Exotic Wagering / Help Wanted

[RichieP]

Any experienced exotic wagerers out there who might be willing to shed some light on runout size? Trifecta advice and feedback would be most welcome.

I am exploring some really unknown territory for ME.

Thank you in advance for any replies
Richie

[alydar_ David]

Richie,

William T. Ziemba has written some excellent books on this subject. They're out of print and may be hard to find though. He is currently a math professor at M.I.T.; so be forewarned, his material is technical and not for the feint of heart.

Barry Meadow still sells Money Secrets At The Racetrack and that explains the mathematics of exotic betting reasonably well.

Dick Mitchell also wrote about the subject, but I'm not sure how easily you can obtain his books. He also has a video on money management which is excellent. It's fun to see him hopping around getting excited about numbers.

In a nutshell exotic wagering comes down to exploiting market inefficiencies. You want to make the exotic wager when it's paying more than it "should" pay. You must have an edge. No edge, no bet.

All three of the above mentioned authors do a good job of explaining the process of how to determine that.

[alydar_ David]

Update:

Dr. Z's books have been reprinted and are available for sale at:

http://www.hypernormal.com

Correction:

He was just visiting at M.I.T. this year and taught at Oxford this summer. He normally hangs his hat at the Universtiy of BC in Vancouver.

[RichieP]

David

Thank you!

You are one of the FEW people who are truly legends in other people's minds!
lol

I really appreciate the feedback matey.

I am also looking for feedback from anyone who wagers triples consistently
not looking for you to give the store away ( catch my drift?)
maybe a little feedback on structuring ??

I am NOT interested in boxing 4 horses. PERIOD

Regards
Richie

[shoeless]

Richie, I know you bet 2 horses to win so this probably wont help you much but I will key 1 horse on top of my next 3 contenders .On a $1 ticket it will cost you $6. Shoeless

[Jonathan Steele]

Gentlemen,

Greetings. I know a thing or two about this subject . However, I don't claim to be an expert as I'm still learning each time I invest in Pari-Mutuel Funds about the art of structuring exotic wagers.

First, you have to have a Key horse...sometimes two. These are your primary horse(s) that, according to your analysis, have a very good chance of finishing in the money. Needless to say, if you're proficient with Validator and/or Speculator, you'll not have too much trouble finding your Key horse(s).

Next, you need to determine what secondary horses have a chance of upsetting your primary horses (by a nose, head, neck, etc.). Many times they're Pressers. Other times they're closers with the best recent final fractions and/or with the best speed figs out of all the other closers in that particular race AND have speed figs not too far behind the 'best' horses in the race.

Then again, if there's a speed duel or track bias favoring Closers, you have Early horse(s) fading out of first and hanging on for 2nd, 3rd or 4th place finishes. Needless to say, there are more than a few scenarios.

A simple way to structure a Trifecta bet would be like this:

KH = Key horse(s)

KH/B-C-D/B-C-D then put your KH in the second slot with horses B-C-D in the first position (B-C-D/KH/B-C-D). Finally, depending upon your bankroll and confidence, you can put your KH in the third (Place) position and structure your wager like this B-C-D/B-C-D/KH.

Each of the above is six combinations x your base wager of $1.00 or more. Of course, that's just a very basic way to structure the bet depending on, like I said before, how 'sure' you are of your analysis.

Using Sartin-style two-horse bets you can also structure the bet like this:

KH1, KH2/C-D-E/C-D-E then put your two Key horses in the second position C-D-E/KH1, KH2/C-D-E, etc. You can also use more horses too (once again, depending upon your assessment of the contenders), e.g. KH1, KH2/C-D-E/C-D-E-F, etc. which would cost you a li'l bit more money because of the additional combinations.

Also, Michael Pizzolla's "Fulcrum horse" more times than not finishes in the money and that too is a very good horse to use as a Key Horse in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th positions. Don't forget Counter Energy horses either.

Needless to say, there are many other ways to structure Trifectas and Superfectas depending upon the size of the field, closeness of the competitors, etc. I've only scratched the surface.

Exotic bets can be as simple or complex as you want to make 'em. Personally, I prefer simple.

