Del Mar 08-25-08 - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

alydar_ David · 08-25-2008, 06:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jimbo282

David I am leaving the OTB and will play when I get home...I am lucky, I live 45 seconds from the OTB !

Lucky...or cursed, depending on how you do!

;>)

alydar_ David · 08-25-2008, 06:57 PM

DMR 7th: #6 Quisisana will prolly be a super chalk, and deservedly so.

However, #1 Unusual Heather has only run once and she did win, running quickly too. Plus, Art Sherman and Joel Rosario have a 30.3% win percentage together over 76 races with a fat ROI of 2.53. That's nothing to sneeze at.

#3 Song and a Wager is live at 10-1. She ran much better with the trainer change and is now back to her three year old level. Can she run another good one? Dunno, but at 10-1 you might want to be a little forgiving.

alydar_ David · 08-25-2008, 07:08 PM

DMR 8th: The confidence factor is low. Whatever the bet is, it will be small.

#3 Molitta is certainly worth a bet at 6-1

So is #5 Miss Caper at 15-1. She ran fast in her only start and her trainer is good at sprint-to-route.

#6 Kiamika is a contender, but who knows how she'll take to the dirt? 15-1 is a nice price.

#9 Marwah could fire too, and Cecil is good on synthetic surfaces. I'm not sure 9/2 is enough though for this race.

#10 Gentleman's Crown is about the same as Marwah.

:::shrug:::

Looks like a pick-em to me.

Jimbo282 · 08-25-2008, 07:10 PM

I forgot I don't have RDSS on my desktop, I need to talk with Ted.
I will be rooting for you Daivd.
Plus fgnetbet does not have Delmar.

Jimmy

alydar_ David · 08-25-2008, 07:12 PM

Jimmy,

Just a get a hat, write some numbers and little pieces of paper and you'll be all set for the finale.

Hehe.

alydar_ David · 08-25-2008, 08:44 PM

Holy Moly! I bet #3 and #6 to win.

Race: 8 Win Place Show
1st 6 Kiamika 107.80 37.20 15.00
2nd 10 Gentlemen's Crown 6.80 5.00
3rd 7 Our Storm 6.00
4th 12 Continental Dancer
5th 9 Marwah (GB)
$2 D/Double 6/6 150.00
$2 Exacta 6-10 766.40
$2 Quinella 6-10 295.40
$2 Trifecta 6-10-7 6307.40
$2 Superfecta 6-10-7-12 79458.40

lsosa54 · 08-25-2008, 09:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alydar_David

Holy Moly! I bet #3 and #6 to win.

Race: 8 Win Place Show
1st 6 Kiamika 107.80 37.20 15.00
2nd 10 Gentlemen's Crown 6.80 5.00
3rd 7 Our Storm 6.00
4th 12 Continental Dancer
5th 9 Marwah (GB)
$2 D/Double 6/6 150.00
$2 Exacta 6-10 766.40
$2 Quinella 6-10 295.40
$2 Trifecta 6-10-7 6307.40
$2 Superfecta 6-10-7-12 79458.40

Nice job David. I played the race as well and had just logged off NJ Bets to check the forum. I can usually play the last couple from Del Mar when I get home from work. If I told you that routes have been running sustained and that there were 2 or 3 early speed horses in this race to set it up and I showed you the following screen, you would probably be happy to get 4 or 5 to 1! He didn't get that nose up by much and had only run on the turf but I guess he liked the poly.

Remembering Doc's credo, I bet win and place. I only wish I would have considered the exacta with the "designated place horses", which in this case were 3 to be considered: the 1,9, and 10. The show horse, the 7, was actually the winner on the EXDC screen.

EXDC/Thoromation has been performing very well, even without completely narrowing down the contenders like I left them here.

alydar_ David · 08-25-2008, 10:18 PM

Nice post, Lou.

And I'm glad you hit it!

I'm not sure you can go by counter energy in these kinds of situations though. I mean, the race is riddled with unknowns and a large percentage of your handicapping (at least mine) is projecting who can do something he's never done before.

To me this is what makes 3YO and 4YO races so interesting and lucrative.

