Saratoga Turf Beware - Pace and Cap

shoeless · 08-09-2005, 07:06 PM

I know quite a few of you wont notice this or probably wont care but so far at races 1 mile or more post positions 8 on out are 4 out of 93.Food for thought. Shoeless

alydar_ David · 08-10-2005, 10:38 AM

Thanks for the heads up, shoeless.

:>)

Phase III Lives · 08-10-2005, 01:11 PM

that's good info ... the one other thing you need to know though is how many of those 93 actually had 8 or more. I haven't even looked at Saratoga this year but it's another variable. If 85 of those races only had 7 runners or less then posts 8 on up would be 4 outta 8... just another perspective.

shoeless · 08-10-2005, 03:53 PM

That's 4 winners out of 93 horses that have started out of post position 8 or higher.I dont know if that will make a difference on what you posted or not.But do what you like I wont playing those posts until they show me something.Jeff

Phase III Lives · 08-10-2005, 04:04 PM

Well I took a different take on this kind of thing back when I calculated my own impact values for PP's back in the 80's - it was quite informative and at times profitable - but it just got to be one of those things that I said - enuff !

What I am saying is this .... just saying 4 out of all 93 races could be misleading IF IF IF ...

say 85 of those races had 7 horses. What are the odds of any horse from the 8 hole winning? 0 %.... no chance at all. So in the remaining races - say they all had only 8 horses. Of those 8 races (93-85=8), 4 were won by the 8 horse.

Now should I look at it as 4 out of 93 (4%)? or 4 out of 8(50%) ? A huge difference.

shoeless · 08-10-2005, 04:16 PM

I think there is a little confusion here.It is NOT 4 out of 93 races, it's 4 out of the 93 HORSES that have started OUT of those post positions.There is a big difference.

Phase III Lives · 08-10-2005, 04:20 PM

Well that is significant ... and very valid. If there are 8 horses per race you'd expect the 8 to win about 16%, 10 horses 10 % but they are winning less than 5%,

shoeless · 08-10-2005, 06:04 PM

To take this discussion a little further post 6 has only won 1 out of 36 starts and post 7 has done the best 6 out of 36 starts.I guess the main thing Im trying to get across is that due to TODAY'S RACING I believe you cant use any of the Sartin Programs 100% of what is written the follow ups.Maybe you have to use some of what was written in the white paper even though it was written way back when. Shoeless

cryptic1 · 08-10-2005, 07:26 PM

I'm also guessing that your numbers make no distinction between the
inner and outer turf courses. In the past when I collected such data, there
was a significant difference between the two in relationship to the outside
post positions.

cryptic1

08-09-2005, 07:06 PM	#1
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,644	Saratoga Turf Beware I know quite a few of you wont notice this or probably wont care but so far at races 1 mile or more post positions 8 on out are 4 out of 93.Food for thought. Shoeless

08-10-2005, 10:38 AM	#2
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Thanks for the heads up, shoeless. :>)

08-10-2005, 01:11 PM	#3
Phase III Lives Grade 2 Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Southern Md Posts: 94	that's good info ... the one other thing you need to know though is how many of those 93 actually had 8 or more. I haven't even looked at Saratoga this year but it's another variable. If 85 of those races only had 7 runners or less then posts 8 on up would be 4 outta 8... just another perspective.

08-10-2005, 03:53 PM	#4
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,644	That's 4 winners out of 93 horses that have started out of post position 8 or higher.I dont know if that will make a difference on what you posted or not.But do what you like I wont playing those posts until they show me something.Jeff

08-10-2005, 04:04 PM	#5
Phase III Lives Grade 2 Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Southern Md Posts: 94	Well I took a different take on this kind of thing back when I calculated my own impact values for PP's back in the 80's - it was quite informative and at times profitable - but it just got to be one of those things that I said - enuff ! What I am saying is this .... just saying 4 out of all 93 races could be misleading IF IF IF ... say 85 of those races had 7 horses. What are the odds of any horse from the 8 hole winning? 0 %.... no chance at all. So in the remaining races - say they all had only 8 horses. Of those 8 races (93-85=8), 4 were won by the 8 horse. Now should I look at it as 4 out of 93 (4%)? or 4 out of 8(50%) ? A huge difference.

08-10-2005, 04:16 PM	#6
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,644	I think there is a little confusion here.It is NOT 4 out of 93 races, it's 4 out of the 93 HORSES that have started OUT of those post positions.There is a big difference.

08-10-2005, 04:20 PM	#7
Phase III Lives Grade 2 Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Southern Md Posts: 94	Well that is significant ... and very valid. If there are 8 horses per race you'd expect the 8 to win about 16%, 10 horses 10 % but they are winning less than 5%,

08-10-2005, 06:04 PM	#8
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,644	To take this discussion a little further post 6 has only won 1 out of 36 starts and post 7 has done the best 6 out of 36 starts.I guess the main thing Im trying to get across is that due to TODAY'S RACING I believe you cant use any of the Sartin Programs 100% of what is written the follow ups.Maybe you have to use some of what was written in the white paper even though it was written way back when. Shoeless

08-10-2005, 07:26 PM	#9
cryptic1 Maiden Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 1	I'm also guessing that your numbers make no distinction between the inner and outer turf courses. In the past when I collected such data, there was a significant difference between the two in relationship to the outside post positions. cryptic1