Saturday Collective/ Positional on the lead projected pace races

[Charlie D]

Apologies for coming back, but i cannot ignore a comment directed at me


Do i understand what Richie is saying?? Yes



Oh and Richie, i let this raise my blood pressure too much and posted some comments i should not as you are a good man imho, so apologies for those that you feel are a bit uncalled for


All the best with your last line ONLY concept (watch out for the last line Philly shippers to Aqu bud, they will make you throw out TRUE contenders)

Now please allow me to dismiss this thread to read only by not directing comment my way as i hate ignoring people and the more i get involved the higher the blood pressure gets resulting in uncalled for comments.

All the best

[mamojica]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

Apologies for coming back, but i cannot ignore a comment directed at me

Do i understand what Richie is saying?? Yes

OK. Let's drop it.

And if I offended you with my last post, my apologies.

Regards,
Marc

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by mamojica

The following four things must be in place (I’ve put them in a different order to make them easier for me to understand):

1. Use only the last race for projecting pace
2. That race must have run within 30 days of today
3. The horse must have been in the lead at the first and second calls
4. Unless the horse is young with few pace lines, he must have run in the lead at the same pace in a prior race. In other words, make sure that a fast time in the last race is not a fluke.

If you have found a race that fits all four guidelines, you can use that paceline as your projected pace. Use that paceline/projected pace to match the race as you normally would.

Regards,
Marc

You have it right on the money Marc.

[VoodooFan]

Originally Posted by mamojica

What Richie is demonstrating here is not a radical departure from the basics. It is simply a short-cut. The situation in which it can be used comes up infrequently, but Richie found that it works well, and is presenting it to us for our benefit.

1) Richie's approach is like learning math. While you 1st learn to recognize how to add and subtract, you DON'T start learning and doing linear equations, rearranging equations to cancel out equal factors , solving for an unknown variable, using reciprocals, multiplicative inverse, unlike denominators, etc., like in algebra.

That is not included when you first learn addition and subtraction.

It is ALL math but you have to start with what is basic 1st.


2) This is a valid pattern, it does come up, among other more advanced and intricate Past Performance pattern recognition of MatchUp factors that do not conform to any rules or guidelines.


Richie is trying to get people to do, at least ONE thing fast, well and easy recognizable, basic.

For instance:

Originally Posted by THE HAT

Here goes Voodoo.

When checking running styles I find a lone Early, but there isn’t any line showing where the horse won the race, but his first two calls indicate that he is a very fast horse and will get the lead in today’s race. This is the horse I pick to win the race.

If I believe the race will go other than Early I may pick another horse with a different running style and try to find a running line for this horse. So in reality I’m picking horse’s running styles and then find running lines that will make the horse the winner.

In most instances I do not know the horse's name, or the track where he last ran. The horse that is going to take the lead is the first thing I look for in today’s race and nothing else matters. I do not apply any
traditional handicapping methods..

The Hat

Advancing stages, this may sound easy, sometimes it is, sometimes its not, but you got to start somewhere, easy , with success, to get to the next level, because if you are not successful and confident on the most primary of MatchUp skills, one can forget about getting toward the higher levels...

...Find the Early horse, will he be Early TODAY?,

will he get THE LEAD, TODAY?,

what's his comfort lead,

Early horse loses if he is not in the lead at the break-or needs a comfort lead in strectch,

is he a "pretend" or "default" Early horse,

does he run on-the-lead even after a layoff,

does he take the lead, even after multiple layoffs,

is he a fighter,etc.,

All these advanced skills and more to be attained are useless if a beginner Matcher has no confidence or belief in ability to nail the horse that HE KNOWS will be in the lead TODAY, for sure.

Richie is tryin to prime the MatchUp pump, tryin to reach those who would like to learn on whatever level, because you will get frustrated, quit, lost, exhausted, abandon any hope of getting a handle on it, I've done so many times, Richies post always reels folks in, exposing a new grip point to get on board, not get totally left behind on THE MATCHUP.

Richie's mantra is like the military, "....leave no man behind, everyone goes home, living or dead."

How many races are lost based on wrong anaylsis based on a horse that we said will take the lead and he did'nt, which screws up the rest of the analysis of the race?

Dealing with horses that ARE or WERE early/on-the-lead is an advanced use of the MatchUp, because it depends on the HORSE and what he's facing TODAY, and what his current performance and pattern is TODAY, to know when to follow the layoff rules/guidelines and when to break the rules/guidelines.

Dealing with layoffs are advanced skills, even more so with the MatchUp, whether YOU are good at or think you are good at it.