And I even haven't mentioned odds and expected payoffs which I'm still trying to get a handle on and am not qualified to give my two cents on. There's a book by Jerry Samovitz on this subject which I've heard is very good (but don't have in my library yet) called BETTING & BEATING THE EXOTICS which I'm sure covers this all-important aspect of exotic wagering. Here's the link:

http://www.gamblersbook.com/weblink....il/572405.html

I hope I've shed some light.

Jon

p.s. If you don't have this neat little program and are interested in exotic wagers, then I highly recommend that you download this free utility right now!

http://www.horseracinghandicapper.com/wagercomp.exe

[shoeless]

You can count me in on David's fan club, I wish people like him,Pino,Jon and Dick would post more often.They all seem to have a lot of good ideas concerning the methodology. Shoeless

[shoeless]

Jon,Good post I was hoping you would comment on the subject. Shoeless

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by Jonathan Steele

Gentlemen,

Greetings. I know a thing or two about this subject . However, I don't claim to be an expert as I'm still learning each time I invest in Pari-Mutuel Funds about the art of structuring exotic wagers.

First, you have to have a Key horse...sometimes two. These are your primary horse(s) that, according to your analysis, have a very good chance of finishing in the money. Needless to say, if you're proficient with Validator and/or Speculator, you'll not have too much trouble finding your Key horse(s).

Next, you need to determine what secondary horses have a chance of upsetting your primary horses (by a nose, head, neck, etc.). Many times they're Pressers. Other times they're closers with the best recent final fractions and/or with the best speed figs out of all the other closers in that particular race AND have speed figs not too far behind the 'best' horses in the race.

Then again, if there's a speed duel or track bias favoring Closers, you have Early horse(s) fading out of first and hanging on for 2nd, 3rd or 4th place finishes. Needless to say, there are more than a few scenarios.

A simple way to structure a Trifecta bet would be like this:

KH = Key horse(s)

KH/B-C-D/B-C-D then put your KH in the second slot with horses B-C-D in the first position (B-C-D/KH/B-C-D). Finally, depending upon your bankroll and confidence, you can put your KH in the third (Place) position and structure your wager like this B-C-D/B-C-D/KH.

Each of the above is six combinations x your base wager of $1.00 or more. Of course, that's just a very basic way to structure the bet depending on, like I said before, how 'sure' you are of your analysis.

Using Sartin-style two-horse bets you can also structure the bet like this:

KH1, KH2/C-D-E/C-D-E then put your two Key horses in the second position C-D-E/KH1, KH2/C-D-E, etc. You can also use more horses too (once again, depending upon your assessment of the contenders), e.g. KH1, KH2/C-D-E/C-D-E-F, etc. which would cost you a li'l bit more money because of the additional combinations.

Also, Michael Pizzolla's "Fulcrum horse" more times than not finishes in the money and that too is a very good horse to use as a Key Horse in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th positions. Don't forget Counter Energy horses either.

Needless to say, there are many other ways to structure Trifectas and Superfectas depending upon the size of the field, closeness of the competitors, etc. I've only scratched the surface.

Exotic bets can be as simple or complex as you want to make 'em. Personally, I prefer simple.

And I even haven't mentioned odds and expected payoffs which I'm still trying to get a handle on and am not qualified to give my two cents on. There's a book by Jerry Samovitz on this subject which I've heard is very good (but don't have in my library yet) called BETTING & BEATING THE EXOTICS which I'm sure covers this all-important aspect of exotic wagering. Here's the link:

http://www.gamblersbook.com/weblink....il/572405.html

I hope I've shed some light.

Jon

p.s. If you don't have this neat little program and are interested in exotic wagers, then I highly recommend that you download this free utility right now!

http://www.horseracinghandicapper.com/wagercomp.exe

Jon,

I have copied and printed your post. Thank you so much for taking the time to help me. I was hoping u would post cause I know the exotics especially tri's seem to be your choice of wagering.

I take seriously your outline and advice to me.

I am studying a certain race type Jon for 2 weeks now diligently. I am seeing some results that are pretty good as far as seeing the win place and show horse in a limited number of contenders. I am now gonna go back and look at the structures you have laid out to see what I see.

Stay cool,
Richie

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by shoeless

Richie, I know you bet 2 horses to win so this probably wont help you much but I will key 1 horse on top of my next 3 contenders .On a $1 ticket it will cost you $6. Shoeless

Thanx Jeff

sometimes the real simple ticket limiting combos is the best

I am gonna run some races isolating this "key" guy.
Richie