is a lower candidate for Win or Place (and declining bet for Show as well).

That's off the top. Others have reported a good co-relation between EPR and LPR, and thus also between the classic E/L Differential.

You could use NP as a stand-alone black box, but ties always need breaking and contenders ranked highly because of not-recently-duplicated performance can be down-graded or eliminated - if you approach this on a consistent basis.

Some ideas to get the ball rolling ...

Ted

Not sure where you got this idea, but my answer would be "No, they do not have the IV edge normally attributed to them."

Episode 3: How Big a Factor is Recency?
http://thehorsehandicappingauthority...ing-episode-3/

Or here on YouTube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YFB7agqTF-k

Dave,

Would you then be in disagreement with the following statistics:

"Over a recent 2 year period"

WIN PLACE
77% 75% raced in the last 30 days
88% 85% raced in the last 45 days
92% 89% raced in the last 60 days
95% 91% raced in the last 90 days

97% 94% raced in the last 187 days

"Over the past couple of years, which takes in over 80,000 results"

75% of place horses have run in the last 30 days
85% of place horses have run in the last 45 days
89% of place horses have run in the last 60 days
91% of place horses have run in the last 90 days

If not, well this is the degree of recency I was referring to.
If so, I welcome your alternate summary.

I will get to those links of yours ASAP.

Ted

http://www.horsestreet.com/BBSImages/Rec-0200.png

Look at the IV column and tell me if you think there is a lot of difference.

Ted,


How would you go about using it with EPR and LPR?


I saw Pino's posts that were very good and was trying to figure another way of getting it down to 3 horses instead of just kicking the favorite out.

Yes , I too was wondering this, and thought that using the VDC, BL/BL to help narrow it down to 3 contenders, especially if you to box them, it would be more economical for me to do so, as playing 12 ex-boxes ate up my small bank money quickly, and even further more if one was to win wager on them too, as I did,

Granted my session plays were with small BR and it only took 1 race to bet 20 ( a 1/4 of my bank ), 4 win wagers and 1 ex-box, and I was defeated quickly, but I feel that having come back here and staying in touch with what RDSS has been doing in EL 2.0, it seems that I kinda jumped into the pool before it filled up completely , and the results posted during the studies being done here , do look promising, so this time plenty of caution, but I can not wait to get in and try a few things out.

Great Job Ted

jeff & pat...

if I can recall...if out of the 4 contenders there are 2 at low odds..pass

in other cases, win bets on over 4-1 horses and 4 horse box ex...

this still can come out to $20 a race

Mike,

The problem there is if you can catch a big number on top of a low odds horse ex still can be very profitable.

This past winter Jeff and I were talking about different tracks and he point me to Turfway Park. I have few races that I'm black boxing as I did with MNR method. I have 21 more cards to go.