tampa race 6 0417

[admin]

Top 5 contenders

[admin]

the elate screen wild late on the 1 !!

[partsnut]

Hi Bill,

I hope you don't mind me stepping in.

My picks for this race would be the 1,6

I can't get screen shots from Thoromation but this is how
it came out for me.

[admin]

Hi Bill

No problem I welcome all views
Bill what line would you use for horse 6

its the top apv Cr horse and I have no line so things look
shakey

Bill

[partsnut]

Bill,

I"m at work now but when I get home this evening I'll let you know which line I used.

[partsnut]

Bill. as I recall the (1) looks the best but the (6) has a shot so what I would do is probably hedge the lower priced horse as a breakeven bet providing it is under 7-2. The balance would go on the higher priced horse.
If they were both over 7-2 I would bet them both. If they were both under 7-2 I would take a pass on the race.

By the way, I've changed my opinion on 2 horse betting. If done constructively and properly, It can be a good thing. After 8 days of play, 7 of which were at Keenland (which is difficult to say the least) I had one small losing day, which was on Sunday. I lost $29.00.
There was good reason for this - the Poly was moist, the weather was very cold and the wind blew heavily into the stretch. Despite this I had a $26.80 winner on Sunday in the 8th race
This race pulled me out of a very bad day. I did not have this choice in the contest because, I used my hedge horse as the pick.
I am using a program called Hedgehog to evaluate how much should be placed on each contender.
I was 58th going into the challenge on Friday but fell back to 172nd as of today.
My top horse came last Friay and paid $41.40.

[froggy]

Bill,

I haven't done the race as yet but, your top BL/BL horse is in the bottom of the barrel on APV/CLASS and your top horse on APV/CLASS doesn't have a rating. Is this a solid play situation?

Froggy

[admin]

Hi Froggy
First thing thank you for the nice comments on the APv thread
I am really looking forward to the race The poor numbers for the top rfated 1 at 5/2 ML that is a good thing to bet against
I fully expect the 6 to run well I am just investing that it wont win

I'm sure it will be interresting

[froggy]

I just did the race and came up with the 1-5-8-3-2 in that order.

Any more before I bet a race I try to find solid reasons to make an investment.

As qualifiers or disqualifiers depending on how you look at it I use APV/CLASS and recent form.

The only horses that have any recent form are the 4-7-8.

The 4 just won at a lower class and may have already run his race.

The 7 has some recent form but lost in the stretch at a shorter distance big time last out only 10 days ago. There was a time when that would have been a play for me when I was more of a gambler.

The 8 in a lower class race ran just 14 days ago and was up close most of the way and gained horses and lost lengths in the stretch which could or could not be a good sign.

On this race I will pass.

Good luck

Froggy

[Bob Cochran]

Hi guys. I couldn't help but notice the posting of the 6th race at Tampa.

It appears the entire field is comprised of "slow" horses.
In this type of race i would look for a horse who i thought was on the improve
and had odds which warranted a bet . 5-1 or higher. I don't have time to post screenshots, but i can make a few brief comments about each horse.

first off, Workhorse selected #2 and #6 as the "win" horses.

I did 0's and +'s on the 3 horse and it's next race in the sequence is a 0 race
I think the #2 and #8 are the most logical horses. The #2 horse appears to
be the most likely horse to improve today.

I will close with those comments as the 4th race is about to post and it's time for a pain pill

good luck guys.