Del Mar track model

[Pat C.]

I have been trying to keep up Brohamer type models for several of my frequently played tracks from the charts. If anyone is interested, Del Mar has a database on their web page that contains almost all of the info needed for a ready made track model. I opened it in excel and sorted by distance, then by surface. I particularly like the columns with second call positions, times and final times for each distance. Helps with contender and pace line selection. Here is the link to the page:

http://www.dmtc.com/polycapping/

Anyone know of any other tracks that maintain the same type records for public use?

Pat C.

[mikesal57]

looks like California is the top of the class with this info..
thxs Pat

[Bill Lyster]

Wow,

What a nice little data base. Has all races for 2007,2008 and 2010. 2009 missing for some reason.

Out of 731 races won by other than first time starters, almost 91% were coming back to the races within 70 days, 82 % within 45 days.

Some of the best trainers hardly ever win outside even smaller windows. Its worth a long look.

Bill

[mikesal57]

I believe our For The Lead will concur to this . He has a vast database of stats for the whole USA over many, many years...

Somewhere in there I think there's some stats on Ben Hur

mike

[Bill Lyster]

Yeah, too bad they outlawed "spiked" wheels. My kinda chariot!

[Bill Lyster]

I played with the data base a bit, sorted by trainer and you start to see that there is a time window wherein certain guys run their horses where they are successful. Some never win with less than 20 days rest, some only win with returns less than 3 weeks (think the Stute clan, for instance)

For instance, I could find only one trainer who won multiple times with horses coming back with less than two weeks rest - Mike Mitchell. Its so rare these days that this happens. When Oscar Barrera would run them three times a week after claiming/juicing them that was rather amazing at that time...

Anyone know why the 2009 data is not presented, other than perhaps the keeper had better (?) things to do?

[classhandicapper]

I can't get it to work right. For some reason it isn't showing 2009.

[Bill Lyster]

I e-mailed Delmar earlier this week and still have received no response about the missing 2009 data

[Bill Lyster]

Okay, this is somewhat old school-developed data. I used 1 second = 5 lengths and computed E/L's for dirt and turf sprints using 3rd fraction par times (par = 85 pts) as follows:

5f 12.2 seconds
5.5f 18.6 seconds
6f 25.0 seconds
6.5f 31.6 seconds
7f 38.0 seconds

Database did not have info to compute route E/L but you can tell they are pretty negative. I think so far maybe one Wire to Wire job has happened at 8 furlongs or more. Almost all wins come from more than a couple off the pace. Very sustained I believe.


Min./Max. 90% Range Median
5.0 Turf -5/+21 0/+16 +9.0

5.5 Poly -13/+20 -6/+10 +1.0

6.0 Poly -19/+24 -10/+13 (67% are over 0) +1.5

6.5 Poly -19/+18 -13/+9 -1.0

7.0 Poly -17/+13 -13/+12 -3.0


Used as a guide, can help eliminate potential contenders from either end of the spectrum and might help point out place and show only types.

[Bill Lyster]

5.0 Turf
Min./max: -5/+15;

90% Range: -2/+15

5.5 Poly
Min./max: -13/+13;

90% Range: -9/+7

6.0 Poly
Min./max: -19/+14;

90% Range: -9/+10

6.5 Poly
Min./max: -19/+12;

90% Range: -13/+8

7.0 Poly
Mn./max: -17/+11;

90% Range: -13/+4