Wagering based on Morning Line / Many Benefits

[RichieP]

1) Freedom to have a life outside of racing. No more being a "slave to the toteboard". **** that bull**** man.

2) Freedom from all the EMOTIONAL stuff that affects us when we are wagering "live". Dick wrote about this a while ago: when you bet at even ONE minute to post do you really get an ACCURATE idea of the eventual price that your horse(s) go off at after all the simul cash comes in?

3) for every horse advanced bet that gets "bet down" below the morning line you will get 1 that is 5/1 ml and wins at 25-40 dollars. So what really have we lost?
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Ok I have been wagering like this exclusively for 3 weeks now and here are a few things that I do that might be of some help if u wanna try it ok?

1) I always work my cards between 6 and 8 in the morning. It's a quiet and reflective time period for me when I notice my powers to FOCUS seem to be at it's peak. There is also this SAME "window" for you. Get quiet with yourself and it will come to you. Timeframe will probably be different BUT it is there.

2) After finding a particular race that seems to be crying out for a wager I THEN take a couple of minutes to do these things which seem to be helping as far as how the betting might take place later on:

a) look at the RECENCY issues of the race. If your horse is big on the ml BUT has a good race within the last 14-30 days and the top 1 or 2 ml favs come into the race off layoffs of at least 60 days COUNT on your horse being bet below his ml. Most probably WELL below. I am seeing this over and over and over. Factor this into your final decision making process on whether or not a TRUE value bet might exist in THIS race for you to make. What I have just described is definitely a "REPEATING PATTERN".

b) what is the "field size" of the race? There are more opportunities for the money to be spread around in fields of at least 7 horses.

c) look at the top 2 ml favorites. WHY are they listed as such? class? speed? connections? have they run recently a good race? are they dropping in company for today's race? We can find some good clues here a lot of time that will foretell the actual betting that will go in later. It takes a bit of time and practice but I am getting better at this and so can you ok?

d) LOOK at YOUR horse being considered for a wager. I am really working hard to identify before I make the bet WHY is THIS horse worthy of me betting my money on? Sounds crazy maybe but I really am working on IDENTIFYING in WRITING why THIS HORSE in THIS RACE. Helps weed out the so called "marginal bets" that almost always cost me losses as they are REALLY "action bets" after I get REAL with myself.

e) when a bet has been identified as a "GO" then go and BET the horse IMMEDIATELY. I mean right then and there man. **** waiting around for this and that. you have identified a TRUE value wager in advacnce?

BET THE HORSE - BET THE HORSE - BET THE HORSE

you have done all you can Now relax. The races will take care of the rest ok?

Regards,
Richie
" No one has ever bet enough on a winning horse" - Richard Sasuly

[Dap Daddi]

Riichie:

I like what you wrote. It makes sense. One of the steps I take a long look at is Index To Trainers listing which is usually right above the 1st Race PP's in the Daily Racing Form. What I am looking for here is which of the top five Trainers have horses entered and who the Trainer chose to ride them. What I have found in my own personal approach to Handicapping the races is thatwhen I see a Trainer with several horses running un several different races, I play close attention which jockey has more than one mount. THE KEY here is th fact a Trainer will give a workout mount to a Jockey in return for a live mount. In your keeping records of races next time take a moment to track a Trainer who has 3 or so horses in races where he is using the same Jockey on all three mounts or two of the three. Look to see if that jockey does not win or place on one and the other mount run out. Case in point Bobby Frankel had Alex Solis on two mounts Sunday at Santa AnitaRaces 7 and 10. Solis 's horse in the 8th race lost by a nose at 8-5 odds and in the 10th race Solis horse went out as the favorite and ran fourth or fifth. (An Old Trainer told me about this about 10 years ago, that if a Jockey wanted to ride his A Stock mounts that meant riding horses the same day that needed more conditioning or a race or two under their belt or assessment of what the horse needs to improve (i.e Blinkers on, change in bridal bit)

A litle know ledge to pass on to those who care to want to know.

Dap

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by RichieP

a) look at the RECENCY issues of the race. If your horse is big on the ml BUT has a good race within the last 14-30 days and the top 1 or 2 ml favs come into the race off layoffs of at least 60 days COUNT on your horse being bet below his ml. Most probably WELL below. I am seeing this over and over and over. Factor this into your final decision making process on whether or not a TRUE value bet might exist in THIS race for you to make. What I have just described is definitely a "REPEATING PATTERN".

Regards,
Richie

ok today at Tampa race 2 is perfect example of this pattern that just continues to repeat. here is the ml favorite. off 600 days. was bet to 9/5 or 2/1. didnt even put a line in for him. let him win ( which he didnt)

[RichieP]

ok here is the matchup graph on Spec 150

[RichieP]

here are the pp's for the winning # 5 horse. 4/1 ml paid $ 8.80 which was very fair

to be HONEST Betting off the ml the way I have been I had the horse going around 2/1-5/2 with the 1 horse (9/2ml) going 3/1-7/2 and the 7 horse (20/1 ml) going 12/1-20/1.

The ACTUAL betting saw the 1 get hammered to like 8/5 ( off the board) .

cant get it right all the time.

btw the 5-7 exacta was over a hundred beans man. nope didnt bet exactas. Damn.

Point being when u see this type of fav that is off a long lay and your horse(s) show a good recent race they ARE gonna go less than their ml.

ok

[alydar_ David]

Richie,

Not to invalidate your hypothesis (which is true by the way, the morning line does correlate resonably well with final odds -- we ran statistics on this a couple of years ago), but the odds line maker at TAM is generally off the mark, sometimes by quite a bit as I'm sure you've observed.

I'd be leary advance betting TAM based on the MLO.

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by alydar_David

Richie,

Not to invalidate your hypothesis (which is true by the way, the morning line does correlate resonably well with final odds -- we ran statistics on this a couple of years ago), but the odds line maker at TAM is generally off the mark, sometimes by quite a bit as I'm sure you've observed.

I'd be leary advance betting TAM based on the MLO.

ok Thanx David. I AM gonna watch that guy more closely now that you say this matey. I respect ANYTHING you tell me regarding racing man! for real

Rich

[alydar_ David]

On another note, you can use At The Races software to automatically submit your bets at predetermined odds ranges.

You can set it up and go to the beach or play golf. Just leave your computer and Internet connection running and you're in business.

I've used this for about a year now, being one of the initial beta testers, and I can tell you personally that it works.

[alydar_ David]

Here's the link for At The Races:

http://www.homebased2.com/atr/at_the_races.htm

[JimG]

Originally Posted by alydar_David

Richie,

I'd be leary advance betting TAM based on the MLO.

Same is true for Charles Town. I enjoyed listening to Costy Caras when he announced races there many years ago, but as a morning line maker, he leaves alot to be desired.

Jim