2/22/14 Tup #5 - Pace and Cap

PeteC · 02-21-2014, 04:36 PM

Let's head back to Turf paradise this weekend. Hope that's okay with everyone...The weather's been consistently good there this winter and this is a full field of 10 with the M/L favorite at 4-1....We have 2 clear early types so we have to decide if one dominates the other or if the race sets up for an OTE winner....

PeteC · 02-22-2014, 10:50 AM

Good morning...

The 4 and the 6 are the clear earlies in here. The 6 looks to need open lengths to go on and win and it’s hard for me to envision that with the early speed possessed by the 4. I am looking for an OTE runner against mid-46, mid-111 fractions…

1& 2: Pretty ugly….
3: Sprinter stretching out, OTE style, but Hat’s sprint-route conversion doesn’t favor this one in my mind.
5: Big power move 1C-SC line 3 against a faster pace…
7: good races are against slower paces
8: Big win against faster pace in line 4 (over #5 too) and against a fast sprint pace in line 6…
9: Going back lines 5 and 6 could make this one a contender, but I can’t do that given the recent no-impact races against slower paces
10: Can’t get past the last 2 races…

After stumbling at the start last time against a slower pace, the 8 gets a faster pace today and is my choice to win the race…

Good luck everyone...

Appy · 02-22-2014, 11:00 AM

Hi Pete. I've been accumulating a Tup database for awhile now, but haven't done any filtering yet. Just watching.
Bris puts out a good form.
22% rail is eye catching.

Think 4-1 will turn into something like 8/5?

lone speed · 02-22-2014, 12:20 PM

Good morning Pete....

Ugggh....was my first impression of this race....

#2 Ten - 97 sprinter stretching back out again is my choice to lead gate to wire...at first glance, form looks ugly....but lack of recent works indicates that recent races are workout races....tough read on the form of many entrants...

Good skills...

Capcondo · 02-22-2014, 01:50 PM

No scratches off equibase.

Tim

Capcondo · 02-22-2014, 02:12 PM

Good race. I agree with Pete. I want to go OTE on this one.

1: If he gets out of the gate, he has a chance. Contender for now.
2: Out. May be part of pace off sprints.
3: Should be too close to pace. Out
4: Part of pace. Out
5: Too far behind. Out.
6: Part of pace. Out.
7: Handled fast pace one time 7 back. Pace then went 1:13 and 1:40. Too slow. Out.
8: There are horses that will be closer. Out.
9: Presser at 2nd call. Too close. Out.
10:Too far back. Out.

I'll take the 1 and hope he gets out of the gate. The power move 3 back is enticing.

Good Luck

Tim

PeteC · 02-22-2014, 03:30 PM

Thanks guys, looks like we're all over the board on this one..All that's left is for one of the earlies to just wire the field and blow us all up...

Lone Speed..."Uggggghhhh", LOL

Appy- What kind of database are you putting together?

Cap'- If you can get back to line 3 on that horse that is a strong line at a big M/L...

Appy · 02-22-2014, 03:46 PM

Just compiling presently.
If I take it to completion it will morph into an algorithmic predictor based on certain result % at specific odds ranges under specific race conditions.

Capcondo · 02-22-2014, 05:42 PM

Nobody got it but the group had the right idea. Tossing my poorly conceived 1 horse, the two sustained horses ran first and second for a $125 exacta for a $1.

Tim

khannamark · 02-22-2014, 06:01 PM

Hi,
I have following this thread with interest and just handicapped the 5th at Tup Feb22.My comment is after the race ran , I did not win the race, and claim no credit. However I would like to share my thoughts and approach with you.
I thought the race revolved around the 6 horse. A sprinter who would be forced to run fast early to get the lead, he is the type of speed that could open up 3-4 lengths on the field. If another speed horse was going to win he would have to be capable of running from many lengths behind. Most of the field had not shown a capability to do this.
More likely the winner would be an OTE who lags at the back of the field early,and consistently passes horses, regardless how far back he is. The 10,8 and the 5 fit this pattern. Eliminating the 10 for poor form and also because he had won from close up, I chose the 8 because of his tandem win over the 5 on Dec 10.I missed that the 5's last race was much better than the 8's. No I did not bet anything in the race.
I have seen such races before, and this pattern often recurs. Any comments?

