Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) > Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum
Get RDSS
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Today's Posts

Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum General Handicapping Discussion

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 04-12-2007, 11:06 AM   #11
socantra
Grade 1
 
socantra's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Norman, OK
Posts: 387
Quote:
Originally Posted by JimG View Post
Good stuff Richie. I imagine if you look at the fall of last year, you would see similar numbers. What is interesting, is I think the crowd has been slow to catch on, still playing horses on the polytrack that are in the first flight early. Has been a good opportunity for those selecting the correct closers down the stretch.

Jim
You're right, this is a great thread, and I profited from it yesterday and hope to today.

I think the reason traditional handicappers (and some in the methodology) has been slow to catch on is that they have assumptions going back years that Keeneland is an early speed favoring track. It is still a speed favoring track, clocking amazing times, its just not favoring front runners.at this time.

I would like to insert a cautionary note here. This may not be entirely a characteristic of Polytrack and may not transfer to the surface at other locations. In addition to the new surface, Keeneland also widened the final turn, making it less of a bullring or hairpin configuration. They also added 100 feet to the final straightaway, making it 1235 feet, one of the longer ones among currently active tracks. Both of these changes should also lessen the advantage of early speed.

The lesson should be that as the new surface becomes more and more common, we are going to have to do as Richie has done and do our homework on the charts and our profiles and keep that information current for the track we're playing..

Dick
__________________
"Ils Sont Partis"
socantra is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-12-2007, 11:20 AM   #12
JimG
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 992
Dick,

I agree wholeheartedly that it is important not to make general assumptions about polytrack. But Keeneland has been a gold mine since fall of last year if you know what to look for.

I am hoping that Ted includes something like Richie has done here when the charts are incoorporated into RDSS. Rather than just the same ol' same ol' with modeling factors, it would be nice at a glance to see how the winner has performed over a set number of races and what the winner's call was at each point of the race. Saves the time of manually poring through charts and let's the computer do what it is good at, sorting and retrieving information.

Jim
JimG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-12-2007, 07:13 PM   #13
RichieP
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,019
4/12 - Winner's Positioning

Winning Positions
Sprints have 4 calls - 1f-2c-sc-fin
Routes have 5 calls - 1f-1c-2c-sc-fin

Sprints:
6-8-5-1
5-5-1-1
11-11-4-1
3-1-1-1
5-7-5-1

Routes:
4-4-3-2-1
7-4-1-1-1
__________________
"Grampy I'm talking to you!"
RichieP is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-12-2007, 07:30 PM   #14
JimG
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 992
Quote:
Originally Posted by JimG View Post
Until yesterday, I was in decent shape in the contest but an 0'fer has dropped me in the mid-300's. It's still early and we just need to keep firing. Hope you catch a couple like that today.

Have a good one.

Jim

PS-How do you draw the lines and arrows into your screen shots?

I hit a couple of decent winners and a place today for $45 an change. Here is my overall after today:

Your bankroll total is $120.20
You're currently ranked #300 in the entire contest.

Time to hit some long shots.

Jim
JimG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-12-2007, 07:42 PM   #15
RichieP
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,019
PS-How do you draw the lines and arrows into your screen shots

Jim
I just saw your above question. I am using screenhunter pro. Cost a couple of pennies more than the free one but there is a bit more you can do with it

Richie
__________________
"Grampy I'm talking to you!"
RichieP is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-13-2007, 10:44 PM   #16
Rxlawyer
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 212
Richie:

VERY nice presentation of extremely interesting concept!

Gary
Rxlawyer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-13-2007, 10:59 PM   #17
admin
Administrator
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,643
camtasia

Quote:
Originally Posted by RichieP View Post
PS-How do you draw the lines and arrows into your screen shots

Jim
I just saw your above question. I am using screenhunter pro. Cost a couple of pennies more than the free one but there is a bit more you can do with it

Richie
just wait till Rich learns how to make videos with Camtasia !!
admin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-14-2007, 08:58 AM   #18
RichieP
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,019
4/13 Winner's Positions

Winning Positions
Sprints have 4 calls - 1f-2c-sc-fin
Routes have 5 calls - 1f-1c-2c-sc-fin


Sprints:
4-4-3-1
2-1-1-1
4-3-3-1
6-7-3-1
7-6-2-1

Routes:
4-7-5-3-1
2-3-3-3-1

** Very subtle bias change imo**
__________________
"Grampy I'm talking to you!"
RichieP is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-14-2007, 09:08 PM   #19
Rxlawyer
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 212
Smile

Richie:

Finished 4th today in NHC Qualify contest and I give a lot of credit to the posts that you have made, especially in this section. Your logic expressed in this thread led me to a couple of very nice winners today. Thank you.

Gary Levin
Rxlawyer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-14-2007, 09:40 PM   #20
RichieP
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,019
Thumbs up

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rxlawyer View Post
Richie:

Finished 4th today in NHC Qualify contest and I give a lot of credit to the posts that you have made, especially in this section. Your logic expressed in this thread led me to a couple of very nice winners today. Thank you.

Gary Levin
WOW!

tremendous Gary. You are a super impressive player man. I hope you take the whole blasted thing down!

Really cool!
Richie
__________________
"Grampy I'm talking to you!"
RichieP is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Poly possbily pumping points tompkins General Discussion 1 01-13-2007 03:12 PM
Psychology of Winning Houndog General Discussion 5 06-21-2006 05:00 PM
Belmont Stakes Winning Selection In BRIS Contest partsnut Selections 1 06-11-2006 05:35 PM
Psychology of Winning Chip Napolitano General Discussion 3 07-16-2005 02:34 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2026, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:31 PM.