4 factor study now with Rx3 info

[Bill Lyster]

Go to the 4 factor sort page. I sent an email to all the members whose email I had. this file is what I am referring to.

The screen shot is just a partial page look at Non-maiden dirt races from Saratoga. The 4 factor info in yellow is summed in the 4Fctr column and a new column on the right sums the BL+Rx3+TSF3+TE info.

Three factor horses with poor CSR are shown in green with yellow CSR info. Notice how the new column totals soften the effect of the large original CSR info and how two of the non 4 factor horses who happen to have good Vdc and CSR put poor PL and BPP get better scores. If 18 is the parameter maximum then 91.5% could qualify as playable horses or perhaps would become ARROW horses.

The Rx3 data was not available in our original research. But notice that this new info does not override any of the total %ages for the other factors, even though the TSF3 top 4 hit 94% of the time. Also this new data is better than any of the VT, CVT, etc. info using the current parameters shown at the top of the columns.




Same spreadsheet with TURF non maidens. IN this case all 30 races shown.

Again, the new column data softens the effect of CSR >5 as well as for horses with >5 PL & BPP. Using 18 as max parameter score allows all but 4 horses to be considered. The 4 factor horses shown here are 73.3% whereas the new info lets 87% in. And in this case, for the races to date, this factor % is greater than any single one of the four factors top 4. This new data is better than any of the VT, CVT, etc. info using the current parameters shown at the top of the columns.



This data points to the factor that the info for turf racing has historically lagged that of dirt races. All of my research shows that the best factors in turf racing produce fewer winners than the same info for dirt races. We need to find something that points out turf winners better. More on this in another email I am working on.




One note of caution. We don't know if an 18 pt total will eliminate many or any horses, so we need more races to test against. You can see from the file I sent today which races were worked. So we can revisit those races to determine the efficacy of the 18 point total for this possible compound factor.

I will post more about turf factors in the next post to the group.

[Bill Lyster]

THIS IS INFO FOR KEY HORSES ONLY

There are a number of interesting factors with high hit rates for turf races at Saratoga. Study includes 30 races for non maidens.

From the Original Screen, horses that finished in the top 2 in the auto pick best of last three in their chosen race, in other words horses whose chosen race shows a win or place effort, win 60% of the time. Top 3-top 4 info is 83-87%

From the left side of the Segments Screen we get CBL computed beaten lengths. 97% of all KEY horses finished no worse than 3.0 lengths back. Only 1 of 30 KEY horses lost ground between 1c-2c-FIN! I noted that 4 horses lost ground between 1c and 2c but then gained more lengths at the finish such that there was a net gain between 1c-FIN. 1 horse was 3.8 back at 1C and 3.8 back at FIN. Note that about 20% of actual winning horses exceeded 3.0 at the FIN on this screen, so again, this info is only for KEY horses.


Turf Maidens KEY horse info

There have been 12 turf maiden races that I could use.

The top 2 TPP horses (ENERGY screen) were KEY horses 67 % and the rarely viewed Fractal N the top 2 were 75%. 11 of 12 Key horses were </= 3.1 on the CBL part of the Segments screen. Only 1 of 12 horses lost ground 1C-FIN.

[Ted Craven]

Here is this spreadsheet:

MasterTemplate6-Saratoga 2024 THRU 07.28.xlsx

Ted