TPR Program

[socantra]

Originally Posted by froggy

As you can see if you bet a horse that isn't in the top 3 TPR you better have a good reason.

Froggy

To be fair, you usually get the same rankings with Total Energy. I just find the seperation a little easier to see with the TPRs.

They are also the same rankings as you get with 'CPR' in Val and Spec. You just don't see the numbers themselves.

Also, Hambleton and Schmidt considered the combined TPR to be the least useful number of the three. The EPR and FFR are what gives you the tie in to running style, position, etc..

Dick

[froggy]

After I looked at yesterday at the Mountain I got to thinking so I picked 3 days in the past at random at the Mountain and found these with a 4+ point advantage.
I just used the total number called CPR in RDSS.

And for xtb these are the numbers generated by RDSS.
I don't do anything to them.
If there is a track variant worked into them I don't know, you'd have to ask Ted for that.


4+.....................2nd.....................................ex box 42.80
top two horses 4+ win 14.70 ..........................ex 121.80
top two..............4+ win 19.40...........................ex 76.60
4+................................win 7.00
top two 9+...................win 4.40
8+........................out
6+.......................2nd
top two 3+, top one another 2+ win 11.00........ex 54.20
top three 3+, top one 1.5 more win ..4.00........ex 20.80
4+.....................lost ....................................ex box 25.80
top two 4+...............win 16.80........................ex 134.00
top three 2+ top one 2 more win 4.20..............ex 17.80
4+.................................win 7.80.........................ex 51.40
5+.........................2nd.................................ex box 31.40

I don't remember which ones I wagered on or not.

Question:
Could I be trying too hard to win every race when these seem to be too easy?

Froggy

[froggy]

There were 14 races for 3 days, three races required 2 horse wagers for a total of $34 invested and a return of $89.30.
ROI = 2.63

On the exactas if all 14 were boxed at $12 each that would be $168 invested with a return of $579.30.
ROI = $3.45

Why don't my wagering investment forms have these kind of figures now?

Methinks they will in the future.

Froggy

[JoeLong]

Originally Posted by socantra

I am a big fan of the TPRs, though I have never used the DOS program that you are apparently talking about. I got the hardback book when it 1st came out in the early 90s, learned how to run the numbers in my head and eventually wrote a basic program for the little Sharp pocket computer, which simplified the process with less damage to my brain.

Hi Dick,

No I don't have the DOS program you are referring to, a fellow wrote a module for the EquiSim handicapping program that calculates the EPR, FFR & TPR and I was just trying to figure how best to use them. Based on this query which book do you think would be best.

Regards - Joe.

[socantra]

I'd go for the paperback. It's cheaper and more readily available. Either one will give you the basics and the newer paperback is geared more toward the modern simulcast, data download game. That bwing said, I think the section from Doc Sartin on Advanced topics is priceless, and if you really get to like the numbers, its worth picking up the older book. A big chunk of both is geared toward calculating the numbers, which you're not going to have to do, but both spend a lot of time talking about interpretation.

By the way, I believe the TPR Formula View for Equisim just calculates the numbers from the raw fractions, so you are going to have to make whatever adjustments you think are appropriate for track to track and variant.

When I used to run the numbers in my head using just the raw fractions, I did very well with them. Doc used to say that American handicappers were adjustment crazy.

Dick

[shoeless]

I have been having good success with the TPR numbers and for the most part using them as stand alone.At CT Saturday night I had 2 horses with a 4 point spread over the rest and hit a 20-1 shot and ex for 193.00.The main thing of course is having the right paceline otherwise nothing will work.Jeff

[JoeLong]

Originally Posted by shoeless

I have been having good success with the TPR numbers and for the most part using them as stand alone.At CT Saturday night I had 2 horses with a 4 point spread over the rest and hit a 20-1 shot and ex for 193.00.The main thing of course is having the right paceline otherwise nothing will work.Jeff

Hi Shoeless,

When you say "4 point spread" are you talking TPR, EPR or FFR, I'm just trying to get an idea on how to use them and keep from zigging & zagging.

Joe.

[Houndog]

I purchased Pace Makes The Race from Dick Schmidt and I inquired about a program that makes TPR ratings similiar to the book. He e-mailed a DOS program that was written by him and Tom Hambleton.

It calculates TPR ratings and will make adjustments per the book. It assumes an Average Daily Variant of 17 (just as in the book), you can also enter 3 year best track records, and allows you to make Track Class Level Adjustments. Nothing fancy but it does follow the book closely. Not a bad program in my opinion. For documentation the book is all you really need and it does have some help screens within the program.

