What does the BL/BL rating tell us? - Pace and Cap

kahunab · 07-31-2026, 10:06 PM

Gentlemen, In answer to a couple of comments in my last post about Fractals I went back and looked at Follow Ups 74 and 67 . Comments about BL/BL ranks and returns, I wondered if the data came out the same in todays racing world. So I quired our database of almost 5000 races analyzing BL/BL and payouts. Here is the executive summary and attached is the full report breaking out surfaces and distances. Enjoy!

BLBL_Sprint_Route_Turf_Dirt_Report.pdf

Name: BLBL Exec Report.png
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Name: BLBL Exec Report.png
Views: 117
Size: 63.3 KB

shoeless · 08-02-2026, 02:11 PM

Dick

How did the test pick pacelines?

Is it possible to narrow to top3? There are a lot of 6 horse fields run.

Jeff

kahunab · 08-02-2026, 04:58 PM

Jeff,
Great questions.

Consistency sake we use the same line selection in our studies.

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If you open the linked file, you will find a complete breakdown of the data. As an example here is what the dirt sprint breakdown looks like.

Name: BLBL Sprint Dirt 2.jpg
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Name: BLBL Sprint Dirt 2.jpg
Views: 95
Size: 117.3 KB

Hope that helps!

shoeless · 08-03-2026, 11:49 AM

Dick

Thanks for the reply, this was good info

I meant that for the initial study instead of 5 do it for 3

Jeff

kahunab · 08-03-2026, 12:02 PM

Jeff,
I think you can just add the 1's, 2's and 3's to get the number in the top 3 positions. In the sprint example above, adding the top 3 percentages for winners we get 64.74% in the top 3 and for place horses we get 57.33% in the top 3.

Dick

shoeless · 08-03-2026, 12:21 PM

Dick

Thanks for the reply, I was writing back to tell you a wise
member here told me what to do.

Sorry for confusion

Jeff

07-31-2026, 10:06 PM	#1
kahunab Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Colorado Posts: 312	What does the BL/BL rating tell us? Gentlemen, In answer to a couple of comments in my last post about Fractals I went back and looked at Follow Ups 74 and 67 . Comments about BL/BL ranks and returns, I wondered if the data came out the same in todays racing world. So I quired our database of almost 5000 races analyzing BL/BL and payouts. Here is the executive summary and attached is the full report breaking out surfaces and distances. Enjoy! BLBL_Sprint_Route_Turf_Dirt_Report.pdf __________________ Haakon 47 'Something magical happens when you bring together a group of people from different disciplines with a common purpose.' Mark Stefik Palo Alto Research Centre Fellow

08-02-2026, 04:58 PM	#3
kahunab Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Colorado Posts: 312	Jeff, Great questions. Consistency sake we use the same line selection in our studies. If you open the linked file, you will find a complete breakdown of the data. As an example here is what the dirt sprint breakdown looks like. Hope that helps! __________________ Haakon 47 'Something magical happens when you bring together a group of people from different disciplines with a common purpose.' Mark Stefik Palo Alto Research Centre Fellow

08-03-2026, 12:02 PM	#5
kahunab Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Colorado Posts: 312	Jeff, I think you can just add the 1's, 2's and 3's to get the number in the top 3 positions. In the sprint example above, adding the top 3 percentages for winners we get 64.74% in the top 3 and for place horses we get 57.33% in the top 3. Dick __________________ Haakon 47 'Something magical happens when you bring together a group of people from different disciplines with a common purpose.' Mark Stefik Palo Alto Research Centre Fellow

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08-02-2026, 02:11 PM	#2
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,609	Dick How did the test pick pacelines? Is it possible to narrow to top3? There are a lot of 6 horse fields run. Jeff

08-03-2026, 11:49 AM	#4
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,609	Dick Thanks for the reply, this was good info I meant that for the initial study instead of 5 do it for 3 Jeff

08-03-2026, 12:21 PM	#6
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,609	Dick Thanks for the reply, I was writing back to tell you a wise member here told me what to do. Sorry for confusion Jeff