chuckg - October Learn to Win

[chuckg]

Paceline selection process for October.

1. Work up the tandem horses.

I will look for horses that ran against each other in the last or next to last race.

Horses to key into are:

a. ones that finished second but beat the other horses in the tandem handily. Winner of the race should not be in this one.

b. A horse that has beaten another horse twice.

c. Horse that finished second by about a length and the winner is in today's race.

For these horses I give the lead horse the last paceline and give the second horse a line that just beats the lead horse. This could come from anywhere in the PPs.

2. Click on the last line for each of the rest of the field. Then view the Total Energy and the Combined Pace Rating screens to get an idea of which horses "should be" the fastest.

3. Move to the BL/BL screen and, starting with the bottom horse, verify that its last line is representative or comparative. I will change to an earlier line to match the distance and/or surface of today's race.

4. Move to the Energy screen and compare the %Med of each horse to the %Med of the Tier one horse and to the %Med of a small sample of winners of past races at today's distance at today's park. If a horse has a paceline from a good past race that matches the %Med of previous winners I will select it instead.

5. Make a quick run through the entries looking for first call leaders. Click on the second lowest first fraction time on the theory that a horse will only run as fast as it has to.

6. Toggle back and forth between the Original screen and the BL/BL screen matching how each horse runs against this first fraction pace. If the line I selected is slower the the projected pace I will subtract one SR point for every 2/10 second that it will have to run faster at the onset. This is just a mental note or scratch pad routine. Mainly it is used to eliminate each horse that cannot or has not run to the pace of the lead runners in today's race.

7. By now I should have the winner in my final 4 or 5 contenders. (I did in 18 of 20 from September.) Go back to the BL/BL. If a tandem race, note the tandem horse, it could be an automatic bet. Look at the second to fifth tier horses for ranks of 1 in Fractal N or 3 or 4 in Factor W. Look for odds of 4 to 1 or better.

8. This month, ideally, bet two horses to win 60/40 and include the winner in the bet.