1ST call times

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by lbj

Mike,
don't waste your time. Use the ignore list. Long time ago I did suggest him to consider a lobotomy with no success.
lbj

Facts often do get in the way of opinion.

In clinic we were often called to have an OPINION, but it did not count without FACTUAL evidence...Same here..anyone can believe what they want to (much like politics) but without evidence to back it up, it rings fairly hollow.

It also is a hoot coming from these database grandstanders who are never acutally part of the business, yet draw wild conclusions from that "at arms length" position far from the real business at hand.

I liken it to a great example from a movie about Dizzy Dean. A father has taken his son to a ball game and wonders what the pitcher and catcher are saying when the two come together near the mound. WITHOUT first hand evidence, the father takes the obvious approach and tells his son "They are probably talking about how to pitch this hitter, or which out to try and get if it is a gound ball." LOGICAL from a distance, but then the scence repeats with the voices of the two actually involved. Dean: "Still go that shot gun you wanted to sell?" Catcher: "yes, but why do you need to know now?" Dean: "One of the outfielders is going to ask you about it in the clubhouse and I wanted to beat him to it."

One never knows SECOND hand what happens FIRST HAND even with all these touted databases and second hand information.

[socantra]

Originally Posted by MIKE1121

As I said my data on starting gate placement is over 5 years old. Have they become more consistant in recent years? I don't know. SOME TRACKS were more consistant than others in gate placement, but many were not. As far as the gate crew goes do they care if the starting gate is plus or minus 10 feet?
Is there a rule for them to be accurate in the gate placement? If they are not are there any reprimands?Are there exceptions for standing water following a rain storm or etc etc... ?


Mike.

I haven't been there much in recent years, but when I was in daily attendance at Remington Park, they were pretty casual about gate placement. That being said, it rarely varied by more than six feet or so.

Maybe Canadian gate crewa are more anal than those in the states.

Dick

[MIKE1121]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

IF there were a SHREAD of evidence for that observation, A SHREAD, I would consider it a viable possibility. The grass is where there is probably a wide variation since rail placement changes the circumfernece of the course and the gate palcement is REQUIRED to be changed to account for that difference, and keeping it consistent with the rail changes probably misses the mark.. BUT on dirt, my first hand observations, and dozens and dozens of 2nd hand videotape observations DOES move gate palcement variations on dirt courses into the realm of fiction.....

I would keep fictional observations where they belong.

For over 3 years everyday I used to tape all the replays I could get my hands on. I must have over 600 plus VHS tapes with horse races on them. I could go spend a ton of time finding the races which would PROVE my point that there are times where the gate is off. It is not fictional, it does happen.It isn't worth it.

Think the way you want to think, it doesn't matter to me. I am not interested in getting into an EGO battle with you. My time is too valuable to waste and it is VERY ANNOYING TO OTHER PEOPLE.

I quit posting a couple of years ago at a popular Pace forum becouse it became a breeding ground for people to boast their egos, it got so sickening it made me heave.Just a bunch of know it alls. Maybe they needed to boast their egos to help them deal with lossing, I don't know.

The reason people visit sites like this is to learn NEW IDEAS not worship a handicapper.

Want recognition fix the stock market.


Mike.

[Tim Y]

EGO has nothing to do with over 40 years of observation, many years of that as a member of the group who actually PLACES THE GATE, not a 2nd hand observation from a distance. Observations over decades are what this rational handicapper bases this point: experimental evidence that I first noted in 1969 at the old Fairplex and my brother in law and I stood by the 6 furlong gate over two entire cards to see how different the placement was. How much???, less than two feet. In a race of 3960 feet that is 0.051 per cent: NOISE.

I am sure that there is some sloppiness course to course, but the long term effect? Hardly a bit as the rational handicapper never never bases a conclusion on a single observation as it has the possible contamination of sample error. At 6 furlongs again even wth a 10 foot variance, that would be 0.25 % of the whole, again NOISE.

Even a variance of 10 feet to the overall race would be substantially negated when an overview of the animal's energy distribution and form cycle is considered.

Much Ado about Nothing as the Bard would call it. How did Pizzolla phrase it in Pace Makes the Race? When the great way (the Tao) is lost there appears RULES of etiquette. In years and years of handicapping discussion there remains a myriad of TINY observational variances introduced that just complicates the obvious. Read Gladwell's BLINK: UNDERSTAND what is implicit to an idea and forget the rest.

[Tim Y]

My thesis director (Dr. Kenneth Maxwell)when I was studying lead poisoning and it's effect on calcium metabolism, would remark, when we drew conclusions based upon less than first hand evidence; "Ignorance blossums at a distance."

I never forgot that wisdom as many things SEEM one way or the other until you put them to the test.

[Ted Craven]

ENOUGH! Point made. Move along. Do not confuse Pace and Cap with another horse racing site...

Ted

[Jonathan Steele]

Interesting thread. I learned a few things; thanks gentlemen.

Regards,

Jon

[Jonathan Steele]

Tim,

One question though: what do you say to someone who is matching-up races a la The Hat? Don't you think accuracy of first call times are of paramount importance, especially when horses have raced at different venues?

Regards,

Jon

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by Jonathan Steele

Tim,

One question though: what do you say to someone who is matching-up races a la The Hat? Don't you think accuracy of first call times are of paramount importance, especially when horses have raced at different venues?

TIMES, yes. but that has everything to do with the run up variances track to track, and NOT the placement of the gate race to race. I talked yesterday with Joe Gray (our starter) and he related to me: we PLACE THE GATE within a foot of the same place race to race. As Joe said, "it is often closer than that."

[RichieP]

Delta Downs (meet opened last night):
8.5f - 1st FRACTION is wild fast due to long run from a chute to the 1st turn. Wild fast like unusable when comparing to other tracks. The 1st call also runs VERY fast.