NWearner - Pace and Cap

NWearner · 01-03-2010, 12:56 PM

Okay, since a couple of you asked, I will try to go through how I came up with the bet, complete with a couple of screenshots assuming that I can figure out to post them on this forum.

First of all, I use Black Magic as do a few other who post here. Unlike most others, I use it in positional setting, which means that I use it more like Handicapping Magic, but with the bells and whistles of BLAM of which there are many. My unique spin comes in how I evaluate the PBS and PPF numbers from track to track. Fortunately, this race was very clean as far as the numbers go.

Here is my screenshot of the race. This is the BLAM handicapping window. The winner's past performance is on the bottom. I scrolled down to the running line I used. Yes, the line is from WAY BACK - Keeneland, April 2008.

I always make a few notes about why I like a horse. In this case the horse has a 3 point GAP in PPF to the next horse, has a T3 form (FRM) pattern, fits the track profile (PRF) and pace (PCE) of the race. So basically, this horse fit my requirements for ability relative to the field, form, running style for the race, and can confirm to the track profile. I did remove a running line from Dmr because it was not yet reflecting the new variants. Those running lines are excessively high, so I do not use them.

Moving on to the exotics, which is what I was actually asked about. One of the awesome bells and whistles of BLAM is the Exotic Patterns tab. This screen identifies horses that fit exotic running styles. When I brought up the screen, I saw the #6 listed as a Counter Early (closer). Also, this matched the 6 having a listed running style of S, was listed as a closer on the AccuPressure screen, and went from 41 to 22 on the Postition Pointer. All of this pointed to the 6 being a CLOSER. In a Heavy Pressure/Highly Pressured race like this. It made a lot of sense to prefer it in the place spot, more so than some of the cheap speed. Since I was keying the 4 on top, I was able to use four horses in the place spot. Putting the best true closer in that spot made a lot of sense.

I was able to spread out a lot in the show spot. This basically became a process of elimination, and I only had to eliminate two horses - the 2 and the 10. This actually made me nervous eliminating these two horses because they both had form patterns and the 2 had a reversal.

That's pretty much it. BLAM made it very fast for me to put this together. In fact, it has taken me about twenty times as long to put into words than it did to actually look at the race, and I'm a really fast typist/keyboarder/whatever.

I hope I can get these screenshots to work. Mostly, I hope this info helps.

Best,
Mike

01-03-2010, 12:56 PM	#8
NWearner Grade 3 Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 61	Ticket Structure Okay, since a couple of you asked, I will try to go through how I came up with the bet, complete with a couple of screenshots assuming that I can figure out to post them on this forum. First of all, I use Black Magic as do a few other who post here. Unlike most others, I use it in positional setting, which means that I use it more like Handicapping Magic, but with the bells and whistles of BLAM of which there are many. My unique spin comes in how I evaluate the PBS and PPF numbers from track to track. Fortunately, this race was very clean as far as the numbers go. Here is my screenshot of the race. This is the BLAM handicapping window. The winner's past performance is on the bottom. I scrolled down to the running line I used. Yes, the line is from WAY BACK - Keeneland, April 2008. I always make a few notes about why I like a horse. In this case the horse has a 3 point GAP in PPF to the next horse, has a T3 form (FRM) pattern, fits the track profile (PRF) and pace (PCE) of the race. So basically, this horse fit my requirements for ability relative to the field, form, running style for the race, and can confirm to the track profile. I did remove a running line from Dmr because it was not yet reflecting the new variants. Those running lines are excessively high, so I do not use them. Moving on to the exotics, which is what I was actually asked about. One of the awesome bells and whistles of BLAM is the Exotic Patterns tab. This screen identifies horses that fit exotic running styles. When I brought up the screen, I saw the #6 listed as a Counter Early (closer). Also, this matched the 6 having a listed running style of S, was listed as a closer on the AccuPressure screen, and went from 41 to 22 on the Postition Pointer. All of this pointed to the 6 being a CLOSER. In a Heavy Pressure/Highly Pressured race like this. It made a lot of sense to prefer it in the place spot, more so than some of the cheap speed. Since I was keying the 4 on top, I was able to use four horses in the place spot. Putting the best true closer in that spot made a lot of sense. I was able to spread out a lot in the show spot. This basically became a process of elimination, and I only had to eliminate two horses - the 2 and the 10. This actually made me nervous eliminating these two horses because they both had form patterns and the 2 had a reversal. That's pretty much it. BLAM made it very fast for me to put this together. In fact, it has taken me about twenty times as long to put into words than it did to actually look at the race, and I'm a really fast typist/keyboarder/whatever. I hope I can get these screenshots to work. Mostly, I hope this info helps. Best, Mike Attached Images