Total Energy - Pace and Cap

Binder · 10-15-2005, 08:24 AM

Hi Jeff
http://bindfold.com/images/78.pdf page 12

Here is an excellent article by Doc about Total Energy
and is the reason I hide to the Top 5 with ties TE

also I found the manual for EXDC
Can you send me in a email you address I will just send you the hard copy
rather than scan it
You can copy it or send it back when your done

Bill

Binder · 10-15-2005, 12:18 PM

In a few sentence

ok I will try and hopefully get some help
I will use two examples
Xcape and DuckSauce

This horse is running today at LRL race 1 $30000 purse on Maryland million day
He ran this race at Pimlico

The other is in race 4 today at philly Park
Duck Sause ran this race at DEl today its at Philly running for
$11,500
both lines are from 6.0 races

Total energy example

2 lines from 6.0 Furlong races

PN#	Name	Line	Track	Distance	1stc	2ndc	FinC	BL1	BL2	BLS	BlF	SR	ESP
3	Duck Sause	3	Del	6.0	21.8	45.3	111.7	4.40	2.80	1.60	0.00	78	EAR
4	XCAPE	2	Pim	6.0	22.0	45.2	110.5	5.10	6.50	6.00	0.00	83	PRE

Now I am showing the readouts from screen 2 in Val3

Velocity and Energy

Total energy example

2 lines from 6.0 Furlong races

PN#	Name	Line	Total En	F1	F2	F3	SC
6	Duck Sause	3	166.61	59.74	56.44	50.42	58.09
4	XCAPE	2	168.93	59.07	56.66	53.20	57.86

Notice how # 4 has a much better Total Energy
and look at the velocity readouts
Xcape is the much better line
also if you add F1 - F2 and F3 you get total Energy

59.07
56.66
53.20
168.93

10-15-2005, 02:13 PM

From getting burned repeatedly, I no longer LIMIT my choices in SPRINTS to the top five. Improving early is so common a factor in PROJECTING sprint winners that it is OFTEN the EPR that is predictive. Sprints are so often STYLE over substance (total energy) anyway.

Think about it: a rider has a horse rounding into form and did not persist LAST OUT (NOT quite ready to win), waiting for the next race. Total energy might be down relative to the group today, but this horse projects a better performance today.

Look at the horse's style. If it is 8th total and is a sprint sustained, probably leave it out, but an early/presser, one might have to consider it especially if there was not a lot of front end to compete with it today.

Binder · 10-15-2005, 02:39 PM

Doc's instructions are to take the Top 5 Total Energy and Primary
line score ranks horses, Its the best 5 of two factors not just Total Energy

10-15-2005, 02:57 PM

Don't care what the instructions are, telling you what works in the real world.

Binder · 10-15-2005, 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TaWee

From getting burned repeatedly, I no longer LIMIT my choices in SPRINTS to the top five. Improving early is so common a factor in PROJECTING sprint winners that it is OFTEN the EPR that is predictive. Sprints are so often STYLE over substance (total energy) anyway.

Think about it: a rider has a horse rounding into form and did not persist LAST OUT (NOT quite ready to win), waiting for the next race. Total energy might be down relative to the group today, but this horse projects a better performance today.

Look at the horse's style. If it is 8th total and is a sprint sustained, probably leave it out, but an early/presser, one might have to consider it especially if there was not a lot of front end to compete with it today.

I don't understand, Tim I am lost ,What about best of the last 3 ?
and what about the other contenders
need help with this idea

10-15-2005, 04:02 PM

FIRST each race is unique so it has to be evaluated independently.

The e/l balance and style for MOST sprints at MOST tracks is both POSITIVE and early, early/presser. MOST of the sprint winners belong there from our keeping records. IF the sprint projects "speed duel" (two or more nags above 70% median in their history) a "picking up the pieces' S/P type might get there. BUT that usually DOES NOT HAPPEN. Or if the S/P has a huge total energy advantage on it's side, the can overwhelm a field. You see this with higher calss sprinters all the time.

FORM cycle: If a horse is rounding into form, as a sprinter, it is usually by showing improving early speed by velocity, not position. A review of the horse's total record will tell one WHERE on that cylce they are at today and where they HAVE BEEN. If a horse usually runs too fast early (above 70% median) and improving EPR is not as notable a factor. As the horse rounds into form, but not quite there, it will go progressively further into a contest as a competitor. The total energy improves as does their EPR. As the animal progresses the LATER fractions will usually improve as well, but WHILE it is moving that way, the improving early might be the only key to this form cycle improvement. As it does progress, it might fall short last out, but that improvement is still there nonetheless, so often the rider, understanding he has a live mount, will not punish the horse and will not persist, saving it for the next time. So, the final fraction will suffer, keeping the total energy LOWER than it is capable of being. The animal got his prep, he is competitive and waitng for the next time out. A review of all the lines will show what this one has done, so last out can be a guage. STYLE is very OFTEN more important that total energy especially when PROJECTING.

