new pace

[gl45]

MNR last year meet. A little study just for fun.

[Ted Craven]

Pino,

The last 3 lines seem promising (overall net 29% ROI). As for the rest of the report, any chance of presenting it in a spreadsheet format? The columns and headings are quite misaligned and difficult to read.

Ted

[gl45]

mnr 2010 meet

[Ted Craven]

Pino,

I did a bit of a mash-up of the 2 documents you posted, and rearranged a few rows. Is this information in this picture correct, and the explanations what you meant? If so, I can re-post the excel sheet this came from.

Ted



Here's the modified spreadsheet: mnr2010meet-a.xls

Thanks Pino!

[gl45]

that's fine
txs

[Dave Schwartz]

If I am understanding this right, you use NewPace to get the contenders then use the selected pacelines to split them?


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[gl45]

Dave,
if the favorite is in the New Pace contenders I would make a 4 horses exacta box, otherwise is a pass. No pace line selection no handicapping, just bet what the New Pace give out.
Salutations,
Giuseppe

[cdax]

Originally Posted by gl45

if the favorite is in the New Pace contenders I would make a 4 horses exacta box, otherwise is a pass. Giuseppe

So, you're only betting when the favorite is included. What did the exactas pay where the favorite wasn't included? I understand that they hit less often, but at much better prices.

I use NewPace and I usually bet 3-4 horse exacta boxes when I do, but I do a little extra 'capping to eliminate some of those 436 races lost and ROI should go up.

I understand it's just a study, but seems like I would be stepping over dollars to pick up pennies.

Just my two pennies.

Chris

[gl45]

Chris,
the study won 34.88% of the races without handicapping. The idea was to find how many times the favorite was one of the contenders and how many times, won or placed.
I agree that with some handicapping ROI would likely improve. Here is a race where some handicapping would make you a winner.
#7 is the dominant horse and yet isn't one of the contenders. New Pace select the place horse and everybody when gaga after the #6 cause Deshawn Parker on the reins.

[Ted Craven]

Here's a look at a new layout for the NewPace screen in RDSS, with a few updated rules. Pino is right on - the dominant early horse #7 deserves to be the E1 (with 70% of the top 2 early speed points). It sets the PoR itself (58, so no worries about it meeting the PoR) and NOT the Swing horse #10 with its 63 low (the Swing horse does not set the PoR, will not challenge for the lead - and this particular Swing horse certainly not!). Now we need one more Early horse, and we take the highest Hi SR of the remaining Early/Swing horse group - which is the #10 with its 84 high SR.

Voilà. 7 - 10. Win, Place, Exacta.



The above screen (the default sort order) is sorted by Early/Swing group then Hi SR. If you sort by Late group then Low SR, it looks like this: