Spot Play - OTE into 3 Matching "E" - Mind's Eye Refresher - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 01-08-2012, 08:19 AM

Thread title self explanatory.

Here are 3 races from over the weekend to let your Mind's Eye see. Do NOT look for the result til after you work the race.

* Hat Helper Refresher* - If you identify 3 "E" runners and are looking OTE for the WIN begin looking for an OTE type who runs well from the 4th or 5th position. Hat taught we need to account positionally for the "E" runners on the racetrack. If you have 4 "E" runners then begin your OTE search from the 5th or 6th position etc. If you are forced to consider a "Mars" horse from outside the 1st call position range make sure he shows a STRONG Power Move from the 2c to the stetch call. They need to get in position there.

Here is the 10th from Gulfstream yesterday

RichieP · 01-08-2012, 08:22 AM

...

RichieP · 01-08-2012, 08:25 AM

,.,

RichieP · 01-08-2012, 08:30 AM

Here is the 11th from Tampa Bay yesterday

RichieP · 01-08-2012, 08:33 AM

Tampa 11th cont

RichieP · 01-08-2012, 08:36 AM

..;

RichieP · 01-08-2012, 08:38 AM

I'm heading to Atlantic City for a couple of days and will post the result chart Tuesday night when I get back.

The very best to everyone

chuckg · 01-10-2012, 12:15 PM

For the 10th race at Gulfstream:

I see the 13 Persua as FPLR. When I match all the other horses to her I see that there are 9 left that can run against her early pace.

So, I select the pacelines which are the most recent against the 13's 24.9 - 47.3 - 1:10.6 and see that the 10 horse Tapits comes up at the top of all 5 screens.

The adjusted screen shows that the 6 La Rei is the only one who has actually won against today's pace.

Now, here is where I wimp out and put a place/show bet on both the 6 and the 10 because I don't see a standout winner. But, that is why I am reading this forum and working the example races. Hopefully, with practice I'll be able to identify a winner after a while.

chuckg · 01-10-2012, 02:51 PM

For the 11th at Tampa:

I tagged 6 Cosmic as the pacesetter FPLR.

After eliminating the horses which have never faced her 23.3 - 47.1 and those which project to be too far behind at the second call to be able to close on this pace I am left with six horses 4 6 1 11 8 9 in that order at the second call.

Now, the 4 is the weakest of the earlies according to DCL. The 11 is the weakest of the EP horses. That leaves 6 1 8 9.

After that I don't really know how to bet this race.

PeteC · 01-10-2012, 03:15 PM

Hi Richie- these look like a couple of toughies, but here's what I came up with...

Gulfstream:
I put the 1,9, 10 and 13 in my e/p mix. I felt the 10 was the fastest of this group based on the pace this one has either set or run against in a number of races. Based on its last couple of races though I do not like this one to win the race. I will look for the fastest ote runners who can win from 5th / 6th position...

#3 has won from 5th twice and lost by a neck from 6th position. I used line 2 as the power line.

#4 has slow turf route pace lines compared to #3 and today's pace...OUT

#5 looked at line 2 as the power line which is slow too, OUT

#6 has won from 6th position, I looked at lines 7 and 8 as power lines.

#7 no really good turf line...OUT

#8 doesn't look as good as the 3 and 6 to me. I'd have to go way back to find a good finish against the 47-110 or so that 3 and 6 can handle. The more recent races don't justify doing that in my mind...OUT

#12 finished 2nd by 2 from 5th position, but all other races show this one likes to be in 2nd or 3rd position early, too close for today...OUT

#16 won from third, too close early today...OUT

I'm left with the 3 and the 6.

Tampa:

I focused in on the 6, 8 and 12 as the earlies. Looking for an OTE runner from 4th/5th against 22.8 46.9...

#1 power moved 4-1 (1C-2C) against a faster pace last time before fading to 4th. Won from 5th in line 10 at CRC. IN

#2 all route PL's and runs from far back. Not my type at 5.5 furlongs...OUT

#3 does best from 1st or 2nd position...OUT

#4 ugly

#5 a close 4th last out. Has won from 4th and was a close 2nd from 5th. IN

#7 ugly

#9 comes from way way back, mars and beyond. Not for me today.

#10 more ugly pacelines

I'm left with the 1 and the 5. These are hard to separate for me because of the different tracks they come from. I'll have to take them both...

