Would you have bet this horse?

[tfm]

Was catching up on back charts last night and ran across this one.

Royal Stair debuted sprinting on the LRL turf. He was outrun badly, finishing last, YET made up a TON a ground on the field. They wheeled him back at DEL, sprinting on the DIRT, and he won, paying > 50:1 ($111.20).

Chart for the turf race is attached.

[Ted Craven]

Which DEL race?

[kiltman]

Laurel 9-19-08 race 5 on the turf

[Ted Craven]

I see the DEL race referred to is 10-05-08 race 7, won by Royal Stare. Can't say if I would have win bet it, but it was a NATURAL to include in Exacta, Tri as the typical counter-energy horse, and at a wonderful price. The 3rd fraction is just monstrous compared to anyone else, the result of that amazing gain in the last furlong of its opener LRL race. It's as if the trainer said: just work him to the top of the stretch, then see how fast he'll go. He did fine!

TFM, I like your chart graph a lot for visually showing moves!




Here are the Velocity / Energy calcs for Royal Stare. He gets faster with each fraction, and disburses more of his energy with each fraction - precisely the opposite pattern to normal, and to everyone else today. Clearly he wasn't exerting himself until the last furlong, hence the gain. Is there any other interpretation?

[tfm]

Ted

When I fall behind in doing these charts, I typically generate a bunch of them at a time. I then look through them for 'obvious' moves. When I see one, as was the case here, I follow up to see how the horse performed. While the horse was switching surfaces (turf to dirt) it was also dropping down and that significant gain in a race that didn't come back was impressive (outrun or otherwise).

Would be interesting if someone who has trainer stats would look into the trainer's history with moves of this sort (1st time turf to dirt).

[Bill Lyster]

In my maiden research this pattern turns up periodically, but on highly sporadic basis = translated I guess that means less than 5%. The payoff odds are almost always GENEROUS. The giveaway to me comes either in the comment lines or just really strong final fraction numbers.

These horses usually are inattentive at the gate, stumbled out of the gate or got bumped early in the race and fell far back, BUT DID NOT GIVE UP. I suppose its also possible that a bit of form clouding by the trainer is going on as well (but I could never find one trainer who showed up more than once with this angle). Usually, they were double digits behind at the top of the stretch, but often had final fraction TPR values 8 to 10 points higher than anyone else in the race. Rarely do they have the highest CPR, but they usually are in the top five or six CPR. Horses with this pattern usually need to be within 12 CPR points of the highest horse in the race, otherwise its indicative of just a slow horse.

In many ways the superlative final fraction ratings are an exact opposite to the horse that shows exceptional speed in its last race just prior to a maiden win, but both horses have in common the fact that one part of the race is an absolute standout (= a horse that made a determined effort).

Bill

[tom]

Trainer turf to dirt, 0 for 2.

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by tfm

Was catching up on back charts last night and ran across this one.

Royal Stair debuted sprinting on the LRL turf. He was outrun badly, finishing last, YET made up a TON a ground on the field. They wheeled him back at DEL, sprinting on the DIRT, and he won, paying > 50:1 ($111.20).

Chart for the turf race is attached.

Morning John
In a hundred years I could never have even considered betting that horse whether matching raw or using software.

Raw matching forget about it.
Software:
1) 10th finish position fugghedaboutit.
2) even if somehow #1 changed to some thing palatable once I see -58 on the early late graph the horse is gone from further consideration in less than 1 second.

If I am in that race I lose it every time no doubt.

Bill L posts interesting thoughts on what he saw with his maiden stuff. He is totally into it and very thorough!

Hey good to hear from ya paisan. LOVE your Fat Charts. They are simply the best.

Take care of yourself

[tfm]

Some more tidbits about this race.

The 6th place finisher, Saint Omega, won next time out at LRL (5.5F on the turf, 10/15 R4), paying 27:1. (It's times like this that I wish I stayed more on top of things.)

The winner of the race ran back sprinting on the dirt at LRL and finished dead last, by 26 lengths.

These two are both running back tomorrow at LRL, in a turf sprint.

[raceman5]

is a joke, first of all you do not use a turf line for a dirt race unless its run on poly or syn. His final fraction was a joke also. Its like me running a 26 mile marathon, i walk the first 25.50 miles then sprint home the other half mile, of course my final fraction is going to look outstanding. Agree with Richie 100% on this one.

Bob