[socantra]

Originally Posted by JoeLong

I'm just trying to get an idea on how to use them and keep from zigging & zagging.

Joe,

If you just want a quickie rundown on how the numbers work, I'll just give it a shot.

They are based on a 100 point scale, with a fifth of a second = 1 point = 1 length, the old DRF SR standard. The three compoments are "Early Pace Rating" (EPR), "Final Fraction Rating" (FFR) and "Total Pace Rating" (TPR).

The EPR is based on the 2nd call for both sprints and routes. The 100 point standard for sprints is 44 seconds flat. For routes it is 69 seconds flat. Points are awarded based on how much slower or faster the horse runs then that.

If the horse is leading the race and the time for the 2nd call is 45 seconds flat, you subtract 1 second (5 points) from 100, and the EPR is 95. If a horse was running 2 lengths back in the same race, he would get an EPR of 93.

The FFR is different depending on the length of the race. At six furlongs, the 100 point standard is 22 seconds flat. You subtract the second call from the final time and compare it with a 22 second final fraction.

Lets say the race above went on to finish in a minute and ten, or 70 seconds flat, and our two horses finnished in a dead heat for first. Subtract 45 from 70 and you get 25 seconds, three seconds or 15 fifths slower than 22 seconds. So the FFR for the race would be 85. That would also be the FFR for the 1st horse.

The horse that was 2 lengths back at the second call though, made up those two lengths, so he ran faster than the pace of the race. His FFR would be 85 + the 2 lengths he gained, or 87. To get the TPR, you just add the two numbers, so the final result would be:

-----------EPR FFR TPR
Horse 1 - 95 85 180
Horse 2 - 93 87 180

It's an amazingly simple construct, and almost everyone can see all sorts of problems with it, but it works and has been proven to work for a number of years now.

Dick

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by socantra

Joe,

If you just want a quickie rundown on how the numbers work, I'll just give it a shot.

They are based on a 100 point scale, with a fifth of a second = 1 point = 1 length, the old DRF SR standard. The three compoments are "Early Pace Rating" (EPR), "Final Fraction Rating" (FFR) and "Total Pace Rating" (TPR).

The EPR is based on the 2nd call for both sprints and routes. The 100 point standard for sprints is 44 seconds flat. For routes it is 69 seconds flat. Points are awarded based on how much slower or faster the horse runs then that.

If the horse is leading the race and the time for the 2nd call is 45 seconds flat, you subtract 1 second (5 points) from 100, and the EPR is 95. If a horse was running 2 lengths back in the same race, he would get an EPR of 93.

The FFR is different depending on the length of the race. At six furlongs, the 100 point standard is 22 seconds flat. You subtract the second call from the final time and compare it with a 22 second final fraction.

Lets say the race above went on to finish in a minute and ten, or 70 seconds flat, and our two horses finnished in a dead heat for first. Subtract 45 from 70 and you get 25 seconds, three seconds or 15 fifths slower than 22 seconds. So the FFR for the race would be 85. That would also be the FFR for the 1st horse.

The horse that was 2 lengths back at the second call though, made up those two lengths, so he ran faster than the pace of the race. His FFR would be 85 + the 2 lengths he gained, or 87. To get the TPR, you just add the two numbers, so the final result would be:

-----------EPR FFR TPR
Horse 1 - 95 85 180
Horse 2 - 93 87 180

It's an amazingly simple construct, and almost everyone can see all sorts of problems with it, but it works and has been proven to work for a number of years now.

Dick

Dick has it nailed.

He is dead on when he says it's power comes from matching the epr/ffr to what's winning at your track. That is also stated quite clearly in PMTR.

Example:
From YESTERDAY at Philly - 2 6.5f non maiden races. winning epr/ffr from the result charts RAW

92-88 = 180 "difference" -4
89-83 = 172 "difference" -6

Fast forward to today's 1st at Philly posted before the race runs in selections. same lines as used TPR numbers

2- 90-85.8 = 175.8 "difference" -4.2
4- 90.4 - 84.1 = 174.5 "difference" -6.3
6- 90.0 - 84.7 = 174.7 "difference" -5.3
8- 87.6 - 85.9 = 173.5 "difference" -1.7

ok who is the ONLY horse NOT fitting the WIN parameters?

The #8 who is the FAVORITE on the morning line. NO shot for the win according to this if you believe it.

He does become a SERIOUS threat for the place as the counter energy horse. he runs 2nd.

Dick has this whole thing nailed man. It is not the total(though it certainly helps). It is the easy to see "difference" between epr/ffr that brings out its true power when matched to a track profile.

Richie