02-22-2014, 11:00 AM	#3
Appy Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: Flint Hills in Kansas, formerly from Montana Posts: 334	Hi Pete. I've been accumulating a Tup database for awhile now, but haven't done any filtering yet. Just watching. Bris puts out a good form. 22% rail is eye catching. Think 4-1 will turn into something like 8/5? __________________ Serious fun. www.cappersoverlay.com

02-22-2014, 03:46 PM	#8
Appy Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: Flint Hills in Kansas, formerly from Montana Posts: 334	Just compiling presently. If I take it to completion it will morph into an algorithmic predictor based on certain result % at specific odds ranges under specific race conditions. __________________ Serious fun. www.cappersoverlay.com

02-22-2014, 06:01 PM	#10
khannamark improver Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: Toronto Ont. Canada Posts: 21	Tup 5th FEb22 Hi, I have following this thread with interest and just handicapped the 5th at Tup Feb22.My comment is after the race ran , I did not win the race, and claim no credit. However I would like to share my thoughts and approach with you. I thought the race revolved around the 6 horse. A sprinter who would be forced to run fast early to get the lead, he is the type of speed that could open up 3-4 lengths on the field. If another speed horse was going to win he would have to be capable of running from many lengths behind. Most of the field had not shown a capability to do this. More likely the winner would be an OTE who lags at the back of the field early,and consistently passes horses, regardless how far back he is. The 10,8 and the 5 fit this pattern. Eliminating the 10 for poor form and also because he had won from close up, I chose the 8 because of his tandem win over the 5 on Dec 10.I missed that the 5's last race was much better than the 8's. No I did not bet anything in the race. I have seen such races before, and this pattern often recurs. Any comments?

02-22-2014, 10:50 AM	#2
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	Good morning... The 4 and the 6 are the clear earlies in here. The 6 looks to need open lengths to go on and win and it’s hard for me to envision that with the early speed possessed by the 4. I am looking for an OTE runner against mid-46, mid-111 fractions… 1& 2: Pretty ugly…. 3: Sprinter stretching out, OTE style, but Hat’s sprint-route conversion doesn’t favor this one in my mind. 5: Big power move 1C-SC line 3 against a faster pace… 7: good races are against slower paces 8: Big win against faster pace in line 4 (over #5 too) and against a fast sprint pace in line 6… 9: Going back lines 5 and 6 could make this one a contender, but I can’t do that given the recent no-impact races against slower paces 10: Can’t get past the last 2 races… After stumbling at the start last time against a slower pace, the 8 gets a faster pace today and is my choice to win the race… Good luck everyone...

02-22-2014, 12:20 PM	#4
lone speed Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 696	Good morning Pete.... Ugggh....was my first impression of this race.... #2 Ten - 97 sprinter stretching back out again is my choice to lead gate to wire...at first glance, form looks ugly....but lack of recent works indicates that recent races are workout races....tough read on the form of many entrants... Good skills...

02-22-2014, 01:50 PM	#5
Capcondo Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Tempe, Arizona Posts: 600	No scratches off equibase. Tim

02-22-2014, 02:12 PM	#6
Capcondo Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Tempe, Arizona Posts: 600	Good race. I agree with Pete. I want to go OTE on this one. 1: If he gets out of the gate, he has a chance. Contender for now. 2: Out. May be part of pace off sprints. 3: Should be too close to pace. Out 4: Part of pace. Out 5: Too far behind. Out. 6: Part of pace. Out. 7: Handled fast pace one time 7 back. Pace then went 1:13 and 1:40. Too slow. Out. 8: There are horses that will be closer. Out. 9: Presser at 2nd call. Too close. Out. 10:Too far back. Out. I'll take the 1 and hope he gets out of the gate. The power move 3 back is enticing. Good Luck Tim

02-22-2014, 03:30 PM	#7
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	Thanks guys, looks like we're all over the board on this one..All that's left is for one of the earlies to just wire the field and blow us all up... Lone Speed..."Uggggghhhh", LOL Appy- What kind of database are you putting together? Cap'- If you can get back to line 3 on that horse that is a strong line at a big M/L...

02-22-2014, 05:42 PM	#9
Capcondo Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Tempe, Arizona Posts: 600	Nobody got it but the group had the right idea. Tossing my poorly conceived 1 horse, the two sustained horses ran first and second for a $125 exacta for a $1. Tim