Last Race Importance - Pace and Cap

mikesal57 · 09-21-2009, 11:45 AM

Hi Guys...

I'm tired of seeing just Tim's philosophy tidbits here every time I log on..

So I'm throwing a handicapping question at you..

Sunday's 1ST Race at PHILLY had a 2/5 shot ,#1, in a 6 horse field after the 1a scratched...
I capped the race and came up with the 1 & 2 as contenders...any software program would have had the 1 as a top figure horse using line 2 and/or 3...but look at his last line...no excuse and and he was totally non existent in the race.
Horse #2 had, as I saw it , 2 even races vs good fractions and he was at 3-1.
Yes the 2 was the value horse( I bet him

) but how important is the last race in handicapping?

Any opinions on what you would do even if the odds were the same.

mike

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09-21-2009, 11:45 AM	#1
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	Last Race Importance Hi Guys... I'm tired of seeing just Tim's philosophy tidbits here every time I log on.. So I'm throwing a handicapping question at you.. Sunday's 1ST Race at PHILLY had a 2/5 shot ,#1, in a 6 horse field after the 1a scratched... I capped the race and came up with the 1 & 2 as contenders...any software program would have had the 1 as a top figure horse using line 2 and/or 3...but look at his last line...no excuse and and he was totally non existent in the race. Horse #2 had, as I saw it , 2 even races vs good fractions and he was at 3-1. Yes the 2 was the value horse( I bet him ) but how important is the last race in handicapping? Any opinions on what you would do even if the odds were the same. mike Attached Images __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack