How do you bet races like this one ? - Pace and Cap

polambi · 12-30-2012, 03:16 PM

It's post time...and you see two horses at almost similar low odds: #4 and #6. What do you do ? This is happening frequently at the tracks, so I need to know how to deal with them. By the way, this is today's race, and the #6 won, followed by the #4. But without knowing the outcome, how do you normally approach races like this?
Do you bet one of them, and risk getting smoked by the other one?
Do you box them in an exacta?
Do you simply pass the race?
All comments are welcome! Thanks.

Ted Craven · 12-30-2012, 04:11 PM

Paul,

IMO, you don't bet (or play) races like this. 2 YO, 3 FTS, your top 2 horses are the same as the public's top 2, the Exacta combos provided little extra value.

The information in this race was fairly efficiently distributed for all to see, and the margin was not high enough to compensate for the risk that one of the FTS horses may pop, first out.

If someone held a gun to my head, I may dutch the exacta box of 6-4 seeking 2-1 odds either way: 6-4 paid $12 for $4 or 2-1; 4-6 was paying $9 for $4 or a bit better than EVEN - if you upped by 50% on that combo in your dutch you could come out again with 2-1. But with no gun, there are better opportunities ... (IMO)

Ted

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noddub62 · 12-30-2012, 04:28 PM

Doc's advice was to pass the race when there was more than 1 horse at equal or less than 2:1. There is another race in 20-30 minites. Ted's advice was right on.

polambi · 12-30-2012, 04:58 PM

Thank you all for your comments. Ted, I will follow your advice, and stay away from them.
Happy New Year to everyone at Pace and Cap!

trotman · 12-30-2012, 07:14 PM

polambi heed Ted's advice in a race like this your just looking for a beating.

Midland333 · 12-30-2012, 09:50 PM

Passssssssssssssssssssssss this race----classic example of race to go get a hot dog!

Earl J · 12-31-2012, 11:57 AM

Pass the race.

I like how you posted the question,with the picture of the post time odd up, I could see this as a future teaching type tool with the PP added under the picture.

I would like to thank Ted and all the posters here i have learned so much from this website.

Thank you all Happy New Year!! Earl J

12-30-2012, 03:16 PM	#1
polambi Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2011 Location: New-York, NY Posts: 138	How do you bet races like this one ? It's post time...and you see two horses at almost similar low odds: #4 and #6. What do you do ? This is happening frequently at the tracks, so I need to know how to deal with them. By the way, this is today's race, and the #6 won, followed by the #4. But without knowing the outcome, how do you normally approach races like this? Do you bet one of them, and risk getting smoked by the other one? Do you box them in an exacta? Do you simply pass the race? All comments are welcome! Thanks. Attached Images

12-30-2012, 04:11 PM	#2
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 9,251	Paul, IMO, you don't bet (or play) races like this. 2 YO, 3 FTS, your top 2 horses are the same as the public's top 2, the Exacta combos provided little extra value. The information in this race was fairly efficiently distributed for all to see, and the margin was not high enough to compensate for the risk that one of the FTS horses may pop, first out. If someone held a gun to my head, I may dutch the exacta box of 6-4 seeking 2-1 odds either way: 6-4 paid $12 for $4 or 2-1; 4-6 was paying $9 for $4 or a bit better than EVEN - if you upped by 50% on that combo in your dutch you could come out again with 2-1. But with no gun, there are better opportunities ... (IMO) Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

12-30-2012, 07:14 PM	#5
trotman Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 259	polambi heed Ted's advice in a race like this your just looking for a beating. __________________ "Success consists of simply getting back up one more time than you fall"

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12-30-2012, 04:28 PM	#3
noddub62 Budman Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 801	Doc's advice was to pass the race when there was more than 1 horse at equal or less than 2:1. There is another race in 20-30 minites. Ted's advice was right on.

12-30-2012, 04:58 PM	#4
polambi Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2011 Location: New-York, NY Posts: 138	Thank you all for your comments. Ted, I will follow your advice, and stay away from them. Happy New Year to everyone at Pace and Cap!

12-30-2012, 09:50 PM	#6
Midland333 Buffalo NY Join Date: Dec 2011 Location: WOODBINE Buffalo NY,Midland Ont,Mexico Posts: 441	Passssssssssssssssssssssss this race----classic example of race to go get a hot dog!

12-31-2012, 11:57 AM	#7
Earl J AlwNW1X Join Date: Jan 2010 Location: Austiintown Oh Posts: 8	Pass the race. I like how you posted the question,with the picture of the post time odd up, I could see this as a future teaching type tool with the PP added under the picture. I would like to thank Ted and all the posters here i have learned so much from this website. Thank you all Happy New Year!! Earl J