Post Mortem

[Appy]

I anticipated this race could produce nice payouts, so I spent extra time on it.
It did not turn out to my liking and I am now spending time trying to figure out why.
To start (on the heels of Day 1 Breeders Cup results) I immediately earmarked the 8 as a prime contender for a turf route, then began selecting pace lines. NOW I am re-examining my pace lines to see what could have produced a more accurate result. For example, nothing I do, within reason, keeps the 12 from being a top contender, or makes the 5 higher than fourth ranked.
I'd like anyone to offer suggestions as to how they got better results than I did.

[Appy]

BL tab.

[Appy]

Result lines and payouts.

[Bill V.]

Appy

May I ask why you used line 3 for the 5 ?
and why you used line 2 for the 11 ?

[Bill V.]

I would not have a line for the 12 but I would excuse line 1 and use line 2 for horse 5 because of the pace line manual excuse of being the first trip at the track in the current meeting

[Appy]

Thanks for your time Bill.
I should have pointed out the lines now showing on the screen displayed in the graphic are not always the line I originally used. IIRC I originally used line 1 for the 5, in fact 1 or 2 for most of the entries. However, for the 11 I think I originally settled on line 3 or 4.
I normally try to use best comparable within 90 days. That doesn't always produce what would seem to be what the horse is capable of today, nor does it always match up real well with today's conditions. I find when I degrade those horses they are often showing up as viable contenders in the readouts. That gives me reservations about tossing them entirely, particularly in view of exotic possibilities.