projection - Pace and Cap

Tim Y · 04-03-2009, 11:27 AM

I have taped a week of Aqueduct's talking Horses and the HRTV review over about 5 days and hundreds of races, and a scant 4 mentioned anything about projecting the pace of TODAY'S RACE.

They went On and On about class shifts, trainer intent etc etc all about the periphery of the actual horse's abilities.

The Follow Up had multiple articles suggesting that we practice "calling the race' along with the actual race caller. In other words, for races that make sense to you, you should know, from gate to wire, where each of the contenders most likely will be TODAY in TODAY'S Match UP...the HISTORY to help you project today is of course relevant but only as a building block to understand how they match up TODAY.

Often there are projected pace scenarios that severely limit the ability of a horse TODAY, to win, no matter what the past performances suggest taken in isolation. The great Cigar went into the Pacific Classic at Del Mar and wound up with a pace scenario (Siphon alone on the lead) where he was doomed to go with him and doomed to stay too far behind him regardless of how stellar the recent pace performances might have suggested IN ISOLATION.

Doesn't the history matter? Of course it does for without you would have no idea what this particular horse DID when the pace scenarios of past races required him/her to adapt to those pressures. BUT, that alone is not enough. Unless you take that information and project to the presence or absence of similar pace pressures in today's race you cannot rationaly say what will happen TODAY.

clore1030 · 04-03-2009, 11:42 AM

They'll talk about pace from a positional perspective, but that's about it. When it comes to a matter of say three positional earlies, they don't get into the minutiae of whether one is potentially 1/5 faster.

Or they'll cite that a horse is the speed on the rail, and thus in a better position (there's that word again) to get to the front over a rival parked outside.

I like to listen to them as they do apparently influence the betting, but I'm much more comfortable when they dismiss rather than endorse my selection(s).

04-03-2009, 11:27 AM	#1
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	projection I have taped a week of Aqueduct's talking Horses and the HRTV review over about 5 days and hundreds of races, and a scant 4 mentioned anything about projecting the pace of TODAY'S RACE. They went On and On about class shifts, trainer intent etc etc all about the periphery of the actual horse's abilities. The Follow Up had multiple articles suggesting that we practice "calling the race' along with the actual race caller. In other words, for races that make sense to you, you should know, from gate to wire, where each of the contenders most likely will be TODAY in TODAY'S Match UP...the HISTORY to help you project today is of course relevant but only as a building block to understand how they match up TODAY. Often there are projected pace scenarios that severely limit the ability of a horse TODAY, to win, no matter what the past performances suggest taken in isolation. The great Cigar went into the Pacific Classic at Del Mar and wound up with a pace scenario (Siphon alone on the lead) where he was doomed to go with him and doomed to stay too far behind him regardless of how stellar the recent pace performances might have suggested IN ISOLATION. Doesn't the history matter? Of course it does for without you would have no idea what this particular horse DID when the pace scenarios of past races required him/her to adapt to those pressures. BUT, that alone is not enough. Unless you take that information and project to the presence or absence of similar pace pressures in today's race you cannot rationaly say what will happen TODAY. __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind."

04-03-2009, 11:42 AM	#2
clore1030 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,678	They'll talk about pace from a positional perspective, but that's about it. When it comes to a matter of say three positional earlies, they don't get into the minutiae of whether one is potentially 1/5 faster. Or they'll cite that a horse is the speed on the rail, and thus in a better position (there's that word again) to get to the front over a rival parked outside. I like to listen to them as they do apparently influence the betting, but I'm much more comfortable when they dismiss rather than endorse my selection(s).