If on the other hand, a sprinter of an S/P nature needs a total energy near the top all the time to be a competitor. That one has to OVERCOME the normal e/l style of the surface and distance so the TOTAL energy has to be to it's advantage.

shoeless · 10-15-2005, 08:14 PM

Both of you good job,that's more like it. Jeff

shoeless · 10-15-2005, 08:21 PM

Tim, Maybe read from pg12 on in that FU Binder put up it's some interesting stuff. Jeff

10-15-2005, 08:35 PM

that's all well and good, but I DON'T FIND IT SO in sprints at many a little venue...maybe they were all at NAME tracks, I don't know

TOTAL energy is like the gas in the tank and the style is the way they get the mileage, BUT you have to project

10-15-2005, 08:24 AM	#1
Binder Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Northern NJ Posts: 674	Total Energy Hi Jeff http://bindfold.com/images/78.pdf page 12 Here is an excellent article by Doc about Total Energy and is the reason I hide to the Top 5 with ties TE also I found the manual for EXDC Can you send me in a email you address I will just send you the hard copy rather than scan it You can copy it or send it back when your done Bill

10-15-2005, 02:13 PM	#3
TaWee Guest Posts: n/a	except sprints From getting burned repeatedly, I no longer LIMIT my choices in SPRINTS to the top five. Improving early is so common a factor in PROJECTING sprint winners that it is OFTEN the EPR that is predictive. Sprints are so often STYLE over substance (total energy) anyway. Think about it: a rider has a horse rounding into form and did not persist LAST OUT (NOT quite ready to win), waiting for the next race. Total energy might be down relative to the group today, but this horse projects a better performance today. Look at the horse's style. If it is 8th total and is a sprint sustained, probably leave it out, but an early/presser, one might have to consider it especially if there was not a lot of front end to compete with it today.

10-15-2005, 02:39 PM	#4
Binder Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Northern NJ Posts: 674	2 factors Doc's instructions are to take the Top 5 Total Energy and Primary line score ranks horses, Its the best 5 of two factors not just Total Energy

10-15-2005, 02:57 PM	#5
TaWee Guest Posts: n/a	Reality vs HISTORY Don't care what the instructions are, telling you what works in the real world.

10-15-2005, 04:02 PM	#7
TaWee Guest Posts: n/a	here's the logic FIRST each race is unique so it has to be evaluated independently. The e/l balance and style for MOST sprints at MOST tracks is both POSITIVE and early, early/presser. MOST of the sprint winners belong there from our keeping records. IF the sprint projects "speed duel" (two or more nags above 70% median in their history) a "picking up the pieces' S/P type might get there. BUT that usually DOES NOT HAPPEN. Or if the S/P has a huge total energy advantage on it's side, the can overwhelm a field. You see this with higher calss sprinters all the time. FORM cycle: If a horse is rounding into form, as a sprinter, it is usually by showing improving early speed by velocity, not position. A review of the horse's total record will tell one WHERE on that cylce they are at today and where they HAVE BEEN. If a horse usually runs too fast early (above 70% median) and improving EPR is not as notable a factor. As the horse rounds into form, but not quite there, it will go progressively further into a contest as a competitor. The total energy improves as does their EPR. As the animal progresses the LATER fractions will usually improve as well, but WHILE it is moving that way, the improving early might be the only key to this form cycle improvement. As it does progress, it might fall short last out, but that improvement is still there nonetheless, so often the rider, understanding he has a live mount, will not punish the horse and will not persist, saving it for the next time. So, the final fraction will suffer, keeping the total energy LOWER than it is capable of being. The animal got his prep, he is competitive and waitng for the next time out. A review of all the lines will show what this one has done, so last out can be a guage. STYLE is very OFTEN more important that total energy especially when PROJECTING. If on the other hand, a sprinter of an S/P nature needs a total energy near the top all the time to be a competitor. That one has to OVERCOME the normal e/l style of the surface and distance so the TOTAL energy has to be to it's advantage.

10-15-2005, 08:14 PM	#8
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,161	Both of you good job,that's more like it. Jeff

10-15-2005, 08:21 PM	#9
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,161	Tim, Maybe read from pg12 on in that FU Binder put up it's some interesting stuff. Jeff

10-15-2005, 08:35 PM	#10
TaWee Guest Posts: n/a	okay that's all well and good, but I DON'T FIND IT SO in sprints at many a little venue...maybe they were all at NAME tracks, I don't know TOTAL energy is like the gas in the tank and the style is the way they get the mileage, BUT you have to project Last edited by TaWee; 10-15-2005 at 08:38 PM.