Update Update Update!

[kahunab]

Update:

As our modeling work develops we are finding some helpful data. We are currently using a modeling data base of over 220 races. The modeling data base will soon be available to everyone. The first part of our Protocol has been to demote any horse outside the top 5 BLBL to Secondary Contender status because we knew that 95% of the time the Key horse was in those top 5 BLBL horses. Secondary Contenders were eligible for Companion status for our Key Exacta and or Key Trifecta.

Now that we have BPP and PL back, we can look at the efficacy of all the factors at our disposal. Currently with over 220 races we are finding some interesting data. If we query to find out how often Win AND Place occur in the top 5 rankings in each category. Here are our initial findings.

• BLBL Top 5 ranked horses Contain the Win and Place horses 84% of the time.
• Profit Line Top 5 ranked horses Contain the Win and Place horses 86% of the time.
• BPP Top 5 ranked horses Contain the Win and Place horses 89% of the time.
• Rx1/2/3 Top 5 ranked horses Contain the Win and Place horses~91% of the time.

As our research evolves we may update our recommendations, but for now we recommend that as the first step in our Leverage Pace protocol we select the top 5 RX3 horses as our contenders for the Key and the Companions. Some of you may feel that BPP works better for you. Then please use what works for you. Ours is just a recommendation. We still need to check the Secondary contenders for Companion possibilities as about 9-10% of the time a companion horse will come from that category. But our focus remains on the top 5. The rest of our Protocol remains the same.

We will continue to add races to the modeling data base and keep you posted if there are any changes. We do assume that there will be some track to track differences but since we have used multiple tracks of different levels from Del Mar to Finger Lakes we are pretty confident that we are very close.

[Lt1]

Hi Dick. As someone who uses the RX3 screen to make my final wagering decisions I find it very useful to see his Key horse[s] for the races plus his LSP when they occur. I have made some very nice hits with the LSP horses[ especially when they have corollary support in the primary & or supplemental factors]. This horse may be another to look at as a companion horse. Thanks for all the hard work you & Bill have done on this approach.
Tim

[kahunab]

Thanks, LT! It seems to me all of this is pointless if we don't help each other with good data. Thank you for all the work you do with data and modeling.

PS. Try using the Leverage/Pace screen. If you look at the 4-score section, the RX section and the Leverage Pace section I think you will be amazed at how great a picture of the race you get. Check it out experientially for a few races. If you want we can talk over Zoom. But here is a example of what we are talking about.

In this case the winner was a Presser who had the best Early in a late race. We have Early pressure and a Presser with the best Early. It looks like he will have the energy to overcome the Earlys.
This is a really powerful screen.

Dick

[Lt1]

Dick unfortunately I can't get the new version to function on m7 computer due to my computers' new security function. Ted is working on that. Yes it sure would be easier to see it all on on screen. Here is another old survey I found in the RMATH 4 # thread which might be helpful to you & Bill/
Richie and I would talk daily about our selections and how he used the 4 number approach. The main factor was that horses having all 4 numbers[with at least 1 #3 rank] were winning between 85 to 90% of the races. Richie had and extensive data base. Since his untimely passing there hasn't been much in the way of follow ups on the approach. With this in mind I decided to conduct another 100 race survey. The tracks involved were Parx, MVR,LRL, and GP. The survey included all class levels[mdns to Stks] of the races I capped. Here are the results

Winning Horses with all 4 #s[with at least 1 #3 ranking]
80 of 100
Winning Horse with all 4 #s[no #3 ranking]
6 of 100
Winning Horses with 3 #s[regardless of rankings]
9 of 100
Winning Horse with 2 #s
2 of 100
Winning Horses with 1 #
2 of 100
Winning horse with 0 #s
1 of 100
So folks 86% of my winners had all 4 numbers and 9% had 3 numbers. In my humble opinion that's a pretty powerful stat and validates all of Richies' hard work and unselfish sharing of the info. I suggest that folks also read his longshot play approach.
Tim

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Lt1

Dick unfortunately I can't get the new version to function on m7 computer due to my computers' new security function. Ted is working on that.

Tim, if you recall, we DID get the latest version working on your computer, just had to navigate a few download issues. The issue was - per my note on the Download page - when you load up races assembled with a previous RDSS version, it crashed. Re-assembling them, or any new races going forward worked fine.

I didn't get that older races problem resolved before I left.

If you want, I can post the video I made of us downloading and installing successfully, let me know. It was just the usual complaints from Google Chrome browser, which you just have to work around.

Thanks for the stats!

Ted

[Lt1]

I remember you got it on but removed it re stated problem. So now I can download it and it should work because I still have the problem with staying signed in to the site. I will try down loading new version tonight or tomorrow and let you know what happens Glad to provide the stats. Hopefully thy help. If I find anymore useful surveys I will pass then on to you folks
Tim

[shoeless]

Hi

Thank you all for your hard work on this

What do you mean by leverage\pace parameters?


Jeff

[kahunab]

Jeff,
The Numbers in the blue box are the combined scores we call the Leverage/Pace Scores. When combined with the 4-Score ranks (Red Box) and the RX scores (Green Box) we get a very powerful look at the race. All these are found on the Leverage/Pace screen (Blue Oval). Roll your cursor over the VT, CVT, BVT and BVTR and it will show you the value of the parameter we want to be below. I.E. with VT we want to be below or equal to 7. CVT we want to be below or equal to 11, BVT we want to be below or equal to 11, and BVTR we want to be below or equal to 13. Hope that helps,

Dick

[shoeless]

Dick

. I.E. with VT

What is the I.E.?

Jeff

[kahunab]

Jeff,

Instead of I.E. substitute the word, "Therefore". So it should read, "Therefore, with VT we want to be below or equal to 7."
Sorry for any confusion.

Dick