When are our RDSS tools telling us we are looking at a chaos race and should pass!

[kahunab]

What does a chaos race look like and can we use these tools to know when to pass the race. Lets look at a couple of races that I think show us the evidence to support passing.

Let's start with DMR 3 on July 21. We start as always with our top 5 BL/BL horses as our data tells us we have 96% chance of having the Key horse in those 5.


We first notice that all the horses are layoff horses. We next notice how all the 4-Factor horses are missing factors except for the 8. The 3 best RX rated horses are secondary contenders. There is only one horse, the 9, that has a blue arrow in the L/P ratings meaning he is in parameters. We note as supporting evidence that all our contenders are all high odds horses. This race finished 8-6-3. It is possible to make the case for the 8 as the key but he is very late with no early in a race with little pressure up front. This really is a pass race.

Let's look at another race the same day at DMR.


Here again we look at a heavy concentration of layoff horse. Three very long layoff horses in our contenders for the Key. We next note how spread out the 4-Factor rating are. Same is true with the RX factors. The L/P scores shows again only one blue arrow horse, the 11. He is a long layoff horse with no PL or BPP his RX scores are OK and Pace ratings are OK. The only horse with consistent scores is the 3 but he has no early. Pass!

The race comes in 7-5-1. We made a good call to Pass!

Sometimes we encounter races like SAR7 on the 25th of July.


Here we see a 6 horse field and 3 horses, 2,5,and 6, have consistently good ratings across the board. With 15 QSP this race should run nuetral or TPR. I bet the 6 as I felt his ratings were stronger and he had an Early advantage over the other horses. I played him keyed with the 2 and 5. Let's see how I did.









The 3 worst rated horses come in before my 3 top rated horses. Sometimes a race just blows up regardless of our good handicapping.

The best laid plans of mice and men...

Oh well, another race in 15 minutes!

[bet2windo]

Dick,
The winner of the DMR race 3 example does'nt fit the 14RS but most of the contenders are QSP S horses. 8 highest rated TSF3. It would still be a CE type horse in a 14RS race, that could be bet as ITM horse or companion horse. I would open the NP tab to see what's going there to see how early and late rate the 8 horse.
Fred

[kahunab]

Hi Fred,
Your observations are great. When we see a chaos race like this, crazy things can and do happen. In a race with no pressure where we expect to slow the pace and screw the closers, a closer runs his whole race in the 3rd fraction and wins, gaining 5.25 lengths and 7 positions.



As you suggested looking at the New Pace screen we see that he is rated at the 4th best late if the race runs early (No Pressure). He is tied for number one Late if this were a Late race (Lots of pressure). Notice the pace is projected at 89 and every horse can run to an 89 another reason to think about a chaos race.



Is this what Bradshaw called a "paceless" race?

[bet2windo]

Dick,
We talked briefly in the group about neutral/paceless races could be judged what horses do have pace without being early. If we hide the 4 and 7 in the L/P four score box because of their bad numbers, it would probably move the remaining horses up. It leaves 3 Sustained rated horses.If you notice the 8 has number 1 TSF3 both before and after hides.
Fred