Of course that's only my opinion based on my handicapping experience. As they say, your mileage may vary.

Rverge · 08-26-2008, 05:04 PM

guys, great capping! HOLY MOLY

lsosa54 · 08-26-2008, 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alydar_David

I'm not sure you can go by counter energy in these kinds of situations though. I mean, the race is riddled with unknowns and a large percentage of your handicapping (at least mine) is projecting who can do something he's never done before.

To me this is what makes 3YO and 4YO races so interesting and lucrative.

Of course that's only my opinion based on my handicapping experience. As they say, your mileage may vary.

Not necessarily counter energy, David, but what has been winning in Del Mar dirt routes. The 3 speed horses going for the lead just helped confirm that it should run how it's been running - sustained. Yes, these are maidens but they had a couple of pace lines to look at.

Without getting into all the reasons, the horse was actually a fairly logical contender here. The only unknown was how he would handle the poly but the trainer had a good record with turf to poly in limited starts. The BRIS par here was 76 and he had run a 74 on the turf up north at a bit lower purse.

50 to 1 was out of line. The good thing is that we didn't let the odds scare us off and we bet him.

BTW, if he doesn't have to take up at the top of the stretch, he wins it fairly easily.

08-26-2008, 05:04 PM	#19
Rverge Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: pittsburgh, now! Lancaster, CA. Posts: 2,531	guys, great capping! HOLY MOLY __________________ i love every single minute of life, and, if one is lucky,then you must give it to others.

08-25-2008, 06:57 PM	#12
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	DMR 7th: #6 Quisisana will prolly be a super chalk, and deservedly so. However, #1 Unusual Heather has only run once and she did win, running quickly too. Plus, Art Sherman and Joel Rosario have a 30.3% win percentage together over 76 races with a fat ROI of 2.53. That's nothing to sneeze at. #3 Song and a Wager is live at 10-1. She ran much better with the trainer change and is now back to her three year old level. Can she run another good one? Dunno, but at 10-1 you might want to be a little forgiving.

08-25-2008, 07:08 PM	#13
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	DMR 8th: The confidence factor is low. Whatever the bet is, it will be small. #3 Molitta is certainly worth a bet at 6-1 So is #5 Miss Caper at 15-1. She ran fast in her only start and her trainer is good at sprint-to-route. #6 Kiamika is a contender, but who knows how she'll take to the dirt? 15-1 is a nice price. #9 Marwah could fire too, and Cecil is good on synthetic surfaces. I'm not sure 9/2 is enough though for this race. #10 Gentleman's Crown is about the same as Marwah. :::shrug::: Looks like a pick-em to me.

08-25-2008, 07:10 PM	#14
Jimbo282 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: New Orleans,La. Posts: 116	I forgot I don't have RDSS on my desktop, I need to talk with Ted. I will be rooting for you Daivd. Plus fgnetbet does not have Delmar. Jimmy

08-25-2008, 07:12 PM	#15
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Jimmy, Just a get a hat, write some numbers and little pieces of paper and you'll be all set for the finale. Hehe.

08-25-2008, 08:44 PM	#16
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Holy Moly! I bet #3 and #6 to win. Race: 8 Win Place Show 1st 6 Kiamika 107.80 37.20 15.00 2nd 10 Gentlemen's Crown 6.80 5.00 3rd 7 Our Storm 6.00 4th 12 Continental Dancer 5th 9 Marwah (GB) $2 D/Double 6/6 150.00 $2 Exacta 6-10 766.40 $2 Quinella 6-10 295.40 $2 Trifecta 6-10-7 6307.40 $2 Superfecta 6-10-7-12 79458.40

08-25-2008, 10:18 PM	#18
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Nice post, Lou. And I'm glad you hit it! I'm not sure you can go by counter energy in these kinds of situations though. I mean, the race is riddled with unknowns and a large percentage of your handicapping (at least mine) is projecting who can do something he's never done before. To me this is what makes 3YO and 4YO races so interesting and lucrative. Of course that's only my opinion based on my handicapping experience. As they say, your mileage may vary.