Since there ARE horses who are Early and on the lead AND done so within 30 days, this is a valid pattern, although a small one among the many multitudes, Richie is finding THEEEEEEE most easiest, basic, and MOST recognizable of all the patterns that come up.

Even non-Matchers see these, and these horses, when they win, most time pay under $5.

VoodooFan

[VoodooFan]

Is Richie teaching venturing a little too far?

Here's a quote from Jim " THE HAT " Bradshaw in the Las Vegas/Spring 1987 seminar manual, HIS own words:

Originally Posted by THE HAT

"...Oaklawn Park is a rather difficult track to handicap because it is a un-biased track, horses are shipping in from all over the country and a large percentage of the horses are coming off layoffs......."

".......As I prepare to handicap the races, I dig deep into the repertory of information provided by my pal and "guru" Howard Sartin....."

".....Faced with shippers and lay-off horses, I cannot rely on the Match-Up entirely, and I know that Energy and Energy exertion is the best way to handicap these races....."

So, even though he is THE Master of The MatchUP, at THAT time and at his 1987 matchup level, he could not use THE MATCHUP entirely, although he is the master of it.

Also proves lay-offs are advanced procedures.

So Richie isn't far off, or even off at all with his teaching methods.

VoodooFan

[VoodooFan]

Here's another quote from Doc Sartin himself, from that SAME manual, HIS own words:

" THE MATCH UP.........TO GET "BRADSHAW PRICES" FROM BRADSHAW PACELINES REQUIRES THAT YOU SHARPEN YOUR ABILITY TO MATCH CONTENDERS AT THE FIRST & SECOND CALLS..."

VoodooFan

[For The Lead]

To Richie,
Not too long ago I made a post that may have offended you. Offending you was not my purpose, rather, I had a specific reason for not wanting to include you. I went on to sincerely express how terrific I thought some of your posts truly are. This thread, started by you, is one of them. It is a shame that not all who have read this thread understand what you are doing. There will always be those who look at things with “blinkers ON”, preventing them from seeing anything other than that which is directly in front of them.

For about the third time on this forum, I will make this paraphrased quote from Jim Bradshaw. “Horse racing is an easy game. When the gates open one horse gets the lead, if no other horse can pass it, it wins.”

If the above is not evidence enough, read the quote from Jim Bradshaw I have copied from a prior post at the bottom.

For those who are matching or in any other way handicapping a horse race, the first thing you have to establish is “which horse is going to make the lead”. If you can’t do that, it is time to go back to the beginning and start over again.

If you can’t establish which horse will have the lead, how will you know if any other horse can catch it?

Originally Posted by THE HAT

When checking running styles I find a lone Early, but there isn’t any line showing where the horse won the race, but his first two calls indicate that he is a very fast horse and will get the lead in today’s race. This is the horse I pick to win the race.

Just one more thought. These kinds of horses do NOT always win at short odds, if you can identify the correct ones.

[Tanico]

Although I have not participated in the thread by posting I have followed it since the day I seen it. I want to thank each of you guys for taking the time and caring enough to post and share your thoughts and ideas. This is what makes this forum so special. Richie I have a lot better insight into the matchup then I had before and I understand this is only an exercise not the whole concept and I appreciate Charlie's input as well, he obviously cares about this or he would not have wasted his time giving us feedback. I hope to see more threads of this nature in the future. Thank you again guys for sharing so freely and I hope to learn enough to be able to add to these great discussions.

[RichieP]

I am very happy seeing all the PASSION shown here especially CharlieD

"FTL" I have no bad feel for anyone and I have a deep respect for others opinions which is why I have listened to it all rather than post. Something my mentor has taught me well!

I wish everyone the very best and good matching.

Please Mr. Bradshaw left me his Stetson in a way and I really want to tip it to EVERYONE who finds the Matchup stimulating and exciting to work and apply.

[bluewaterbill]

Charlie D,

I have read the following from your post to this thread at least 50 times and I'm still having trouble understanding what you have said about finding the projected pace:

"In picking the horse that is going to take the lead, find a horse that has truly been in the lead at the first call. Next, find a horse that was in the lead at the second call. Use the same procedure explained in finding the first call. Next, find a final time that matches the first two calls, and you have the projected pace of today's race."

As I read the above, it is possible to have identified two different horses - one that has been in the lead at the first call and one that has been the lead at the second call. Please explain how you can find a single final time that matches the calls of two different horses to use as the projected pace of today's race.

bluewaterbill