Kentucky Derby Win Contenders

[RichieP]

Howard Sartin's guidelines for TRUE Kentucky Derby WIN contenders are to consider only win and place horses from Grade 1 and Grade 2 prep races at 8.5f and longer.

Here they are:

3/3:
Robert Lewis
w - Great Hunter
p - Sam P

Fountain of Youth
w - Scat Daddy
p - Stormello

3/10:
w - Circular Quay
p - Ketchikan

3/17:
San Felipe
w - Cobalt Blue
p - Air Commander

3/24:
Lane's End
w - Hard Spun
p - Sedgefield

3/31:
Florida Derby
w - Scat Daddy
p - Notional

4/7:
Santa Anita Derby
w - Tiago
p - King of the Roxy

Illinois Derby
w - Cowtown Cat
p - Reporting for Duty

Wood Memorial
w - Nobizlikeshowbiz
p - Sightseeing

4/14:
Blue Grass
w - Dominican
p - Street Sense

Arkansas Derby
w - Curlin
p - Storm in May

4/21:
Lexington
w - Slew's Tizzy
p - Starbase

[admin]

Hi Rich
thanks
If you use only these contenders from these races
The Top 5 Total Energy and Primary Line score
has done very very well over the years

The whole issue of the creation of Val 4
came from my reading and talking to Doc about the
pacelines from many of your listed races

Thanks for the reminder

[Rverge]

hello everyone, if intrested i inputed 18 horses into all-in-one v5. i just wanted to get an idea how it might be run. used the last pace line for each horse with adjustments for BL. hey correct me if i did things wrong, and i just did this to do it. also i have problems with "pop ups" on my lap top so i had to e-mail them to my desk top. Hey i was boarded on mon! (and don't tell me to go cut the grass)

[Rverge]

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[Rverge]

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[jms62]

Originally Posted by admin

Hi Rich
thanks
If you use only these contenders from these races
The Top 5 Total Energy and Primary Line score
has done very very well over the years

The whole issue of the creation of Val 4
came from my reading and talking to Doc about the
pacelines from many of your listed races

Thanks for the reminder

Bills as far as the lines used for the above contenders, is the method to use the lines that identified the contenders or is it open to choose best out of last 3 for the above contenders.

regards,
Jim

[socantra]

I don't think you need to limit yourself just to those lines, but most of the time it will work out that way. You don't want to use a line out of a minor allowance, but I remember that Smarty Jones showed up much better using the line from The Rebel Stakes which is not a grade 1 or 2 than the line from the qualifying Arkansas Derby.

Dick

[admin]

Jim That is an interesting question

I am sure as Dick says It is possible that
a horses other lines in the past performances
could rate better than the Grade 1 or grade 2
Win or Place race that qaulifies the horse

I guess the basic Sartin paceline selection
guidelines of Best of the last three at a comperable
class level says it
I would say that its your judgement of the other races if
that race is a comperable class level

GS
Bill

[JimG]

I just ran the Derby through Val4 and I think there is an interesting decision to be made. Do you use Curlin's last line? If you do, he will show up best due to a superior speed fig. If you use second line back (thinking he might regress a bit), it is still a good line and puts him in the mix. I chose to use the second line back, which puts Curlin on the BL/BL third with a good line score but high energy rating but a balance of 10 (pretty high) for a contender. This is my first look at the Derby with Val4:

[JimG]

And my first look at the Ky Derby using RDSS: