Saratoga 9 today. July 25, 2024

[kahunab]

Good Evening! I am working on new skills to post analysis of races. So let's see if I learned from Ted's tutelage last week. Let's take a look at SAR9 from today, Thursday, July 25, 2024.
First, we look at the Entries screen and we note that the 3,4,8 provide the early pressure with 20 QSP. We begin to think "other than Early" race. We also note that the Foreign horse the 11 has no PL or BPP which I have found to be a strong indicator for foreign horses. I move him to a secondary contender but may consider him for a companion horse.



Now we look at the RX screen. We immediately make our top 5 BL/BL horse contenders for the Key designation. All others become secondary contenders. Then we see that the 9,1,8 meet all the limits in the L/P approach. The 9 is missing the PL score and a NP score, and his BPP score is 5. Not in the top 3. He is the number one RX score and the number 1 L/P score. The 8 is number 3 PL and number 1 BPP, he is number 2 RX and number 2 L/P. He is also #1 late in LPR in a late race. The 1 horse has no PL, no BPP, Shaky RX and is 5 late. I think all this is telling us that we should eliminate the 1 for consideration as our Key horse.


We now look at the New Pace screen to see how the 9 and the 8 compare. The 9 has a better range than the 8 but they are not too far apart. Lows of 87 to 89. 9 has a better CSR of 199.99 to 192.83. So the 9 appears a bit better on this screen.



On the segments screen we see the 9 looking good if the race runs early or neutral. But we are expecting an other than Early race, ie Late. Look at the 9 and the 8 on the TS+F3 panel. they look again close but the 8 appears better if the race runs late.


One of the screens I have been watching anecdotally is the Position Analysis screen. This screen is supposed to tell us the average positionality the horse assumes in it past performances. What I read this to say is that the 8 averags 2.4 lengths off at the 2nd call and the 9 averages 4.9 and gains enough to be 2.0 off. The 8 is 2.4 off at the 2nd call and gets up to 1.8. I have no data to support that decision but am only watching to see who tends to be closer at the 2nd call in place to make a move.



I chose to bet the 8 because he would be closer up front, met all of our L/P standards, had better PL, BPP numbers, his Segments screen showed better late in the TS +F3 panel. I bet him to win and place.

[kahunab]

It turns out that it was a late race but our 8 was closer up front at each call than the 9. The 9 was much farther back and just couldn't make it up. The race was decided late in the stretch and we got a very nice win price.

[bet2windo]

Dick,
I tried using the tandem in NP. When I click the positional analysis tab, its blank. Am I using a different version of RDSS than the one used on the post?
Fred

[kahunab]

I am not sure about that. Try reloading the race and maybe the program. Mine has been a bit unstable.

Dick

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by bet2windo

Dick,
I tried using the tandem in NP. When I click the positional analysis tab, its blank. Am I using a different version of RDSS than the one used on the post?
Fred

Fred, try again now (refresh Registration, then restart). It looks like that experimental module of Bill's and mine is controlled by Module settings on your RDSS account. I just updated that and will do so for everyone else in the Study Group.

Though -- as Dick points out, this is experimental, not well modelled and may not necessarily make it into a public release. There is an accompanying screen at the horse-level which provides the data for each horse feeding into this summary screen, which I will enable in an upcoming beta release for this group (along with Results for those using the Bundle data plan, which is what I'm working on right now.)

Ted

[Ted Craven]

Dick, well done on the screenshots, and the good sizing of the images!

Comments - your steps felt very clear and consistent with what has been documented and discussed. It's good to have a number of examples of this: repetition makes the steps clearer. It's also good (for honesty/integrity) to have counter-examples as well where we follow the steps, the race is not too 'dissonant', we respect the model indicators, there is a potential price to be had - yet still lose. No worries - we lose.

I note that the #1 and #6, while in the Top 5 BLBL have NO TS Ratings (Prime Power or ProfitLine) - meaning their ranks were worse than 5th. According to long-term models by Dick Mathie and updated by Lt1 (Tim G) - these are a low-probability bet for Win (approaching ~90%), likely for Place as well. Your and Bill's recent modelling from July seems to back this up (see model sheet, separate thread). Removing those 2 from the Primary group clarifies the picture (only a bit - since you did not dwell on them in your analysis). I would have no hesitation in demoting them, or recommending that step.

Another good example here of respecting the so-called 'Rmath Long Shot' angle is to note that the #3 horse has those 2 factors (PP/PL) ranked in Top 3 and is a good consideration for ITM or Companion. I didn't get the TS ratings for SAR yesterday, but I suspect that by demoting at least the #1 who was otherwise a Key contender, the #5 gains or retains good support for Companion status - and thus the nice Exacta and very nice Trifecta is also easily at hand.

Thanks Dick!

Ted

[bet2windo]

It works now on today's card.It doesn't seem to work on my past races. When I click that tab in those races a message on screen says "sorry this screen is not yet available". In the example, it shows a better position at 2nd call, which gives to me a different perspective for other than early horses.
Thanks.

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by bet2windo

It works now on today's card.It doesn't seem to work on my past races. When I click that tab in those races a message on screen says "sorry this screen is not yet available". In the example, it shows a better position at 2nd call, which gives to me a different perspective for other than early horses.
Thanks.

Try re-assembling a past race rather than simply loading it from the Cache.

Ted

[Bill Lyster]

This screen is a work in progress from a long time ago. It started out as a way to incorporate what The Hat said about gaining positions and passing horses. What I recall him saying was that it took one unit of energy to improve position and another unit of energy to gain lengths on those ahead of you.

All of the numbers in the Calls, Positions and Lengths columns are the AVERAGES for the number of races in the past performances.

Calls for each race are positive or negative based on whether or not the horse gained between the first and second call, the 2nd call and stretch, and from the stretch to the finish. So for sprints the max. number of calls is 3, for routes 4. Each race in the PPs gets a number, they are totaled and divided by the number of races in the PPs.

Positions gained is the +/- positions gained from 1C - Fin. So 5th by 6 and 2nd by a head at the finish gets +3; a winning horse 5th at 1C gets +4.

The lengths column is incorrect in this early version because I allowed winning margin to be added in. So 5th by 6 and winning by 10 lengths is shown as part of the average (It should be 6 for such a race but in this version its 6+10 which I now know is incorrect.

If a horse was 3rd at 1C, 2nd at 2C, 1st at Stretch call and won the race, it got 1 pt for 1c-2c, a second pt for 2c-str and nothing from stretch to finish, total 2 points. The horse can get minus points the same way and gaining in one section while losing in another cancels out. so a horse that goes 1-3-1-1 gets "0" points (+1, -1, 0 = 0). if it goes 1-2-3-4 it gets -3 pts (-1, -1, -1 = -3).

In this example the 11 gets 0 pts because it only had foreign races.

For the rest of the field if you line up the races from E to Sustained you will find very few E and EP with positive Calls or Positions. The only way to get a 0-0 rating would be to have won each race wire to wire. So you can assess the early part of the race by favoring the horse with the most positive numbers or said another way the least negative of numbers.

P, SP, and S horses almost have to have + numbers because if they don't, it means they cannot pass anyone.

The winning 8 shows the ability over all of its races to generate positive numbers eliminating the other earlies. The 1 and 6 are dwarfed by the 5-7-9 and we see the average 2C position of the 8 as 2.4 with the 3 later horses being 4-5 positions behind the leader, meaning they have to exert multiple units of energy to pass other horses and gain lengths on those ahead of them.

Another set of data shows promise here. If you take the average 1c position of the 8 (2.5) and subtract the average number of positions gained (.7) you get 1.8 and doing the same for the 5 horse (4.1-2.5) shows a possible final position of 1.6. The race finished 8-5-3-2 and everyone behind the 8 had to expend energy units to move up from 4th or 5th position to beat either one of these two.

Like I said, my logic has not been revisited for a couple of years and I need some quiet think time to iron out the kinks. But if any of you have suggestions to further this tool, let us know.

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by bet2windo

Dick,
I tried using the tandem in NP. When I click the positional analysis tab, its blank. Am I using a different version of RDSS than the one used on the post?
Fred

When the original idea for this screen happened, I theorized that info from maiden races might not be indicative of how horses ran after their maiden win (i.e., the horses matured and developed a repeatable running style.) So if you were working a maiden race there is likely to be no info. I did ask Ted, to program a toggle so that maiden race info could be used. Its supposed to be located to the right of all the data near the top of the screen. Sometimes it does not show at all and I don't know why. Ted and I need to talk to resolve this. My thinking now is that all the info in the PPs should be evaluated for average calls, positions and lengths so we would eliminate the option that only allowed us to see non maiden races.