MatchUp Example--Using RDSS

[Turbulator]

Today was my first day testing RDSS. I’m still a novice at it, but for now I can get it up and running and figure things out well enough to get going.

There were a lot of interesting races today. I played two tracks--MTR and EMD. It was a bit much, especially with my less than adequate Internet connection and all of the new things to do, but I’m going to put up one race in particular that I think is a good one to learn from. It’s a common pattern that repeats frequently. Try and see how you would have handled the situation using my pace and power lines.

[You might have selected different lines than me, that’s entirely possible. I’ve never been a big fan off the adage, “last three comparable.” That always seemed so arbitrary to me. Why not last four—or five? I’ve never been a big fan of speed ratings either. I just never liked the idea of them, but most software programs today depend upon them. I’m sure they work to some degree, but aren’t they really just an adjusted final time? Anyway, using the MatchUp, that adage isn’t always applicable, especially with the advent of power lines.

I’m sure best of last three speed ratings comparable works well for those who are using it, and I use it sometimes myself, but for now I don’t have any problem taking the best of the last three or going back 5, 6, 7 or 8 lines—and I try not to look at the speed ratings—but sometimes I can’t help it. So be forewarned. These are my Pace (power lines), and I don’t have any set rules for deciding how far back I’ll go or which ones I’ll use.]

So this is how I did things today.

The Procedure:

Step 1. Identify Running styles

The first thing I do when identifying running styles is to look for any and all horses who can get the lead at the first call. Whether they are routers or sprinters, I mark them all. Ideally they’ll have the had the lead at the first and second call. The way I did it today was to go through and mark all the earlies, and then just analyze them first—wherever their lines are in the PPs—sprint or route.

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Step 2. Project the pace

Once I’ve lined up all the earlies, I eliminate the slowest of the slow and look at who is left. I try to reasonably assume who is going to get the lead. Usually at this point I can determine if I have too many earlies, so that leads me to my next step. But before I do the next step I decide on the projected pace from the early horses I’ve already selected.

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Step 3. Early (E) or other than early (OTE)

Too many earlies competing for the lead, out they go. Not enough earlies—then I have a problem that has to be addressed. Can the lone early, or the faster of two earlies—wire the race? Sometimes I say yes, other times no. It can be a difficult problem and the answer isn’t always evident—but I have to make a decision here one way or
the other.

Step 4. If E, eliminate the OTEs, if OTE eliminate the Es

When eliminating Es I’m careful not to eliminate horses who can also run EP. The same is true for the OTEs. Some of these kinds of horses can also go wire-to-wire. A quick look at the PPs can usually tell you one-way or the other.

Step 5. Matchup the contenders

I look at the remaining horses either in the form or in RDSS and compare them line for line—one to the other. Sometimes it’s fairly apparent who is best and other times it isn’t so clear. This is the hardest part of the process in my opinion and takes la lot of practice. Still other times it’s a big fat guess--that's when I usually pass. But
sometimes it’s easy, and that’s when it’s fun.

Race #10 MTR

The first thing you notice (1st screen shot) is five speed horses. But three of those horses are route speed. The 1 horse has two lines. One is from 9 races back where he showed two good races on the front end and the other is a more recent race reflecting what seems to be an early presser style that he's changed too in recent races.

I eliminated the route horses, and decided the pace would be set by the 4 and not the 1. (Screen shot #2) So is the race going to run E or OTE? Now I must ask myself this very important question: can the four go wire-to-wire? I decided no. The 4 cannot wire the race. For one thing he didn’t hold on very well last time when faced with pressure. These decisions aren’t always right but you have to start somewhere--and you have to make them. My decision was OTE. Don’t ask me for a better explanation that that. It's just the way I felt. So the next step is to eliminate the Es and that leaves me with this: (Screen shot #3)

At this point the winner should stick out like a sore thumb, but I didn’t see it. Now I don’t consider all of the horses shown to be contenders. So what I do is eliminate the slow ones I don’t think can compete, and then look at who is left so my screen will now look like this: (Screen shot # 4)

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The Contenders

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Notice I put the 6 back in because 7 lines back he had a good sprint race coming from off the pace. I eliminated the 8 (the favorite) because he was too slow and too far back at the first three calls. The winner should now be a standout, but for some unexplainable reason I just overlooked it. It was probably combination of time pressure and YouBet acting up. Actually, I was going to bet these three horses to win (Yes, I’m going to stop doing that), but I got shut out. I had the winner, but that damn YouBet was giving me such a headache that I got shut out twice today—once with a winner and once with a loser. In retrospect this should have been an easy single.

But there is one thing that confused me about the 10. And that is his first call. He seems too far back. But notice his fractions, they are far superior to the other two but well behind the speed horse, and two of them are well below the projected pace. Therefore I think I should have realized that he wouldn’t be in sixth position at the first call but more like 2nd or 3rd—and not that far back. I’m not sure why really, but it just feels that way. There must be a logical explanation for it, but I just can’t put my finger on it. If that’s correct though, then he should be in first position or close to it by the second call—pulling away down the stretch. And lo and behold, guess what happened.

Anyway it’s a good race to learn from. Oh, and his pace line is the 4th one back. But his third race back was a route, so I guess that counts as best of last three comparable—that terminology has always confused me.

This is a screen shot of the winner, #10.

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The result chart

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Race #10 MTR

The 1 horse has two lines. One is from 9 races back where he showed two good races on the front end and the other is a more recent race reflecting what seems to be an early presser style that he's changed too in recent races.

This is incorrect. Both of the 1s lines are from 9 and 10 races back.

In the next screen shot (contenders) is the 1s more recent race reflecting an apparent change in style.

[Forego]

turbulator i have read a few of your recent posts. if you do not mind some feedback from afar here it is.

consider making your selections in advance. well in advance after reading your posts.

then you have 2 options in my opinion either of which should work well.

advance bet before odds are known

bet at 3 minutes to post if odds are acceptable to you. your decision on who to bet has been pre determined long before.

if 3 minutes to post still gets you shut out consider changing wagering venue.

best of luck