Gulfstream Friday 1/8 2nd race 5.5 furlongs

[Bill Lyster]

Big fields today and still more cheap speed

5 out of the 13 need open leads to win; and probable pace is 22.2-46.8 with at least three of the 5 dedicated earlies pushing that pace and collapsing. So this eliminates 2-3-5-6-10. The 1, 7 11-12-13 are slow, leaving me with the 4, 8 and 9.

The 4 has two good lines running two L off faster paces at the slightly faster Hawthorne. The 8 presses but cant keep up with 4, so OUT. The 9 is the top class horse, has run against fastest pace 22 and 44.3 at MED but has not shown a propensity to pass horses, but this pace and the backup nature of the early types might help him here.

The 4 presses and has the best closing kick, always good at 5.5 furlongs. so 4 on top and box the 4 and 9. The ML on these two is 5/1 and 4/1, respectively.

Good luck tomorrow,

[RichieP]

Here you go Bill

pps with tandems shown on middle tab

[RichieP]

cont

[RichieP]

;;

[Bill Lyster]

Thanks Richie:

I would have done it but after looking at the race, almost every horse eliminated itself, except my top two.

Bill L.

[mikesal57]

Hi Guys..

One horse to look out for...

last race ..bumped at start

2nd back ..raced against the boys..

can sit off the pace... dangerous..

moving up , most of time, gives you a good price

[mamojica]

Running styles:

E - 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 10
EP - 4
P - 1, 7, 9, 11, 13
SP - 12

Projected pace:
All times are in fifths. I took the first two calls from #3, and the five furlong time for the #8 and added 6.2 seconds. The projected pace is:

22.1 46.3 1:06.3

The following horses are thrown out because they can’t run successfully against the projected pace:
1, 2, 7, 11, 12, 13

It looks like this race will run other than early. After a quick glance at the early horses, it looks like they match-up with the early pace, but don’t finish well. Looking at the early horses one by one:

3 – In his maiden claiming win, it looks like he ran off to an uncontested lead and won easily wire to wire. That’s not happening today. He will be challenged, and he doesn’t respond well to challenges. Out.
5 – He won a maiden claiming race two back, but on a sloppy track. He hasn’t run well on a fast track, and did very poorly his last time out. I don’t trust him. Out.
6 – Won easily last time out, but he got off to a big lead. He won’t get out there by himself today, so out he goes.
8 – He won his first race wire to wire, but he almost won last time out against this pace coming from behind. I like him, and will keep him in for now.
10 – His last two races were run against slower paces, but his first race was run against a slightly faster pace and he still finished well. I’ll keep him in for now

This leaves 4, 8, 9, 10. Matching these up:

8 vs 10 – 10 is better early, so I give the edge to him. 8 is out.
10 vs 4 – 4 has run only at Hawthorne, so we’re matching 10’s Calder lines with 4’s Hawthorne lines. I don’t know whether the tracks are similar, or one is faster than the other. Normally, I would give the edge to 10 because he is better early, but due to my uncertainty about Hawthorne, I’ll keep them both in. Plus, because there are so many early horses, which leads me to believe that this race will run other than early, I feel that 4 deserves extra consideration for coming off the pace.
4, 10 vs 9 – Ugh! More track to track comparisons, which always fill me with uncertainty. 9 has only run at the New Jersey tracks. As far as I am concerned, the New Jersey tracks (Monmouth and the Meadowlands) are as fast as the California tracks. 9’s times will not be as fast at Gulfstream. But will they be fast enough to win? My educated guess is that I don’t think so.

I would bet 4 and 10, and hope that I’m right about 9.

Good Luck,
Marc

[PeteC]

Thanks for posting this Bill. Here's what I see:

Looks like an OTE setup based on several clear-lead types being here and none seeming like they can get their necessary lead early. Here are the E's that I would eliminate:

2,3,5,6,10,13

I want to look for an OTE runner who is fast vs something like a 22.1 46.4 pace.

The OTE runners are:
#1 faded vs slower pace last time. 2 back faced similar pace to today and went nowhere. OUT

#4 held 3rd position all along last race vs 22.3 46.3. Keep her for now.

#7 OUT

#8 I label this one as an E/P. Really like the look of the last race vs today's pace. Broke on top then held 2nd for 2 calls before moving up to fight from the stretch to the finish. Contender.

#9 Faced faster paces including line 3, where she ran 3-2-1-1. Contender

#11 betaen by #8 in the tandem and not much looks good from the last 2 lins to me. Out

#12 Never faced today's pace. OUT

So, I'm left with 4, 8, and 9. I'll rank them 8-9-4.

[Bill Lyster]

Now we have something to root for. The 9 won race won and paid $23 and is hooked up in race two with the 4-8-9 and in race three with the 2 and 6.

[mamojica]

Interesting.