Delmar Variants This year - Pace and Cap

Bill Lyster · 08-24-2008, 01:18 PM

I've noticed that almost all horses that ran early at Delmar this year were compared to the very slow track speed from last year. So most of the sprints have a variant of from -20 to over -30. The result is that, unless you handicap without adjustments, the computer way over values a Delmar race run in virtually the same time as a Hollywood or Santa Anita race.

Other than taking lines from Hollywood and Santa Anita to compare to, how are successful players accounting for horses legitmately coming into form at Delmar compared to their last few races?

In the example below the SA race is just a little faster, but the TPR and energy are off the charts for the Dmr race!!!

Thanks,

Bill

JIGSAW · 08-24-2008, 05:55 PM

Good work. Did you report these findings to the F.B.I. ?

JIGSAW · 08-24-2008, 06:37 PM

Just hit Race 3 at Del Mar. The 4 horse paid $15.80 to win and the Exacta paid $21.50. I used the 6th line from Santa Anita. I think Pace line Selection is 90% of this game. Perhaps the Trackmaster numbers are wrong or skewed.
Did you mention your findings to TrackMaster?

JIGSAW · 08-24-2008, 06:57 PM

Race 5 #10 Excessive dreamer. Wins his last race at 5.5 in 46 110 flat on the lead. 8 Minutes to post. Do these other horses hammer this horse or will this horse on the lead use his 24 second late speed? 21-1 If this horse is around the lead they better watch out Sadler 30%. Interesting.

Bet across the board.

Bill Lyster · 08-24-2008, 06:59 PM

I understand that TM reviews races periodically for conformance with their variants. When that happens they restate variants appropriately. Unfortunately, it takes a while for the pattern to develop. I wasn't necessarily complaining, just asking how, players who are successful at Delmar, handled the adjustment.

Bill

JIGSAW · 08-24-2008, 07:38 PM

That is why I do not post very often I always am taken the wrong way. Let me make amends. You are the man and everything you post is very interesting to me. My 10 horse in the 5th race grabbed the lead and was run down at 30 to one. Match Up theory. When a horse is forced to run faster at the beginning of the race it will cost him at the end. Perfect example.

1 minute to post RUMBA ALONG

JIGSAW · 08-24-2008, 08:11 PM

Fish or Cut Bait. This horse wins or its dead last.

3 minutes to post 7-5 I will pass the race.

You can't win betting the Favorite and you can't win betting against the Favorite.

This took me 10 years before I understood what this meant. Why play these races when you can cherry pick and make money on easy races that will pay make a living wages. Some people love throwing money away.

JIGSAW · 08-24-2008, 08:38 PM

The Midnight Lute is 3-5 pass the race for the win. Race 8

JIGSAW · 08-24-2008, 09:15 PM

Military Storm 13-1

across the board. Yes I know that there are 2 other speed horses in the race and will probably hook up and burn each other out.

1 minute to post

JIGSAW · 08-24-2008, 09:44 PM

Longshot

9 horse Delosvientos Horse cutting back in distance. Will have the lead.

3 minutes to post 19 to 1

08-24-2008, 05:55 PM	#2
JIGSAW AlwNW2X Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 28	Del Mar variants Good work. Did you report these findings to the F.B.I. ?

08-24-2008, 06:37 PM	#3
JIGSAW AlwNW2X Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 28	Race 3 Del Mar Just hit Race 3 at Del Mar. The 4 horse paid $15.80 to win and the Exacta paid $21.50. I used the 6th line from Santa Anita. I think Pace line Selection is 90% of this game. Perhaps the Trackmaster numbers are wrong or skewed. Did you mention your findings to TrackMaster?

08-24-2008, 06:57 PM	#4
JIGSAW AlwNW2X Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 28	I see Race 5 #10 Excessive dreamer. Wins his last race at 5.5 in 46 110 flat on the lead. 8 Minutes to post. Do these other horses hammer this horse or will this horse on the lead use his 24 second late speed? 21-1 If this horse is around the lead they better watch out Sadler 30%. Interesting. Bet across the board.

08-24-2008, 06:59 PM	#5
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,491	I understand that TM reviews races periodically for conformance with their variants. When that happens they restate variants appropriately. Unfortunately, it takes a while for the pattern to develop. I wasn't necessarily complaining, just asking how, players who are successful at Delmar, handled the adjustment. Bill Last edited by Bill Lyster; 08-24-2008 at 07:01 PM. Reason: clarified text

08-24-2008, 07:38 PM	#6
JIGSAW AlwNW2X Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 28	Postings That is why I do not post very often I always am taken the wrong way. Let me make amends. You are the man and everything you post is very interesting to me. My 10 horse in the 5th race grabbed the lead and was run down at 30 to one. Match Up theory. When a horse is forced to run faster at the beginning of the race it will cost him at the end. Perfect example. 1 minute to post RUMBA ALONG

08-24-2008, 01:18 PM	#1
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,491	Delmar Variants This year I've noticed that almost all horses that ran early at Delmar this year were compared to the very slow track speed from last year. So most of the sprints have a variant of from -20 to over -30. The result is that, unless you handicap without adjustments, the computer way over values a Delmar race run in virtually the same time as a Hollywood or Santa Anita race. Other than taking lines from Hollywood and Santa Anita to compare to, how are successful players accounting for horses legitmately coming into form at Delmar compared to their last few races? In the example below the SA race is just a little faster, but the TPR and energy are off the charts for the Dmr race!!! Thanks, Bill Attached Images

08-24-2008, 08:11 PM	#7
JIGSAW AlwNW2X Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 28	Magnificience Fish or Cut Bait. This horse wins or its dead last. 3 minutes to post 7-5 I will pass the race. You can't win betting the Favorite and you can't win betting against the Favorite. This took me 10 years before I understood what this meant. Why play these races when you can cherry pick and make money on easy races that will pay make a living wages. Some people love throwing money away.

08-24-2008, 08:38 PM	#8
JIGSAW AlwNW2X Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 28	Midnight Lute The Midnight Lute is 3-5 pass the race for the win. Race 8

08-24-2008, 09:15 PM	#9
JIGSAW AlwNW2X Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 28	Del Mar race 9 Military Storm 13-1 across the board. Yes I know that there are 2 other speed horses in the race and will probably hook up and burn each other out. 1 minute to post

08-24-2008, 09:44 PM	#10
JIGSAW AlwNW2X Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 28	Race 10 Longshot 9 horse Delosvientos Horse cutting back in distance. Will have the lead. 3 minutes to post 19 to 1

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