Old Style -- TPR

[alydar_ David]

The last two days have been gravy trains for old style TPR applications. You can use any of a variety of programs to get the numbers. You can also do it by hand using a pencil, a piece of paper and a $5 calculator.


Going by the book, using:

1) L.A.S.T. paceline guidelines

2) Considering contenders within 5 points of the top TPR

3) Assigning them "early" or "late" designations

4) Betting best "early" and best "late"

*And for ties I use the "pig factor." *snort*

Let's take a look at a few of them from today.

[alydar_ David]

Saturday 11/10/2007
PHA 7th Track Condition: Fast

#1 was scratched

Here's everybody:

[alydar_ David]

Here are horses within 5 points of the top TPR:

[alydar_ David]

I should mention that TOT = TPR

As you handicap the race you can note the running styles. Or, you can let the computer do it for you:

[alydar_ David]

We consider all five of these horses to be contenders. We've also stipulated that we're going to call each of them early or late.

#8 S/P will be late with a 94
#3 EP will be early with a 92
#1a E will be early with a 95
#7 E will be early with a 90
#4 S will be late with a 94

The best early horse has a 95. The #1a is our early horse.

There are two horses tied for late. They each have a 94. That's #8 and #4.
I used the pig factor to separate them and picked #4. *snort*

[alydar_ David]

LRL 9th was on the turf.
The turf was firm.
Scratches were #2, #2x, #8 and #10

(For some reason the Syn upload from the hard drive isn't working for this race, maybe I had a blonde moment saving it)

We'll muddle on anyway.

Here were the top contenders using L.A.S.T. that were within 5 points of the best TPR. (I know this because I write them down on a piece of paper when I'm doing the races. This is a lesson learned the hard way...many times over.)

#4 101 89 190
#3 90 98 188
#5 96 92 188
#1 89 96 185
#7 88 97 185

All of them are "Sus" which we'll call late. Remember, they're either early or late for this procedure. We're only looking at EPR and FFR to make our picks.

#3 is the best late with 98.
#7 is the next best late with 97.

Those are our two bets:

[admin]

in your philly example
You are showing race 7 horses
the winner # 4 Wire Whip paid $6.60
Jeff and I both had it .

The winner of race 8 was #4 signoella we got a big HELLO
from Keith Jones on that one

Thanks for you presentation
I am using the EPR and LPR and TPR numbers
as a tool I find them very helpful

Thanks Bill

[alydar_ David]

HOL 5th
This was a "can't lose" race according to the public. #4 Silver Stetson was bet down to 1/2.

The track was fast & firm.

Arrgh. I blew the save again! My duh.

Oh well. You can still get the point these posts are making.

Only four horses qualified as being within 5 point of the top TPR:

#1 94 94 188 S/P
#4 94 94 188 S/P
#3 94 91 185 E
#2 92 91 183 E

#3 is the best of the two early horses with a 94. The #1 and #4 are tied for late with a 94 each. Using the pig factor I got off the super chalk and bet #1.

Bets #3 and #1 to win:

[alydar_ David]

In summary, going by the book:

1) Use L.A.S.T -- last paceline unless layoff, atypical distance, surface, trouble.

2) Look at contenders with 5 points of top TPR

3) Assign "early" or "late" designations to each horse

4) Bet the best early and the best late

Use the pig factor for ties.

Simple? Yes. But it works!

:>)

[alydar_ David]

Ah, you're right, Bill!

LOL. I posted the wrong price for that race. In any event I think people can get the idea I was conveying.

Glad you guys both cashed.

:>)

Maybe I can dig up a good PHA race for tomorrow and post it in the Selections folder.