Horizontal Bet Structure Strategy

[rdiam]

The only reason to make a horizontal bet (i.e., DD, p3, p4, p5, p6) is if you expect it to pay better than a win parlay. There can be several reasons for this: the takeout is spread over multiple races, OR those betting in the pari-mutuel pool make strategy mistakes. We cannot do anything about the takeout, but we can structure our horizontal bets to take advantage of other's mistakes.

The first step is the categorize each race as chalky/predictable or open/chaos. The former is characterized by the most likely winner coming from the top 2-3 betting choices, while the latter is characterized by the most likely winner NOT coming from the top 2-3 betting choices. A simple way to sort your races is the use the ML of the favorite => with a ML of 2-1 or lower, then call the race chalky/predictable, or ML of 5-2 or higher, then call the race open/chaos. NOTE: this procedure works best when the ML maker takes his job seriously, and the ML is not being made by the night janitor. Also, be careful when using this method for races on wet tracks or taken off the turf, since the published ML was not compiled for such conditions, aside from the fact that there will usually be many scratches to distort things.

One each race is categorized, we then look for the following patterns:

DD: we want the front end to be open/chaos, and the back end to be chalky/predictable

p3: we require the sequence to contain ONLY 1 chalky/predictable races, and it cannot come at the start of the sequence, and we prefer it to come at the end of the sequence

p4: we require the sequence to contain AT MOST 2 chalky/predictable races, neither of which can come at the start of the sequence, and we prefer a chalky/predictable race at the end of the sequence

p5: same requirements as p4

Reasoning: most don't want to get knocked out of their horizontal bet in the first race of the sequence, so they will generally include the top 2-3 betting favorites in their bets. If we can correctly analyze that this first race will NOT run chalky/predictable, there will be "dead" money wasted by others in the pool bet on these losing favorites that help enhance our payout.

Similarly, most tend to spread in the last race of the sequence, so if that race is chalky/predictable, there is again "dead" money bet on losing longshots that help enhance our payout.

There you have it: like anything in pari-mutuel betting, try to zig when others are zagging, and zag when others are zigging.

Richard