MNR Profile

[For The Lead]

For those of you interested in MNR, here are the profile results for the first six racing cards. There have been 60 races with one dead heat. This is for ALL distances and ALL classes.

Winners running 1st, 2nd or 3rd at the second call = 80% (49 of 61)
Winners running 1st or 2nd at the second call = 70% (43/61)

Just a "heads up".

Good luck!

P.S.-when there have been more races run, I will be breaking the races down into subcategories of distance, race types, age and sex.

[mikesal57]

Thx FTL...less work I have to do...

[Bill V.]

Thank you FTL

Mike You miight not have to do MNR but you should do at least 1 track
with a long meet
I find this excersise to be very helpful

I have a bunch of horses in my stable alert
Like Doc writes in the Yellow Manual
I know that some of my horse are running at either the wrong distance
class level or even track based on what they will need to win at PARX

Here is my Parx Profile I have only been able to seperate by distance and sex
I have gone back and checked first call bl but I still don't have them all entered

These stats are for no maiden races only from Jan 28 - March 6

[lsosa54]

FTL: Second call is of little importance for us Sartinites - what are the stats at the 1st call?!

Now, now, take a deep breath before responding and yes, that comment tongue in cheek.

Good stuff. Not atypical for MNR.

Originally Posted by For The Lead

For those of you interested in MNR, here are the profile results for the first six racing cards. There have been 60 races with one dead heat. This is for ALL distances and ALL classes.

Winners running 1st, 2nd or 3rd at the second call = 80% (49 of 61)
Winners running 1st or 2nd at the second call = 70% (43/61)

Just a "heads up".

Good luck!

P.S.-when there have been more races run, I will be breaking the races down into subcategories of distance, race types, age and sex.

[mikesal57]

Bill..

I'm glad you brought up your profile of Prx again...
I believe that doing an over all average by distance only is only half the case...

with the results that FTL gave us on MTR meet so far.....
you would believe that early position would dominate.

OK...Say you have a claiming race at 6 furs for 5000 nw1y....

here is my profile for this type race...


Would you bet an "EARLY" horse here??

mike

p.s.- I hope FTL can comment on this...

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by lsosa54

FTL: Second call is of little importance for us Sartinites - what are the stats at the 1st call?!

Now, now, take a deep breath before responding and yes, that comment tongue in cheek.

Good stuff. Not atypical for MNR.

Actually, you are correct!

I was remiss in not posting the 1st call stats as well, so here they are.

Winners running 1st, 2nd or 3rd at the first call = 64% (39 for 61)
Winners running 1st, 2nd at the first call......... = 51% (31 for 61)

The first call is as much a part of the profile as the second call.
It never hurts to know how the winners got from point "A" to point "B".

Also not included in either of my posts are the beaten lengths, which should be kept in a track profile.

I intend to post some, not all, of the beaten lengths in another thread on a similar topic.

[Bill V.]

I have to work with the tools I have avaiable
I have to work much slower than somebody as intelleigant as you
In the beginning of the Methodology The original group
set out together.. It soon became clear that some of the truckers
could juggle more than 2 objects. some could not. This is the beginning
I overcame my fear of making a profile. I started slowly, when I was comfortable
with making distance profiles I split them into 2 for male and female
I feel I do not have a good enough understanding of man made class rules
to be able to add that third object to my juggling ability
Right now my main concern is making a track profile.
When I advance to a MODEL I'll make it a decision model and have a better
answer
Thanks
Bill V

[gl45]

1-1-1 positions are not the same as 4-2-1 positions we all agree.......
so here my question
which of the above 2 fictional positions the handicapper should be more interested...

are we more interested where the horse leads or where the horse take the lead.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Bill..

I'm glad you brought up your profile of Prx again...
I believe that doing an over all average by distance only is only half the case...

with the results that FTL gave us on MTR meet so far.....
you would believe that early position would dominate.

OK...Say you have a claiming race at 6 furs for 5000 nw1y....

here is my profile for this type race...


Would you bet an "EARLY" horse here??

mike

p.s.- I hope FTL can comment on this...

Sure.

My comments are:

Judging ONLY from what I have seen posted on Pace and Cap, it seems to me that "most" players do not keep either track profiles OR decision models. If YOU are one that does, I obviously DON'T mean YOU, so please don't take any offense.

Further, the philosophy of keeping either a track profile or decision model appears to be that "distance and surface" is good enough. Obviously I don't agree, for the very point MIKESAL57 made in his post here. He IS correct! Anyone reading this thread should pay attention to the posts I made and MIKESAL57's comments and screen shot. He is right on target. One would never find the information he showed if all you did is what I showed in my post, especially in light of the fact that I "lumped" ALL races together!

This is EXACTLY how to use a profile or a model.

If you are a serious handicapper, you should do this.

In my original posts, I made it clear the results were for ALL distances and nothing more.

As a "P.S." I also said that when I accumulated more races I would break these down into sub categories, such as distance, race type, age and sex. I guess I should have broken "race type" down into "class and race condition" just for the sake of clarity.

One last point. For the reasons mentioned above, this is why I concentrate on tracks with long meets, such as PEN, PRX, MNR, DEL and WO to mention a few.
Tracks like SAR, DMR, CD, KEE, as examples are tracks whose meets are over almost as quickly as they begin. Tracks with short meets are definitely not on my list of track to play. But, as they say, "to each his own".

That pretty much covers my comments in response to MIKESAL57's request.

Good luck to all!

[Bill V.]

Hi FTL

You wrote

As a "P.S." I also said that when I accumulated more races I would break these down into sub categories, such as distance, race type, age and sex. I guess I should have broken "race type" down into "class and race condition" just for the sake of clarity

I will too When I learn more I will add another ball
Sorry if I'm not advancing as well as you would like but I will get there '

GS
Bill