Parx Pace Line Preview

[Bill V.]

Please Help me out if you have any comments

This is not a great race but I....
Here is race 6 today from Parx I have made my paceline selections
and added my comments in the little notepad box near the apv/cr
ratings bottom right of screen shot

I come up wit the 4 and 8

The 6 is a problem horse for me so any help will only make things better
for me as i look to improve

Thank You in advance
Bill

[Bill V.]

3 4 5

[Bill V.]

6 7 8

[SilentRun]

Hi Bill,

I hope I can provide some insight on the 6. IMHO (and it is very humble).
The 6 is OFF-FORM. Check the last 3 races with declining TE and increasing MED... (PP below). I would not consider this horse a win candidate.

Looking at my top RDSS contenders I like the 4-2. Not sure about the 8. And if you consider V%
tiers 4 (0.0), 2 (1.2) and 8 (1.4) I would favor the 2 and 4 over the 8 ALSO.....
The 3 did not make it to my top 5 RDSS but New Pace has the 3 has the pace setter with a near Early Dominance (57%).
I also used the tie breaking speed calculation that Dave Schwartz presented and the 2-3-4 rated higher than the 8.
So it is a close call to exclude the 8 from contention but I am going by the stats.

So I would consider the 3 top choices to be 2-3-4. Standard BTW two best odds.

GL/GS

Ernie

[Bill V.]

The 8 ran like a champ



x

[Capcondo]

That was a nice one. Congrats. I approach these things from a matchup point of view. Here's what I saw:

The 2 looked like a non-contender to me. He made no move in any of the sprints. Looks like it didn't hurt to put him in.

I agree with you and Ernie on the 6. Four of the last five races are bad. Non-contender.

I would not have used the last line on the 5. Vey slow pace and he was closer to the lead than he figured to be in this race. The third line back is the one I would have chosen.

Eyeballing the race, I thought it would run sustained. I picked the 5 who ran second. Then I looked back and saw the 8 ran 1:11 to six furlongs twice when no one else could run better than 1:13.1 in routes. A 2 second edge. You don't see that everyday.

Keep it up.

Tim

[SilentRun]

Bill,

Nice win on the 8....I over analyzed myself out of a win..the 8 was top on the RDSS food chain best TE....I need a time out.

Ernie

[Bill V.]

Thank you Tim and Ernie
I hope to be doing more of these.
I hope they are helpful to the methodology group

[shoeless]

Bill,


Nice hit and yes they are very helpful.


Jeff

[SilentRun]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Thank you Tim and Ernie
I hope to be doing more of these.
I hope they are helpful to the methodology group

Bill,

Posting races where there is group participation is always helpful where you can see varying points of view. It is also a learning opportunity but only if the person explains the reason(s) for their picks as most participants do. It brings forth the power of synergism where the input of a group will generally produce better results than an individual.

Ernie