My First Practice Run

[cmckeever]

Well, I thought I would try a practice run (No bets) at Parx 1/22 using the Four Factor Method. I have to go over this and see where I made mistakes. I know of two already. Here are the results:

This is my first foray into betting the Four Factor method. Tried a four horse $1 Exacta Boxed (cost $12.00, I think) and a five horse $1 Exacta Wheel (1,2/1,2,3,4,5 for $8, I think)

Parx, 1/22/2026, Race 1:
Picks: 6,1,5,8,2 Results: 1,2,3,8,6,5,7 (#6 horse faded out in the last 4 races)
$1 Exacta Paid $21, 70 Exacta Boxed -$12.00
$1 Exacta Paid $21.70 Exacta Wheel ($21.70-$8.00) = $13.70

I cannot vouch for the calculations, but I am sure it is pretty close.

Cedric

Parx, 1/22/2026, Race 2:
Picks: 3,4,2,7,1 Results: 1,4,3,2,7,5
$1 Exacta Paid $38.40 Exacta Boxed -$12.00
$1 Exacta Paid $38,40 Exacta Wheel ($38.40-$8.00) = $30.40
Running Total Exacta Box: -$12 -$12 = -$24
Running Total Exacta Wheel: $9.70+$30.40 = $40.10

Parx, 1/22/2026, Race 3:
Picks: 3,4,2a,1,5 Results: 1,3,4,2,6,5
$1 Exacta Paid $15.30 Exacta Boxed ($15.30 -$12.00) = $3.30
$1 Exacta Paid $38,40 Exacta Wheel ($15.30-$8.00) = $7.30
Running Total Exacta Box: -$24 + $3.30 = -$20.70
Running Total Exacta Wheel: $40.10 + ,$7.30 = $47.40

Parx, 1/22/2026, Race 4:
Picks: 1,7,5, 4,6 Results: 7,5 4, 6, 1
$1 Exacta Paid $8.70 Exacta Boxed ($8.70-$12) = -$3.30
$1 Exacta Paid $8.70 Exacta Wheel ($8.70-$8.00) = $0.70
Running Total Exacta Box: -$20.70 - $3.30 = -$24.00
Running Total Exacta Wheel: $47.40 + $0.70 = $48.00
Parx, 1/22/2026, Race 5:
Picks: I would have skipped this, race only had 4 horses Results 3,1,6,7 $2 Exacta paid $8.80

Parx, 1/22/2026, Race 6:
Picks: 4, 6, 1, 7, 8 Results 6,1,7,3,4,2,8
$1 Exacta Paid $33.30 Exacta Boxed ($33.30-$12) = $21.30
$1 Exacta Paid $8.70 Exacta Wheel ($33.30-$8.00) = $25.30
Running Total Exacta Box: -$24.00 +$21.30 = -$2.70
Running Total Exacta Wheel: $48.00 + $25.30 = $73.30

Parx, 1/22/2026, Race 7: This one hurt, although I did hit the box exacta, I should have gotten the wheel exacta. The stats (Four Factor) for #7 had 4 numbers and for #5 had 3 numbers so I took the #7 first. Then I looked at the individual horses’ stats and #5 was outstanding as was #1. But I stuck with #7 for my second pick.
Picks: 1, 7, 5, 6,3 Results: 5,6,7,2,8,3,1,4
$1 Exacta Paid $ 107.70 Exacta Boxed ($107.70 -$12) = $97.70
$1 Exacta Paid $ 107.70 Exacta Wheel (-$8.00)
Running Total Exacta Box: $ 107.70 -$2.70 = $105.70
Running Total Exacta Wheel: $73.30 -$8.00 = $65.30

Parx, 1/22/2026, Race 8: Has two horses without data. NO BET
Picks: 7,5,3,6,4 Results: 1,2,5,3,7,4,6 #1 and #2 the horses with no data, #2 was favorite.
$1 Exacta paid $13.50

Parx, 1/22/2026, Race 9:
Picks: 5,2,3,7,6 Results: 2,3,4,5,1,7,6
$1 Exacta Paid $ 13.50 Exacta Boxed ($13.50 -$12) = $1.50
$1 Exacta Paid $ 107.70 Exacta Wheel ($13.50 -$8) = $5.50
Running Total Exacta Box: $105.70 +1.50 = $107.20
Running Total Exacta Wheel: $61.30 + $1.5 = $70.80

Parx, 1/22/2026, Race 10:
Picks: 5,4,3,9,7 Results: 3,7,2,8,5,9,4,2
$1 Exacta Paid $ 8.60 Exacta Boxed ($8.6 0-$12) = $-3.40
$1 Exacta Paid $ 8.60 Exacta Wheel ($8.60 -$8.00) = $0.60
Running Total Exacta Box: $107.20 -$3.40 $103.80
Running Total Exacta Wheel: $62.80 + $0.60 = $71.40

[dadams6357]

Its looks pretty good to me.
Played 10 races and hit most of them.
Keep up the good work
Don

[AwesomeAgain]

looks as if your getting the hang of it.

[DanBoals]

wow... nicely done

you had winner and place in your top 5 in every race

i ignored the 4th race since it only had 5 horses, saw that you already ignored the 5th

am guessing this was on paper, since you showed a win on 10th race and i am not seeing it - could be senior moment on my part, but i show the 7, your 5th pick, placed

looking at the wheel part i noticed you have a lot of low priced favorites in your top 2 to wheel with

what would happen if you saw the favorite at low odds, like under 2-1 in your top 2 choices, and then instead of wheeling your top 2 choices, you replaced the low priced favorite and with your 3rd choice?

howard used to tell people to hide their too low to bet odds favorite from the win bet or pass - but keep them in the exotics

without seeing your records, not sure what it would do

on this particular day though, your wheels would have picked up the 7th - which considering you had the winner or place in your top 2 already in 5 of the races, is not that much

of the 5 low odds favorites you had in your top 2, none won or placed on this day - if both your top 2 choices are under 2-1, that might be a pass race, it would be for me

using howard's idea of dropping win bets too low to profit from, i wonder what long term numbers would show on this wheeling idea

this is a really interesting post - thank you, gives us all stuff to think about