Wagercapping and Value

[Whosonfirst]

Originally Posted by RAMON201

I agree with you 100%. I never bet on any favorite. I never make an 'odds line' or even think about the 'take out' . This I view as a 'TOTAL WASTE OF MY TIME' , finding a horse that I think can win the race and pay me what I consider is a 'fair price' ( over 4/1 at the post ) is all I think about. I could care less that others get caught up in thinking about ' making an odds-line' and looking for 'value' as if they can 'by magic' bet the 'overlay' and it will produce a positive ROI. There are enough distractions in handicapping let alone 'creating more' because some 'misguided ' people tell you so. I also love the double digit horses and for me its worth the wait. My top payoff in win betting was $126.00 and thats extreme but it happens. The $30-$40 horses are out there if you look. So make your 'odds-line and bitch about the take-out' and I'll be looking for the ' money in my pocket' horses.

Ramon, I agree with everything you're saying. You have to pick a winner and then get a fair price. Too much mental masturbation for me to make some artificial odds line to get value. My problem doing this professionally is developing the patience and discipline to only accept odds that will pay double digits. At this moment, I'll still take 5/2 minimum, even though I know the probability that I can't make a long term profit at these odds. Self discipline is the hardest thing about betting the horses, IMO. My first step in honing that skill has been to pass races.