Wo

[Mitch44]

Here you go Jon, this is a quick look as we're going out to dinner & I'll make some blind bets before I leave. Best of luck.
1st 4-5-8 Only $ here is with the # 5. Of the 2 FTS the 4 is the best Risk reward not there on either.
The bet is EX. 5 w' 4 & 8
EX 4 & 8 w 5
DD 1st 5 w/ 4 8
4 & 8 w 5
# 5 to Win
5 w/ 5 DD

Note # 5 in the 1st has a big class edge & # 5 in 2ne race has my w/o pattern.

2nd race 4-5-8-
# 5 win bet
Ex 5 w/ 4-8
8 , 4 w/ 5
DD 4.8 w/ , 1-5-6
Note # 6 has my w/o pattern & is 10-1
5 w/ 1-5-6-

I'll bet these blind w/out knowing odds.
Mitch44

[Mitch44]

4th 3-6-7
on the fly , have to go.

Mitch44

[Mitch44]

I'm back :
8TH 3-4=8 W
W bet 3 3 & 8
EX 3,8/2 4
EX 2-4/ 38

DD 3,8/ 3-4-6
DD 2,4/ 3-4-6

Mitch 44

[Mitch44]

1 st Race # 5 was bet down to odds on , a terrible le bet . I would have eliminated it from consideration . That's the disadvantage of posting before the race. I watch the odds after designing a bet . I don't take any short payoffs if it beats me its not a big deal as my longer odds picks more then compensates for it.
For those wanting told how to bets , figure it out yourselves , what more to you want?
Plus I have no idea what your comfort level , or size of bankroll etc.
Mitch44

[Mitch44]

Terrible day, nothing. That's what happens when I don't do my normal Hcp. nor know the odds prior for adjustments in picks.
A good lesson I already knew but the reinforcement of it was positive. Now back to doing what I normally do.
Very few views which is good, they didn't lose money.

Mitch44

[atlasaxis]

Mitch,

Honestly, this may have been one of the most educational posts in the entire discussion.

Truthfully, I would rather see a losing day with the wagers, thought process, adjustments, and follow-up explanation than a winning ticket posted afterward with no explanation of how it got there.

What you showed here was real-time thinking:
class evaluation, workout patterns, exacta structure, doubles, odds sensitivity, and then afterward explaining why the approach failed and how odds changed the equation.

That’s real gambling discussion.

In many ways, when you win you learn very little because you got paid for what you already thought you knew. It’s when you lose and then honestly analyze the race, the wager, the assumptions, and the adjustments that real learning takes place.

To me, that teaches far more than simply posting a score after the fact because people can actually follow the decision-making process from beginning to end.

Win or lose, that kind of transparency and accountability has real value and is appreciated.

Tom

[Mitch44]

Thanks atlasaxis:

I value my integrity and never would lie about my results. I kn0w they have long meets up there but they must have just opened. I believe it was 3 races had at least three 90 day and more layoff horses. Several over 200 days. Some even with a class edge failed to run back to previous form. Additionally 2 maiden races.

Worked these very quickly do to other commitments. Where I make my money is through analysis of the horses and race its self.

Many advise to wait for a track after open till most horses have had a race over the track. Haven't run into this but sound advice.

Not watching the odds was departmental. I.e. 1st race the 5 was bet down, had I been watching I would have changed my bet and would have had the winner. I eliminate low paying horses in my DD & EX. And when the favorite wins the payoffs don't justify the risk.
Now its back to the stock Mgt. where I make some serious money & next time I play the horses it'll be doing what I normally do.

Mitch44

[cratman]

Originally Posted by atlasaxis

Mitch,

Honestly, this may have been one of the most educational posts in the entire discussion.

Truthfully, I would rather see a losing day with the wagers, thought process, adjustments, and follow-up explanation than a winning ticket posted afterward with no explanation of how it got there.

What you showed here was real-time thinking:
class evaluation, workout patterns, exacta structure, doubles, odds sensitivity, and then afterward explaining why the approach failed and how odds changed the equation.

That’s real gambling discussion.

In many ways, when you win you learn very little because you got paid for what you already thought you knew. It’s when you lose and then honestly analyze the race, the wager, the assumptions, and the adjustments that real learning takes place.

To me, that teaches far more than simply posting a score after the fact because people can actually follow the decision-making process from beginning to end.

Win or lose, that kind of transparency and accountability has real value and is appreciated.

Tom

Agree that the specifics of the decision-making of a player with a long-time record of success is very valuable. Thanks Mitch