Doc gets it again

[Bill V.]

Win or place in a grade 1 or 2
Sustained or late running style

Way to go Super Saver
you had what Doc said it takes

No big brown or mine that bird this time
as is almost always the case
the guidelines stand up

[SilentRun]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Win or place in a grade 1 or 2
Sustained or late running style

Just looking at the horse's PP's I would conclude that he falls more
into a "FPLR" type than sustained or late running style. I had this horse
and for the paceline I choose RDSS confirmed early.

Ernie

[SilentRun]

Originally Posted by SilentRun

Just looking at the horse's PP's I would conclude that he falls more into a "FPLR" type than sustained or late running style. I had this horse and for the paceline I choose RDSS confirmed early.

Ernie

I wanted to qualify the above but was cut off....Actually RDSS confirmed
"S" but the interesting situation is, the horse was the 2nd most early
amoungst all "S" and late contenders.
This is supported by the energy panel and the E/L graph.
So I concluded that he was early.

This race supports that the "FPLR" Matchup concept is valid for all distances.
Maybe someone who has stats on this or is more familiar with the Matchup
than I am can comment on this.

Ernie

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by SilentRun

I wanted to qualify the above but was cut off....Actually RDSS confirmed
"S" but the interesting situation is, the horse was the 2nd most early
amoungst all "S" and late contenders.
This is supported by the energy panel and the E/L graph.
So I concluded that he was early.

This race supports that the "FPLR" Matchup concept is valid for all distances.
Maybe someone who has stats on this or is more familiar with the Matchup
than I am can comment on this.

Ernie

Although I did not use a "single line" approach to reach my conclusion, the winner was my #1 first fraction horse and my #1 second call horse, even though it did not show that in the actual race, instead, sporting a new style in coming from 6th position at the first call.

I did not check for FPLR, but my conclusion illustrates that whether the winner was FPLR or not, it was clearly the best first fraction and second call horse going into the race.

Best first fraction speed is a formidable weapon at any distance.

Hope this is of some value to you.

[Bill V.]

Hello guys


You are making good points . What Doc calls Early or late is
how the horse uses its total energy

In my first screen shot in post #1 I made the error of only showing the energy
panel under the pp's It does show Super savers computer generated
running style that is its energy distribution
as being an Sus

Here is a better shot of what Doc would have guided us to
look for Notice the "other than early" running styles and all the sticks
on the Early late graph are on the late side
this along with the Grade 1 place make super saver a
contender as per Doc's guide lines

Good skill in catching the winner

Bill

[SilentRun]

Originally Posted by For The Lead;

I did not check for FPLR, but my conclusion illustrates that whether the winner was FPLR or not,
it was clearly the best first fraction and second call horse going into the race.

Best first fraction speed is a formidable weapon at any distance.

Hope this is of some value to you.

This is good point...I personally intend to include this type of analysis
in every race going forward. I guess you can also say that "FPLR" is a
subset of this.

Ernie

[SilentRun]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Hello guys


You are making good points . What Doc calls Early or late is
how the horse uses its total energy

In my first screen shot in post #1 I made the error of only showing the energy
panel under the pp's It does show Super savers computer generated
running style that is its energy distribution
as being an Sus

Here is a better shot of what Doc would have guided us to
look for Notice the "other than early" running styles and all the sticks
on the Early late graph are on the late side
this along with the Grade 1 place make super saver a
contender as per Doc's guide lines

Good skill in catching the winner

Bill

Thanks for your comments......Yes, Sartin was right on the money,
as usual. I am still kicking myself for not including Ice Box in my exacta
also an "S" contender with competitive TE.

Ernie

[Bill V.]

Hey its just one race

as an old friend of Richie and myself named Mac used to say

"there will be more"

This race also hits home another Doc tidbit

The horse that looks early positionaly but uses its energy sustained
is the best bet

[lsosa54]

The latest guidelines I have from Doc, which I believe are sometime around 2004, said to IGNORE running style as part of the Derby 'capping procedure.

I have never been able to derive much benefit from modeling computer generated running styles based on energy distribution. Visual running styles a la Hat or Brohamer are much more useful in trying to project the pace and the match up.

For example, when you cap a turf race with turf pacelines, many times you get all computer generated running styles as sustained, as that's the typical energy distribution, even if the horse is visually early. Having all runners as sutained doesn't tell you much in and of itself.

Looking at last year's Derby in retrospect, Mine That Bird came out of the FPLR, which was the Sunland Derby looking at the first and 2nd calls and as I recall, he ran fairly close to that pace (4th?). His computer generated style was Early, which was not his visual style or how he won the Derby.

Super Saver also came out of the FPLR tandem by a tick at the first call. Ice Box came out of the tandem which was a tick slower at the 1st call. These were the 2 fastest FPLR's. Super was S/P Presser and Ice was Sustained (using the EnGen in EXDC).

Super Saver is designated Early by AOdds, which is the correct call. Although a small sample, his 2 wins are wire to wire and he has shown a little fight. His last race showed hints that he might be able to early press the pace with success, as he closed some lengths from the 2nd call to the stretch as I recall. Looks like he was able to relax and made a nice move at the top of the lane.

For the record, I completely ignored Mine That Bird last year, even though AOdds had yellow highlights on both his 1st and 2nd calls, meaning they were the fastest adjusted for variant and b l's. I was seduced by the "hossy beliefs" that his speed figs were too low and he came out of a non graded prep. I did not have time to cap the Derby this year due to family commitments.

It seems that the Hat would have nailed this race and his tenets carried forward by Rich are alive and well.

Congrats to all who had Super Saver, even for $2. Calvin Borel is amazing at CDX.

[Bill V.]

add Top two SP
FPLR
Win or place Grade 1-2
I'll take those odds