Matchers Forum Help Race - Pace and Cap

PeteC · 01-12-2012, 11:55 AM

Match-Up Example Race

This is an example of a sprint to route spot play. This is the 4th race at Golden Gate on 12/3/11, one mile on the Tapeta surface.

PeteC · 01-12-2012, 11:56 AM

Here are # 5,6 and 7.

PeteC · 01-12-2012, 11:57 AM

Finally #8 and #9

PeteC · 01-12-2012, 11:59 AM

Running Styles
#1: Sustained
#3: Pressing sprinter stretching out today.
#4: E/P..Not sure about style exactly. Was on the lead in lines 2 and 3 but was off the pace last time.
#5: Sustained
#6: No form
#7: Sustained
#8: P/S
#9 Early

Projected Pace
I used the last line of the #9, on the lead against 49.0 115.1 before fading badly.

Match-Up
With my main early horse folding so badly, I am initially looking for an OTE winner. Here’s my run through the field.

#1: Beat the 9 in the tandem last time and is an initial contender.
#3: Sprinter stretching out. I focus on the 6 furlong time of sprinters when comparing them to routers. In this case, #3 ran against a 6f time of 112.2 and was beaten by a length, so I give it a time of 112.3.

***Refer to the Spot Plays section of the Match Up 2 book, page 139. Jim recommends finding sprinters that are 3-5 lengths faster than everyone else at the 6f mark. In the first Match Up book, he also talks about looking for sprinters that do not fade in their sprints, but rather maintain or improve position or lengths during their sprint. That is the case with #3.

Immediately after noting this 112.3, I look back at the #1 which was 4.7 lengths off of a 115.1 6 furlong time in its last route. Scanning the PP’s at lines 2,3 and 4, they are slower than the 3 as well.

#4: Last 4 lines are in the 114 – 115 range at the 6 furlong mark. Still slower than the 3. OUT
#5: Last race was 5th at this level with trouble. Looking at the 3 main track routes at GG, the 6 furlong times are much slower than #3…OUT
#6: I throw this one out right away, never beaten by less than double digits! OUT
#7: Very poor effort in the last race tandem. Better race in line 2 but 6.5 lengths off of a 115.1 6 furlong time. OUT
#8: This horse has faded in each race showing. OUT
#9 On the lead against 115.1 before fading badly. Sprinter looks much faster than this one…OUT

Based on the 6 furlong projection, the 3 looked much faster than this field to me and was my bet to win the race.

PeteC · 01-12-2012, 12:00 PM

Here is the result chart...

RichieP · 01-12-2012, 05:03 PM

Thanks Pete, a race right from the Hat's teachings in Matchup2!
He would be very proud of your application of his concepts man! Keep it going strong

Richie

01-12-2012, 11:56 AM	#2
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	Here are # 5,6 and 7. Attached Images

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01-12-2012, 11:55 AM	#1
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	Matchers Forum Help Race Match-Up Example Race This is an example of a sprint to route spot play. This is the 4th race at Golden Gate on 12/3/11, one mile on the Tapeta surface. Attached Images

01-12-2012, 11:57 AM	#3
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	Finally #8 and #9 Attached Images

01-12-2012, 11:59 AM	#4
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	Running Styles #1: Sustained #3: Pressing sprinter stretching out today. #4: E/P..Not sure about style exactly. Was on the lead in lines 2 and 3 but was off the pace last time. #5: Sustained #6: No form #7: Sustained #8: P/S #9 Early Projected Pace I used the last line of the #9, on the lead against 49.0 115.1 before fading badly. Match-Up With my main early horse folding so badly, I am initially looking for an OTE winner. Here’s my run through the field. #1: Beat the 9 in the tandem last time and is an initial contender. #3: Sprinter stretching out. I focus on the 6 furlong time of sprinters when comparing them to routers. In this case, #3 ran against a 6f time of 112.2 and was beaten by a length, so I give it a time of 112.3. ***Refer to the Spot Plays section of the Match Up 2 book, page 139. Jim recommends finding sprinters that are 3-5 lengths faster than everyone else at the 6f mark. In the first Match Up book, he also talks about looking for sprinters that do not fade in their sprints, but rather maintain or improve position or lengths during their sprint. That is the case with #3. Immediately after noting this 112.3, I look back at the #1 which was 4.7 lengths off of a 115.1 6 furlong time in its last route. Scanning the PP’s at lines 2,3 and 4, they are slower than the 3 as well. #4: Last 4 lines are in the 114 – 115 range at the 6 furlong mark. Still slower than the 3. OUT #5: Last race was 5th at this level with trouble. Looking at the 3 main track routes at GG, the 6 furlong times are much slower than #3…OUT #6: I throw this one out right away, never beaten by less than double digits! OUT #7: Very poor effort in the last race tandem. Better race in line 2 but 6.5 lengths off of a 115.1 6 furlong time. OUT #8: This horse has faded in each race showing. OUT #9 On the lead against 115.1 before fading badly. Sprinter looks much faster than this one…OUT Based on the 6 furlong projection, the 3 looked much faster than this field to me and was my bet to win the race.

01-12-2012, 12:00 PM	#5
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	The Result Here is the result chart... Attached Images

01-12-2012, 05:03 PM	#6
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	Thanks Pete, a race right from the Hat's teachings in Matchup2! He would be very proud of your application of his concepts man! Keep it going strong Richie __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"