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01-08-2012, 08:19 AM	#1
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	Spot Play - OTE into 3 Matching "E" - Mind's Eye Refresher Thread title self explanatory. Here are 3 races from over the weekend to let your Mind's Eye see. Do NOT look for the result til after you work the race. * Hat Helper Refresher* - If you identify 3 "E" runners and are looking OTE for the WIN begin looking for an OTE type who runs well from the 4th or 5th position. Hat taught we need to account positionally for the "E" runners on the racetrack. If you have 4 "E" runners then begin your OTE search from the 5th or 6th position etc. If you are forced to consider a "Mars" horse from outside the 1st call position range make sure he shows a STRONG Power Move from the 2c to the stetch call. They need to get in position there. Here is the 10th from Gulfstream yesterday Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

01-08-2012, 08:22 AM	#2
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	... Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

01-08-2012, 08:25 AM	#3
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	,., Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

01-08-2012, 08:30 AM	#4
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	Here is the 11th from Tampa Bay yesterday Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

01-08-2012, 08:33 AM	#5
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	Tampa 11th cont Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

01-08-2012, 08:36 AM	#6
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	..; Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

01-08-2012, 08:38 AM	#7
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	I'm heading to Atlantic City for a couple of days and will post the result chart Tuesday night when I get back. The very best to everyone __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

01-10-2012, 12:15 PM	#8
chuckg Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 168	For the 10th race at Gulfstream: I see the 13 Persua as FPLR. When I match all the other horses to her I see that there are 9 left that can run against her early pace. So, I select the pacelines which are the most recent against the 13's 24.9 - 47.3 - 1:10.6 and see that the 10 horse Tapits comes up at the top of all 5 screens. The adjusted screen shows that the 6 La Rei is the only one who has actually won against today's pace. Now, here is where I wimp out and put a place/show bet on both the 6 and the 10 because I don't see a standout winner. But, that is why I am reading this forum and working the example races. Hopefully, with practice I'll be able to identify a winner after a while.

01-10-2012, 02:51 PM	#9
chuckg Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 168	For the 11th at Tampa: I tagged 6 Cosmic as the pacesetter FPLR. After eliminating the horses which have never faced her 23.3 - 47.1 and those which project to be too far behind at the second call to be able to close on this pace I am left with six horses 4 6 1 11 8 9 in that order at the second call. Now, the 4 is the weakest of the earlies according to DCL. The 11 is the weakest of the EP horses. That leaves 6 1 8 9. After that I don't really know how to bet this race.

01-10-2012, 03:15 PM	#10
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	Hi Richie- these look like a couple of toughies, but here's what I came up with... Gulfstream: I put the 1,9, 10 and 13 in my e/p mix. I felt the 10 was the fastest of this group based on the pace this one has either set or run against in a number of races. Based on its last couple of races though I do not like this one to win the race. I will look for the fastest ote runners who can win from 5th / 6th position... #3 has won from 5th twice and lost by a neck from 6th position. I used line 2 as the power line. #4 has slow turf route pace lines compared to #3 and today's pace...OUT #5 looked at line 2 as the power line which is slow too, OUT #6 has won from 6th position, I looked at lines 7 and 8 as power lines. #7 no really good turf line...OUT #8 doesn't look as good as the 3 and 6 to me. I'd have to go way back to find a good finish against the 47-110 or so that 3 and 6 can handle. The more recent races don't justify doing that in my mind...OUT #12 finished 2nd by 2 from 5th position, but all other races show this one likes to be in 2nd or 3rd position early, too close for today...OUT #16 won from third, too close early today...OUT I'm left with the 3 and the 6. Tampa: I focused in on the 6, 8 and 12 as the earlies. Looking for an OTE runner from 4th/5th against 22.8 46.9... #1 power moved 4-1 (1C-2C) against a faster pace last time before fading to 4th. Won from 5th in line 10 at CRC. IN #2 all route PL's and runs from far back. Not my type at 5.5 furlongs...OUT #3 does best from 1st or 2nd position...OUT #4 ugly #5 a close 4th last out. Has won from 4th and was a close 2nd from 5th. IN #7 ugly #9 comes from way way back, mars and beyond. Not for me today. #10 more ugly pacelines I'm left with the 1 and the 5. These are hard to separate for me because of the different tracks they come from. I'll have to take them both...