Race Review Pen Race 9 Jan4 2013

[Bill V.]

Hello
This is race 9 from Pen last night
I did not get the winner but I did not lose

I would like to show all the horses PP's

I would like you to look at the conditions of this race
Its a Cl 4000 claimer for non winners of a race since July 4th
( 6 months) These are not very good horses
as you can see from the life time and their 2012 records

Also please note the running styles and the Composite Speed Ratings
Who is the 0.0 horse ? and does the 0.0 horse have an advantage ?

Here is the entries screen and my race notes

LRL Race 9 4+ nwi race in 6 months

Life and 2012 records
H1, 5-34 and 2-12 SP1 NF
H2 Scratch
H3 7-35 and 1-8 E7 fast sprinter
H4 5-45 and 0-13 SP1
H5 4-40 and 2-14 U
H6 5 -23 and 3-13 NF
H7 5-40 and 0-12 Line 3 SP1
H8 scratch
H9 5-29 and 2-12 Line 1 P3
H10 3-18 and 1-9 NF
H11 8-65 and 1-14 No recent form 20/1 ML
H12 3-28 and 1-20 EP7 Line 1

[Bill V.]

Here are the PP's

see if you can find a horse with a Early advantage

[Bill V.]

H5 h6 h7

[Bill V.]

Horses 10 11 12

[Bill V.]

Now I only have lines for 4 horses
I did not get the winner







What went wrong ?

well did you find the lone E fast sprinter
Jim Bradshaw said Fast sprinters can beat slow routers
Fast route horses can beat slow sprinters

How fast is the 3 horse We know its the 0.0 CSR horse
Its also on top of Phase 1 TPR and Total Energy
The only other Early type horse in the race is horse
12 and maybe horse 10 but based on current form and condition
do you really think they will out break the 3 horse
who has a clear advantage to the rail with
only horse 1 inside of him.

[Bill V.]

Here is Phase 1 TPR = Last line every horse
Look at the advantage the 3 has in EP


Here is the segments screen Who is the 0.0 horse in F1
The 3


Now If I use the last line for horse 3 it rates on top

do I hide the 3
Because its the favorite
if so I am wasting a bet in this match up
The 3 is a strong favorite in the Sartin Methodology
the readouts tell you so

I passed this race
I did not lose !

[JimG]

Hi Bill,

Thanks for putting the race up. I actually answered your question correctly(who looked dominant early) using eyeball scan of pp's.

Serious question. Why hide a horse because he is the favorite if the pace match ups indicate he should be in the thick of it? Seems counter-intuitive to me and I would love your take on it. Thanks.

Jim

PS...When you say "I didn't lose", it reminds me of Let it Ride when Trotter is detained for being a suspected pick pocket and could not bet the horse wherein the jockey fell off while leading in the stretch.

[Bill V.]

Thanks Jim

Serious question. Why hide a horse because he is the favorite if the pace match ups indicate he should be in the thick of it? Seems counter-intuitive to me and I would love your take on it. Thanks.

I think hiding the favorite is ok as long as you have a valid reason why
you think it will lose

Just hiding a favorite is fine for the "I had that horse " type player but a serious user of the Sartin Methodology should know
when to just let a race go !
If you use all your tools there should be no reason to hide

Trotter !